William Hill Futurity analysis: David Johnson Timeform verdict

While the end of season Group Ones are designed to be deciders of the relative merit of the top horses in the here and now, the 2-y-o events in this category fulfil a second role, for we are all as eager to interpret what they mean for the future just as much as the present.

The Dewhurst is usually the race that throws up the highest rated juvenile, and it’s odds on it will do so again, even if Gewan (Timeform rated 118) is on the lower end of the spectrum of typical winners of that contest.

In terms of the future though, the Futurity Trophy (or Racing Post Trophy as it has also been known) comfortably leads the way in terms of producing future classic winners the following year.

This century, seven Dewhurst winners have gone on to win a British classic, the five 2000 Guineas winners Rock of Gibraltar, Frankel, Dawn Approach, Churchill and Chaldean and two Derby winners in Sir Percy and City of Troy. By comparison, the Futurity has produced the winners of eleven British classics. They are St Leger winners Brian Boru and Kingston Hill, Derby winners High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized and Auguste Rodin, 2000 Guineas winners Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko (in consecutive seasons in 2018/19/20) and Camelot who won both the 2000 Guineas and Derby in 2012.

Although a field of five is the smallest for the Futurity since 2011, the form of the principals looks up to scratch for the race, a provisional figure of 117 for Hawk Mountain 1lb higher than the one awarded to Hotazhell the year before, 2lb below that of 2022 winner Auguste Rodin and the same given to 2021 winner Luxembourg.

Both of his stablemates listed from that trio were aimed at the Guineas and O’Brien suggested that could be on the agenda for Hawk Mountain with his dam having contested the fillies’ equivalent.

Hawk Mountain finds himself at the top of the Derby betting now and he looks a more likely winner of that race than a Guineas at this stage, although he’ll have to overcome the hoodoo that has affected his trainer’s previous 21 winners of the Beresford Stakes, with not a single one able to follow up at Epsom the following June.

In truth, Hawk Mountain’s Derby claims don’t look a great deal more compelling at this stage than several of his stablemates.

The mile-and-a-half trip will surely suit Action (116) at least as well and as a close relation to this year’s Derby winner Lambourn, it’s easy to see him plotting a similar route next spring. Pierre Bonard gets the chance to enhance his claims over a mile and a quarter in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on Sunday while even today’s beaten favourite Benvenuto Cellini (still 109p) is far from out of the Derby picture, giving the impression he was the least suited by Doncaster’s extreme conditions, and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he still emerges as the best of the trio next season.

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