Weights & Measures: Sandown & Aintree | Ben Linfoot rounds up the adjusted official ratings

Blaklion has tough task in Grand National

• Blaklion >>>> Up 8lb to 161

If Blaklion is to win the Grand National – and he’s a best-priced 12/1 to do so as the tinsel shimmers on the Christmas trees – then he’s in all likelihood going to have to do a Many Clouds and win the race off a mark in the 160 region.

As things stand he’s rated 161 after going up 8lb following his Becher Chase rout and he’s probably not going to run again now until after the weights are released, perhaps just days after the weights are released, in the Haydock Grand National Trial in mid-February.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has always had plenty of confidence in this horse, proclaiming after his defeat in this year’s renewal of the Grand National Trial at Haydock that ‘we will win the National and forget about today’ and he looked to have called it right when Blaklion went clear in the big one with four to go.

He eventually finished fourth, and that stamina question mark remains, even if he was only beaten eight lengths and even if he is ridden with more restraint next April.

On Saturday, he certainly was ridden with more restraint as Gavin Sheehan oozed confidence throughout. This time he took it up approaching the last and he powered home to win by nine lengths, the result never in doubt. His remarkable 7/4 starting price looked baffling (to me, at least) beforehand but it was clearly a reflection of the stable confidence behind the horse.

Afterwards, Twiston-Davies was at it again, saying that Blaklion reminded him of Red Rum (he did add the caveat that ‘he’s got a lot to do to be anything like him’) but a National win off 160+ would go some way to adding credence to such a statement.

Looking at those 12/1 odds right now, even if you fancy him strongly, I would wait until after he’s run at Haydock. There’s every chance he’ll get beat off 161 in that race – he was second in it last year off 152 – and if he is he might even be a few pounds wrong come the big one.

In that scenario he could be a similar price come the day, but there’s no doubt he strongly ticks the ‘Aintree factor’ box and, even off a tough mark, a mark likely to be about 8 or 9lb higher than last year’s, his ability over the famous spruce means it’ll be tough to cross him off your National shortlist.

Although, having said that, I suspect I’ll be doing just that considering the task that awaits him from a handicapping point of view.

SKY BET ODDS: Blaklion 10/1 for the Grand National

Horses that have run off 160+ in the Grand National

Don’t Push It – 160 – 3rd - 2011
Ballabriggs – 160 – 6th – 2012
Synchronised – 161 – Fell - 2012
Long Run – 160 – Fell – 2014
Tidal Bay – 161 – UR – 2014
Many Clouds – 160 – 1st – 2015
Lord Windermere – 161 – PU – 2015
Many Clouds – 165 – 16th – 2016
Silviniaco Conti – 163 – PU – 2016
The Last Samuri – 161 – 16th – 2017

Politologue improves to win sub-standard Tingle

• Politologue >>>> Up 4lb to 165

Much was made of the horses that weren’t there for 2017’s renewal of the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase, but the winner impressed with his jumping once again and he has the potential to progress to the level of Those Who Must Not Be Named.

On the bare form, though, he wasn’t as sparkling as recent winners like Kauto Star, Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grugy and Un De Sceaux. His effort was more Dodging Bullets, and the 165 number that horse recorded in the race was the exact figure Politologue has been awarded.

"That’s partly because of Ar Mad bringing the form down and particularly Charbel, I couldn’t really rate it any higher than that considering the proximity of those two,” says BHA handicapper Chris Nash, who was in charge of doing the maths for the Tingle Creek and the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase.

“But Politologue is progressive and all of his last three runs have been career-bests. He could easily rank higher but I couldn’t have him higher on Saturday’s performance.”

When Dodging Bullets won the Tingle Creek he went on to win the Clarence House Chase and the Queen Mother Champion Chase after that, and Politologue is 8/1 at best to win the latter contest at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

That sort of price is going to look massive if two horses in particular don’t turn up and you suspect he’s got more in the locker yet. Only six, and with only three chase runs over two miles under his belt, it would be pretty staggering if he doesn’t prove to be better than his current rating of 165 in time.

SKY BET ODDS: Politologue 6/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase

Royal ranks high after Henry VIII romp

• Sceau Royal >>>> Up 8lb to 161

“The novice race was good, really good,” says Nash. “I have no qualms in saying that Sceau Royal is the best two-mile novice chaser we’ve seen this season and he’s now rated 161.

“That’s 4lb higher than Altior was after winning the same race last year. His jumping was deadly, he was very quick through the air. I was really impressed as it was such a good race. Brain Power was a 160 hurdler, North Hill Harvey was 155, Finian’s Oscar looked outpaced but was 155.”

High praise indeed for Sceau Royal and 161 is phenomenally high for a novice at this time of year. That’s due to the high quality of Saturday’s randoxhealth.com Henry VIII Novices’ Chase in which five last-time out winners from the top yards in the country did battle.

Sceau Royal came out on top after travelling well and jumping superbly. He killed them for speed and, though it didn’t really allay any fears that he might not get up the Cheltenham hill, this clearly marked him out as novice chaser that’s going to take high rank.

Backed in the aftermath of the contest for the Arkle, he’s a best-priced 8/1 now and the only reason he’s not favourite is because his owners, Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, also have Footpad, trained by Willie Mullins, who was electric on his chasing debut at Navan.

The BHA don’t publish official figures for Irish races, but they do keep their own performance figures in case the need arises and Nash kindly revealed he’s pencilled in Footpad at 152+ following his chasing debut.

Of course, we’ll see a more accurate representation of Footpad’s abilities as a novice chaser when he lines up in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on day one of their Christmas festival. But, as things stand, the Arkle market doesn’t reflect what Footpad and Sceau Royal have achieved over fences on the track.

SKY BET ODDS: Sceau Royal 6/1 for the Arkle Trophy

Other Weekend Winners

• On The Blind Side >>>> Up 8lb to 153
• Gas Line Boy >>>> Up 6lb to 148
• A Hare Breath >>>> Up 6lb to 145
• Benbens >>>> Up 3lb to 138

On The Blind Side impressed in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown on Friday, coping with the slight drop in trip from his Cheltenham assignment well. He looked to need every yard of 2m5f at Prestbury Park, but he improved on that effort at Sandown and is now rated 153, putting him firmly in the mix for the Ballymore at Cheltenham, a target Nicky Henderson seemed very definite about afterwards.

At Aintree on Saturday Gas Line Boy won the Grand Sefton in style, despite being hampered by the fall of Arctic Gold four from home. He looks better than ever this year and will go for the National again, although he’s now 4lb higher than when fifth last year. The veterans’ chase at Sandown in early January, in which he was fourth last season off 3lb lower, looks a more attainable target.

A Hare Breath goes really well fresh and he put in a career-best performance over hurdles to win the Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle at Sandown from Caid Du Lin. He’s up to a career-high mark of 145 now and will reportedly be kept fresh for the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Off his new rating, he’ll probably be in the upper middle echelon of the weights in that race and another career-best would most certainly be required.

Also at Sandown, Benbens held on admirably from the running-on Sugar Baron to land the Betfair London National Handicap Chase. He’s rising 13 now, but he’s only up 3lb for this and remains 6lb lower than his career-high mark. He’s qualified for the veterans’ final as well.

Hike Of The Week

• Our Merlin >>>> Up 17lb to 103

Our Merlin was still in contention when unseating James Best at the third last at Plumpton in November, but that experience didn’t dent his confidence one jot as he absolutely hosed up by 21 lengths at the same track on December 4. Hit with a 17lb hike from 86 to 103, he won again at Fontwell on Monday under a 7lb penalty and is even entered again at Taunton on Thursday, although Robert Walford says he’s unlikely to take up the entry.

I’m gonna keep lovin’ you down, down, down

• Skipthecuddles >>>> Down 3lb to 132
• Mystifiable >>>> Down 2lb to 128
• Cloudy Dream >>>> Down 1lb to 158

Three horses dropping ever-so-slightly down the charts this week that are worth keeping an eye on, or perhaps even sticking in your My Stable trackers.

Down three at 132… Skipthecuddles, who shaped better than the 16-length defeat that’s in the record books at Southwell the other day, where he travelled nicely before his effort petered out. Even this fifth-place finish was something like a return to form and, off his new mark of 132, he’s one to watch out for in a handicap over slightly shorter.

Down two at 128… Mystifiable. Fergal O’Brien’s grey nine-year-old ran really well in the Grand Sefton on ground that would be much softer than is ideal. He traded as low as 3.25 in-running before tiring late on but he’s on a really dangerous mark now having dropped 4lb in two runs and he’ll be on the radar when he runs over something in the region of 2m4f, especially on better conditions.

Down one at 158… Cloudy Dream, a horse that shapes like a classy animal and will be of real interest when he runs over two-and-a-half miles again. Second over three miles at Aintree on Saturday, he tanked along but was simply outstayed by Definitly Red, a horse with deeper reserves of stamina. He’d be of interest in a top 2m4f-2m5f handicap and I’d love to see him at that trip in cheekpieces.

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