Timeform explain Serpentine's Investec Derby win via sectional times

The 2020 Derby is one that will not be quickly forgotten: it took place a month later than usual, it was staged on the same afternoon as the Oaks and it was won by a 25/1 shot in remarkable style.

Analysis of sectional times taken by Timeform and comparisons with the Oaks, run over the same course and distance, can help explain how Serpentine, brilliantly ridden by Emmet McNamara, won the Derby by five and a half lengths to give trainer Aidan O’Brien a record eighth success.

The Oaks featured two horses, Passion and Tiempo Vuela, who appeared to go off hard from the start. At least that was the visual impression they created in pulling clear of the field, but sectionals reveal that the pair ran the first five furlongs only a couple of lengths faster than Serpentine did in the Derby. Serpentine was still only around three and a half lengths clear of the remainder at that stage, but Passion and Tiempo Vuela had extended their advantage over the other runners in the Oaks to roughly 15 lengths.

There were some interesting developments in the next phase of both races (from five furlongs to the path roughly three and a half furlongs from the winning post) which almost certainly had a significant impact on the results.

Ennistymon and her jockey Seamie Heffernan were the key players in the Oaks. She was just about last after five furlongs and around 19 lengths behind the leaders, but Heffernan asked her to make significant inroads on the inside soon afterwards, quickly moving into a clear third.

By the time the field reached the path, Ennistymon had reduced the deficit to the leaders to around eight lengths having run the previous three and half furlongs or so in 43.25 seconds. Passion (45.10s) and Tiempo Vuela (45.20s) were both much slower through this part of the race, and Ennistymon essentially helped pull the chasing pack back into it.

Ennistymon briefly held the lead inside the final three furlongs, but her stablemate Love soon swept by down the outside and quickly went clear to land the spoils by nine lengths. The winner was the fastest horse in the race through each of the last three furlongs and her overall time was 2m 34.06s (117 timefigure, 3 lb sectional upgrade), beating Enable’s record for the race by around 0.07s (Enable ran an extra 26 yards).

As for the Derby, the crucial moment of the race also occurred between five furlongs and the path three and a half furlongs later. It had been a horse coming from nearly last who recorded the fastest sectional in that part of the Oaks, but it was the front-running Serpentine who achieved that feat amongst the 16 runners who contested the Derby, a move that ultimately proved decisive.

Serpentine ran that section of the race in 43.85s, around 0.60s slower than Ennistymon but much faster than all the other runners in the Derby. Khalifa Sat, who led the chasing pack, was the next fastest with a time of around 45.40 (1.5s slower than Serpentine), whilst key runners English King and Kameko recorded times of around 45.90s (2.1s slower than Serpentine).

As Serpentine crossed the path on the entrance to the straight he had extended his advantage over the chasing pair of Khalifa Sat and Amhran Na Bhfian to around 13 lengths, while English King and Kameko were a further five or six lengths back.

It was the aggressive injection of pace by McNamara, as well as the passiveness of those jockeys in behind, which allowed Serpentine to build up his unassailable lead. However, while it’s easy to break down and pinpoint the critical junctures of a race afterwards, it’s much more challenging for a jockey to do so as it’s happening around them. They are having to make these decisions in real time, often relying on learned experience to better inform those decisions. That their experience in the Derby may have been informed by how the Oaks was run earlier is a point Jamie Lynch made on Sky Sports Racing, and almost certainly has some merit.

Serpentine understandably got tired in the closing stages, recording a finishing speed of 106.4% when par for the course at Epsom is around 111% (Love recorded a finishing speed of 114.4%). Furthermore, all bar Worthily recorded a faster finishing speed for the final three and a half furlongs than the winner, with English King and Russian Emperor coming home strongest of all (both recorded finishing speeds of 114.9%).

The damage had already been done by then, however.