Sceau Royal was flawless at Sandown
Sceau Royal was flawless at Sandown

What Happens Next: Ante-post betting round-up and selections


This week's ante-post column highlights a 9/1 Cheltenham Festival fancy and a 16/1 Manchester City-related football bet.

Racing

There were a few potential ante-post bets to spring up over the weekend but none stronger than perhaps the most high profile – Sceau Royal in the Racing Post Arkle.

He was brilliant in what looked a very strong renewal of the randoxhealth.com Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. In winning by 11 lengths he was comprehensively overturning Cheltenham form with North Hill Harvey, and establishing himself as the best two-mile novice on this side of the Irish Sea.

While he was undoubtedly suited by the way the race was run, there was no element of fluke about the performance and he looked a cut above a high-quality field. Clearly well served by a strong pace, he travelled and jumped well and finished full of running.

He's as low as 6/1 for the Arkle but 9/1 in a place and that looks too big. Why? Well, current favourite Footpad races for the same owners and they’re unlikely to run their top two novices against each other. Crucially, Footpad has been campaigned over further which brings the JLT into play for him.

Sceau Royal is a two-miler pure and simple – a rattlingly good one. He’ll have one more run – maximum – before the Festival and will head there, health permitting, with a huge chance. Looking down the ante-post lists, it’s a race that lacks depth and it’s hard to find many potential springers in there.

For me, we’ve already had the crucial trial. It was at Sandown on Saturday. (Dave Ord)

Football

Derby day was not a good one for the bookies with Manchester City justifying favouritism at Old Trafford and total domination in 2017/18 for Pep Guardiola's side moving a step closer - liabilities on the Treble, Quadruple and unbeaten season are massive across the industry.

For me, the best ante-post angle on City right now does not involved them as a team but one of their players.

I'm surprised to see David Silva on offer at 16/1 to be named PFA Player of the Year.

Team-mate Kevin de Bruyne is taking up far too much of the book for my liking at 1/2 and while he has played well so far, I think it's also fair to say he's not maintained a ridiculously high standard set earlier in the season.

Noel Gallagher's appearance as a Sky Sports pundit on Sunday was somewhat bizarre but one interesting thing he did say was that Silva was City's best-ever player.

David Silva celebrates his late winner
David Silva: Too big at 16s to be PFA Player of the Year

I can see that opinion being reflected more widely in the media in the coming weeks and months if Silva continues his excellent form and that media chatter usually does play a part in the outcome of this award.

What is definitely in Silva's favour is that he's certainly got plenty of credit in the bank. How many better players have there been in the Premier League since he arrived in 2010?

Playing a key role in a team which looks set to utterly dominate will stand him in good stead here and the 16s looks worth snapping up. (Andy Schooler)

Golf

Shane Lowry and Graeme McDowell teamed up to finish second in the QBE Shootout on Sunday, beaten by US duo Steve Stricker and Sean O'Hair in a competitive renewal of the end-of-season exhibition.

Lowry is 100/30 to make next year's Ryder Cup team with Sky Bet, with McDowell 7/1 to return to the side having been absent from the 2016 renewal.

Of the two, Lowry makes by far the most appeal and he'd be a welcome addition to the side at Le Golf National, where his ball-striking and ability to perform under tough, breezy conditons would be huge assets.

McDowell, now well outside the world's top 100, is probably half the price he should be.

Perhaps of greater significance in an otherwise quiet week in golf was the release of Rory McIlroy's early-2018 schedule.

The four-time major champion will return to action in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in mid-January where his incredible course record will doubtless see him go off a fairly short price, despite having been out of action since October.

A note of caution: McIlroy's record there is superb in terms of consistency, but he's never won it. Form figures of 11-5-3-2-2-MC-2-2-3 tell you that yes, this is another desert golf course he loves, but that he's always going to be somewhat vulnerable to an upset on what's usually his first appearance in some time.

The event has seen the likes of Gary Stal, Pablo Larrazabal, Robert Rock and Jamie Donaldson upstage much bigger names in the past and it would be no surprise were a spanner again thrown in the works. Even this year's winner Tommy Fleetwood was unfancied at close to 100/1.

McIlroy will then play in the Dubai Desert Classic, an event he's won twice, before heading to California and his first start in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. That's a strange addition to his schedule and may well include teaming up with his father, Gerry, rather than signifying that McIlroy feels he's particularly suited to the courses in use.

Similar comments apply to the Genesis Open on the outskirts of LA, where he was 20th in 2016. In fact in his entire career - one which spans almost a decade now - McIlroy has made just five starts in California, only three outside of majors, so what's clear is he wants to get in some match practice before the Masters.

Rory McIlroy in action at the British Masters
Rory McIlroy: Will play often in early 2018

Once the west coast swing is over, McIlroy heads home to Florida where he's familiar with both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Honda Classic, but again there's a new event on the schedule - the Valspar Championship. Played on one of the shorter, tighter courses in the Sunshine State, it's not an obvious fit for him, either.

Why is all this relevant? Because it's possible that McIlroy takes some time to rediscover his best form after a fairly significant injury, more so now that his schedule has been revealed.

The important thing for him and us is to be patient and remember who we're talking about. Hopes are high that McIlroy will be back to winning ways at some point next year and with the depth now on display, it's possible that victory might come at a punter-friendly price.

In the meantime it's no surprise that bookmakers aren't taking any chances. He's just 2/1 to win the Race To Dubai - only marginally bigger than his 2017 price despite form and fitness concerns and the emergence of Jon Rahm and Fleetwood as genuine threats. (Ben Coley)

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