Ian Ogg, Nic Doggett and Matt Brocklebank nominate the horses they think could be over-priced in Saturday's William Hill Hurdle at Newbury.
The Hardest Geezer (Philip Hobbs and Johnson White)
by Nic Doggett
The top of the market is dominated by horses who were involved in the finishes of similar handicaps at Ascot and Sandown, won respectively by Dance And Glance and All In You, but the horse that looks overpriced – who also ran at Ascot – is The Hardest Geezer who is available at 20/1.
Fourth at Ascot, beaten just over a length, he then performed with credit in a valuable Windsor handicap won by Hot Fuss. Held up off the pace at a track that appears to favour prominent racers (first two home always close to the pace, replay below), he shaped as if still improving there, and from the same BHA mark of 122 he looks the value call to at least hit the frame.
Trained by Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, the Malinas gelding has a little more experience under his belt than some of his rivals, but that may not be a bad thing as it could seem a long way home from the final turn in what looks likely to be quite testing ground.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsSerious Challenge (Fergal O'Brien)
by Ian Ogg
His win at Haydock was his fourth from just eight starts and a 5lb rise puts Serious Challenge on 132 so he'll be conceding weight to the lightly raced leading fancies. He hasn't had too much racing himself, though, and as a 100+ rated performer on the Flat, it's feasible that he can rate higher still in this sphere.
He was too keen over two and a half on his reappearance which should have teed him up for the Greatwood Hurdle but he was free there, too, before losing his action and being pulled-up. He settled far better on Merseyside when ridden with more restraint and ran out a ready winner from Bucephalus and Brentford Hope, who won next time before running so well against The New Lion in the Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham.
This is obviously a good deal tougher but he was sent off at just 13/2 at Cheltenham and I doubt we've seen the best of him yet.

Lanesborough (Ben Pauling)
by Matt Brocklebank
Taking a 14lb rise in the ratings and landing a race such as the William Hill Hurdle is never going to be simple but there's definitely a case to be made for Lanesborough bouncing back this weekend.
He was very much a slow-burner for Ben Pauling last season, so much so that he started off with a BHA mark of just 101 and was beaten in two handicaps before ending his campaign with a ready success off 108 at Warwick last February.
The soft ground appeared to be in his favour that day and there was no shortage of ease underfoot when bolting up on seasonal debut at Doncaster in mid-December (form worked out well).
Then came the hike in the weights and on the face of it he's now been anchored by the assessor. However, he was tackling a longer trip at Kempton in the Lanzarote last time, while the ground would have been plenty quick enough for him too.
He was beaten 10 lengths in the end by Iberico Lord, after coming under the pump a fair way out, but still shaped like a horse with a bit more to offer under the right conditions, and a forward ride back over two miles on what might be testing ground could see him in a much better light again.
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