Our expert looks at the Cazoo Derby picture and considers who might be next to throw their hat into the ring.
Just how solid can Stone Age be?
For many it may have been a case of ‘checkmate’ when Ryan Moore kicked Stone Age five and a half lengths clear in Sunday’s Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown, but there must be a chance one or two pieces are yet to be played in this intriguing Classic conundrum.
Stone Age has the pedigree, the progressive profile, the trainer, and now the sort of performance which entitles him to be a leading contender for a Cazoo Derby. Initial bookmaker reaction was a best-priced 4/1 (Sky Bet) but as the dust settled and the soundbites flowed at a pre-arranged Ballydoyle press trip on Monday morning the remaining 3/1 was rapidly drying up, William Hill going as short as 9/4.
However, since Galileo and High Chaparral completed the Leopardstown-Epsom double in 2001 and 2002 respectively, no other horse has managed it and that includes 11 from the same Aidan O'Brien stable. Backers of Bolshoi Ballet as 11/8 favourite in last year’s Derby won’t need reminding of that fact, and with all due respect we surely can’t yet be anointing Stone Age on the back of his punched-out victory over Andrew Oliver’s 98-rated Glory Daze.
Is he even O’Brien’s best chance of success?
Changingoftheguard and Star Of India have hardly been the talk of the town since winning their Chester trials in the Vase and the Dee Stakes last week, and what of Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes winner United Nations – is he being overlooked as a general 12/1 shot?
He was no match for Coroebus over a mile at two but it would be foolish to beat him with that particular stick – especially now – and he looked rusty in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom last month.
From there he went on to beat a horse being well talked-up heading into Lingfield and did so by seemingly proving more battle-hardened and more straightforward. He’ll look to follow 2019 Derby hero Anthony Van Dyck’s path next month and this full-brother to Christmas might just sparkle under the big lights.
What now for the Godolphin challenge?
Walk Of Stars was the aforementioned hype-horse denied by United Nations at Lingfield, once again looking green and gawky when asked for some effort, as he had done when edging out Hafit at Newbury – this time a couple of more pronounced swerves to the right probably costing him the race.
Charlie Appleby now has something of a race against time to straighten out the talented son of Dubawi for the first Saturday in June, while he also has a decision to make prior to that on May 30.
Noon on the Monday of Derby week is the cut-off point for a supplementary entry and clearly the £75,000 stake isn't going to prove a sticking point for the Godolphin operation when it comes to potentially adding Nations Pride into the mix.
He left William Buick with that now-familiar broad grin on the Rowley Mile (does anyone ride the place better than he?) when scampering away from Hoo Ya Mal and Subastar in the 10-furlong Listed race on the Friday of the Guineas meeting (replay below), making it four straight wins on the back of a debut second at Yarmouth last September.
The stoutly-bred Nahanni punched his Derby ticket by winning the Blue Riband while Walk Of Stars and Chester second New London are obviously not done with yet (stablemate Adayar was beaten at Lingfield before prevailing last June), but Teofilo colt Nations Pride is the one on a roll and undeniably has a certain X-factor about him.
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Can anything else muscle in on the action?
It’s a while since Goodwood’s Cocked Hat Stakes – this year run on Friday May 20 – served as a serious Derby trial (Troy remains the only horse to have followed up at Epsom in 1979) so it’s basically down to Thursday’s Dante Stakes to help sort the pretender from the contender when it comes to the rest of the British challenge.
If they can’t get the better of O’Brien’s Ballysax fourth Bluegrass then the game would appear up, and it’s hoped either Magisterial or Desert Crown can really make their mark at York.
The Gosdens’ Frankel colt Magisterial raced with a bit of swagger on the front end when downing Appleby shortie Ruling Dynasty – to whom he was conceding a 7lb penalty – at Leicester last month but it could be significant that Sir Michael Stoute was responsible for the third home there, Crystal Delight (runs 7.40 Windsor on Monday evening).
The subsequent weight of money for the Stoute-trained Desert Crown ahead of his seasonal reappearance strongly suggests he at least shapes up well alongside Crystal Delight and big things are expected, although at revised odds it's definitely worth considering the next three home from his Nottingham maiden romp in November have all suffered defeat in races of varying strength earlier this spring.
Collateral form screams Fergie-time
Desert Crown is shorter than he should be at a general 6/1 and while his price has been crashing in the past couple of weeks it’s interesting to note the winter 25/1 about El Bodegon has remained firmly intact.
This in spite of his Criterium de Saint-Cloud form working out exceptionally well, having beaten new Derby favourite Stone Age, as well as Sandown third Goldspur and the Irish 2,000 Guineas-bound Buckaroo in the French mud last term.
Perhaps soft ground is a prerequisite given all three wins at two came in pretty dire conditions, but that’s debateable if his brother is anything to go by. Said big bro Best Solution won the Lingfield Derby Trial in 2017 before giving it a very decent crack from a prominent pitch on quick ground and ending up eighth in Wings Of Eagles’ madcap Derby three weeks later.
It’ll be some story if relative fledgling James Ferguson is able to bring El Bodegon to boiling point and get the better of whatever O’Brien, Appleby, Stoute, Gosden et al have to offer at the top table next month. But despite Stone Age's Sunday demolition job it does still have the feel of a slightly odd - and open - year in light of Luxembourg's absence.
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