Weights & Measures: Sandown & more | Ben Linfoot rounds up the adjusted official ratings

George's Boy impresses in Tolworth

• Summerville Boy >>>> Up 4lb to 146
• Kalashnikov >>>> Up 2lb to 141
• Mont des Avaloirs >>>> New entry 141

Tom George’s Summerville Boy, at 25/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and 20/1 for the Ballymore, looks to be underestimated by the bookies for the Cheltenham Festival.

Yes, it was a small-field Tolworth, as always, on heavy ground, as usual, and yes, the favourite Western Ryder disappointed, but that is not enough reason to doubt the form and he looks a very useful novice hurdler on the up.

Mont des Avaloirs set a strong gallop, helping Summerville Boy record a good time relative to the closing handicap hurdle on the card, a mistake at the last not stopping him finish strongly for a four-length victory.

There was no reason to doubt the form of any of the quintet going into the race and he’s beaten them all well, including the previously unbeaten Kalashnikov, a horse rated 139 pre-Tolworth.

The winner looks fully deserving of a 4lb hike to a rating of 146, a number that historically puts him right in the mix for any of the novice events at Cheltenham, even if his mark is a slight downgrade on winners of the race in the most recent of years...

Last 10 Tolworth Winners Post-Race ORs

2017 – Finian’s Oscar - 149
2016 – Yorkhill – 156
2015 – L’Ami Serge – 153
2014 – Royal Boy (run at Kempton) – 144
2013 – Melodic Rendezvous – 145
2012 – Captain Conan – 142
2011 – Minella Class – 148
2008 – Breedsbreeeze – 143
2007 – Silverburn - 144

Last year, only one horse was rated higher than 146 going into the Supreme (Melon didn’t have a rating having had just the one run over hurdles), while only two were rated higher in the then-Neptune-now-Ballymore.

They were the first two home, Willoughby Court and Neon Wolf, on 147 and 148 respectively, and it could be that the Ballymore is the race for Summerville Boy at the Festival.

He relished the emphasis on stamina on Saturday and his pedigree suggests he needs further too, both his brother and his dam’s family mainly having being campaigned over two-and-a-half miles and more.

The last two winners of the Tolworth, Yorkhill and Finian’s Oscar, both went on to win Grade Ones in the spring, both over half-a-mile further, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if Summerville Boy were to do something similar this season.

Sky Bet Odds: Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Non Runner, No Bet)

Beaten horses and the Betfair Hurdle

Novices have dominated the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in recent years, with the last five winners all having novice status even if Violet Dancer was a second-season novice when he won the prestigious handicap in 2015.

Two years ago Agrapart finished third in the Tolworth before landing the Betfair Hurdle and, with three hurdle runs already under their belts, both Kalashnikov and Mont des Avaloirs qualify for the Newbury race (both are currently rated 141) this time around.

The last five winners were My Tent Or Yours (rated 149), Splash Of Ginge (134), Violet Dancer (132), Agrapart (137) and Ballyandy (135), so, on ratings at least, it might not be a bad option for either the second or third in the Tolworth, although Kalashnikov is reportedly set for a break now ahead of a tilt at the Ballymore.

Still, it got me thinking about the Betfair Hurdle, just a month away on February 10, and the novices that might turn up.

The initial entries will be published tomorrow at noon (January 10) and it will be interesting to scour the list for novices with Lalor expected to be in there for Richard Woollacott.

He split Western Ryder and Summerville Boy in a messy novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham earlier in the season and looks sure to be better suited by a stronger gallop. Off a rating of 137, it’s no surprise he’s towards the top of ante-post lists at around 12/1.

I also thought Philip Hobbs’ Springtown Lake (currently rated 139), second to On The Blind Side at Sandown, might be interesting dropping in trip, while if Nicky Henderson does have a novice hurdler with a Betfair profile it’s probably Diese Des Bieffes, rated 135 after three novice hurdles and second to If The Cap Fits at Kempton last time, although he is favourite for the Lanzarote Hurdle this weekend.

The weights are out on January 18 and let’s hope something nearer the maximum field of 24 turns up this year after 16 went to post last season.

It remains a £60,000 more valuable pot than the County Hurdle, so it was with some dismay that I read this week that Hunters Call, ante-post favourite for the race at Sky Bet, is likely to miss Newbury in favour of a crack at Cheltenham.

Munir & Souede team just a Dream

• Call Me Lord >>>> Up 9lb to 152
• We Have A Dream >>>> Up 2lb to 145

Another Saturday, another winning one for owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede who have assembled an impressive army of horses to go to war with this National Hunt season.

Their Call Me Lord looks the latest rising star and he has gone up 9lb to a rating of 152 after his excellent win off top weight in the closing 32Red.com Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday, shooting into the top 10 of his owners’ best horses in the process (see below).

The aforementioned Betfair Hurdle was mooted as a potential next port of call for him, although he’d almost certainly carry top weight now.

Top 10 Munir/Souede horses on ORs

Bristol De Mai 167
Sceau Royal 161
Top Notch 160
L’Ami Serge 159
Footpad 157
Wholestone 155
Call Me Lord 152
Ballybolley 150
Ucello Conti 148
Vyta Du Roc 147

Meanwhile, We Have A Dream doesn’t even make the Munir/Souede top 10 despite winning his first Grade One in the Coral Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow at the weekend.

He showed smart acceleration, relative to the conditions, to put the race to bed and looks likely to improve his form on better ground as he’s got plenty of speed.

Were it not for stablemate Apple’s Shakira, owned by JP McManus, he’d probably be a very solid favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. Just like in 2015, when Peace And Co beat Top Notch and Hargam in a thrilling renewal, it looks like Henderson will let his best juveniles, again owned by Munir/Souede and McManus, fight it out on the track.

Sky Bet Odds: JCB Triumph Hurdle (Non Runner, No Bet)

Placed horses given chance after Welsh National

• Raz De Maree >>>> Up 7lb to 145
• Alfie Spinner >>>> Remains on 132
• Final Nudge >>>> Down 1lb to 144
• Vintage Clouds >>>> Remains on 140
• Silsol >>>> Down 3lb to 144

With 13-year-olds finishing first and second and just seven of the 20 completing after a gruelling race, it’s no surprise the handicapper has gone easy on the placed horses in the Coral Welsh Grand National.

Normally, when you beat 15+ rivals in a Grade 3 handicap chase you could expect a rise in the weights of some sort, but runner-up Alfie Spinner and fourth home Vintage Clouds remain on their pre-race marks of 132 and 140 respectively, while third home Final Nudge and fifth Silsol have dropped in the ratings ever so slightly.

Vintage Clouds was hampered on more than one occasion and stayed on well enough again for fourth, explaining why he’s sandwiched between two ‘droppers’ with Silsol potentially of interest next time off his new rating of 144.

He ran really well off a big weight on just his fifth start over fences and is now fully a stone lower over the bigger obstacles than he was at his zenith over timber. I’m sure Paul Nicholls can find an opening for him before the season’s out.

It will be interesting to see how he and, indeed, all of the placed horses in the Welsh National get on in the remainder of the current campaign.

As for Raz De Maree, it all just fell into place for him. The strong pace, the ground, the brilliant ride from ultra-talented teenager James Bowen. His Irish mark is up 7lb to 145 now and you can probably add a pound or two if he comes back to these shores.

That will be a career-high mark for him and things will be difficult. But this was his day.

Vets serve up Sandown cracker

• Buywise >>>> Up 7lb to 145
• Pete The Feat >>>> Up 3lb to 133
• Gas Line Boy >>>> Remains on 148

The final of the veterans’ chase series, the 32Red Veterans’ Handicap Chase, was once again a superb spectacle and another advertisement for a fine initiative established just three years ago.

While it’s tough to assemble a field of more than three runners in some disciplines of the National Hunt game sometimes, it seems there is never a shortage of grizzled staying chasers to lighten up the winter sport.

And when the money is there – this contest was run for a near £100,000 pot – the best of the grey-haired brigade turn up. It’s a success story and one that has improved what would otherwise be a quiet betting day (the Welsh National should’ve been run 10 days previously remember).

But it doesn’t need to be moved to the Cheltenham Festival. And nor does any sort of veterans race need to be crowbarred into the Festival programme. The best veterans have options at Cheltenham and if there is one week of the year that doesn’t need its handicaps bulking up it’s that one in March.

Anyway, I digress. Despite this being a race confined to 11-plusses, a quality field produced some strong-looking form.

The runner-up, the wonderful 14-year-old Pete The Feat, has gone up 3lb, a signal of strength for the race in itself (especially when you consider the relatively youthful 13-year-old Alfie Spinner stayed on the same mark for finishing in the same position in the Welsh National).

As for Buywise, well. Commentator Simon Holt called him an enigma up the run-in and that’s probably as kind as he could’ve got away with. He ended a 16-race losing streak with a fine display of jumping, not hitting one for once despite Sandown being a tough test in the rhythm department.

He’ll probably become a fixture in these veterans’ races now and jockey Leighton Aspell must surely keep the ride after this, but it will likely be tougher for both horse and jockey next time off 7lb higher.

Hike Of The Week

• Nendrum >>>> Up 15lb to 107

Nendrum has been hammered for winning by 24 lengths on his fourth start for Sandy Thomson. A lightly-raced nine-year-old, he improved on his third start for the yard when the tongue-tie was reapplied and he was dropped to two miles and those factors back at Musselburgh saw him into the winners’ enclosure for the first time in his career.

So go Downtown, things’ll be great when you’re…

• Ballyandy >>>> Down 2lb to 145
• Buster Thomas >>>> Down 3lb to 120
• Pearls Legend >>>> Down 3lb to 124

“They’ll all win if you get them low enough,” said Chris Gordon on At The Races on Monday and it’s with that positivity in mind this week’s trio of plummeting picks are selected from those dropping down the weights.

Down 2lb to 145… we have Ballyandy, who just looked to be done for sharpness in the Dipper after over three months off. His mark is down to 145 now, the ceiling rating in the Close Brothers’ Novices’ Handicap Chase and, though he’ll need another run over fences to qualify for that, I wonder if connections might go down the handicap route now with his season being a bit of a slow burner.

Down 3lb to 120… it’s Buster Thomas, a horse that is now 7lb lower than the mark he began the season off. Still very lightly-raced after just five career runs, he’s shaped with promise in all of his races so far to some degree and perhaps we’ll see a different horse off his sliding rating when he encounters better ground. He’s been well-fancied on all starts, never going off bigger than 6/1.

Down 3lb to 124… Pearls Legend, outclassed when fourth of four behind Speredek at Sandown on Saturday. Not an obvious one for your My Stable trackers, granted, but he’s dropped 3lb to 124, a mark just 1lb higher than his last winning one. A drop in grade to a Class 3 and better ground, just the conditions he had when victorious at Plumpton last April, could well see him get his head back in front again.

Sporting Life My Stable: Add these horses to your free tracker

Related horse racing links

• Weights & Measures:Festive round-up
• Weights & Measures: Cheltenham (Dec)
• Weights & Measures: Sandown & Aintree
• Weights & Measures: Haydock & Ascot
• Weights & Measures: Cheltenham (Nov)
• Free horse racing betting tips
• All today's racecards
• Today's fast results
• Today's full results
• Non-runners
• Today's Goings
• Today's Naps Table
• ABC Guide
• Sky Bet's antepost racing odds