Weights & Measures

Victory on a Plate?

Pilgrims Bay >>>>> Up 8lbs to 138

Double Shuffle >>>>> Up 3lbs to 152

Irish Saint >>>>> Down 2lbs to 144

BetBright Chase bottom weight and outsider Pilgrims Bay may not always find a great deal off the bridle but he had enough up his sleeve to see off the challenge of the progressive Double Shuffle. 

This was just his fifth start over fences, fifth for Neil Mulholland and 16th of his career so he retains some scope for improvement and the rise in the weights may well be enough to earn him a place in the Ultima Handicap Chase should connections choose to head to Cheltenham.

He saw out the trip well on his first attempt at three miles but he obviously doesn't want to be in front for too long and Cheltenham is far from the easiest place to deliver such tactics but there's no reason why he shouldn't remain competitive granted similar conditions to Saturday, namely a large(ish) field and a strong pace.

Ballykan finished over 12 lengths behind Theatre Guide in the 2016 renewal and went on to finish well beaten in the Ultima Handicap Chase in which Theatre Guide fell. 

His one entry for the Festival this year is in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate but he is likely to find that too competitive and the same is true of Theatre Guide in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup; both horses were unchanged from Saturday's ratings.

The Plate is likely to be the target for Aso who is also unchanged and Venetia Williams' runner may represent this race's best chance of a prominent showing at the Cheltenham Festival. He was ridden to get the trip on his first start beyond an extended two miles five and may well have finished even closer had he been ridden more aggressively. He has plenty of course form to his name at Cheltenham and should be suited by dropping back in trip with a likely strong place to aim at in the Plate.

The Plate could also be the best option for Irish Saint (also entered in the Ultima) as he has failed to prove his stamina for three miles. A disappointing season - he was well below par here - has seen his mark slip to 144 from a high of 153 when fourth behind Vautour in the 2015 JLT Novices' Chase. He still has to prove he can reach those heights after an injury but shaped well on his reappearance in November and has been given every chance by the handicapper.

Double Shuffle was placed in the Close Brothers' Novices' Handicap Chase last year and is entered in the Ultima but Tom George has his sights set on the Randox Health Grand National for the seven-year-old. 

He's a 66/1 chance for the Aintree showpiece which tells you everything you need to know but he is unexposed at three miles (and beyond) and Saturday's run was a career best. He could have another decent handicap in him.

Ol' Blueyes is back

Master Blueyes >>>>> Up 17lbs to 150

Evening Hush >>>>> Down 1lb to 141

Fidux >>>>>  Down 2lbs to 135

Flying Tiger >>>>> Down 1lb to 134

The chances of the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle being a key pointer to the JCB Triumph Hurdle appeared to disappear with Charli Parcs' fall but Master Blueyes took a big step forwards.

Alan King said that the Mastercratfsman gelding had 'been lethal the last 10 days' adding that he had never known a horse come on as much as Master Blueyes had for his win at Ludlow.

A rise of 17lbs leaves him rated just 5lbs below likely favourite Defi Du Seuil and who's to say that there isn't more improvement to come from this useful Flat stayer. A number of horses have only advertised their Triumph Hurdle claims in the Kempton contest and it may not pay to take too harsh a view of his previous efforts.

Although he was travelling best, Charli Parcs had forced his way back into contention and Nicky Henderson felt that he had just come back on to the bridle. He had beaten the winner by eight lengths over course and distance on his British and stable debut, looking a serious prospect in the process.

It's clearly not the ideal preparation for a championship race but that debut effort shouldn't be forgotten if Henderson allows him to line up next month. That's very much a view some layers have taken as he remains as low as 6/1 for the juvenile crown (top price 12s) with Master Blueyes longer than that across the boards and a best of 9/1. 

Evan Williams has always felt that Evening Hush may be better suited by Aintree where she won earlier in the season. She didn't race as prominently as earlier in the season and failed to match the form of her second to Defi Du Seuil in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow.  Those behind her that day haven't exactly advertised the form and she now has a little to prove in graded company.

Flying Tiger finished closer to her than he had done at Exeter in November and both he and Fidux are likely to head to the Fred Winter although both remain higher in the handicap than any recent winner (albeit marginally with two scoring from 133) and are likely to meet better handicapped rivals in that fiercely competitive race.

Go Wylde!

River Wylde >>>>> Up 9lbs to 144

Elgin >>>>> Up 1lb to 143

Capitaine >>>>> Down 3lbs to 142

Henderson certainly wasn't talking down the chances of River Wylde going into the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices' Hurdle and the six-year-old is now the shortest priced of the stable's entries for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

The favourite Capitaine failed to run up to the level of his second in the Tolworth Novices' Hurdle but Elgin (who was conceding 3lbs to the winner) is a solid yardstick and appreciated a return to racing right-handed on better ground after being brushed aside by Neon Wolf at Haydock.

The winner was a beaten favourite twice in three starts in bumpers (including when third behind Elgin on debut) but has really come into his own since being sent hurdling, winning twice at Ludlow before Saturday.

He had gone under the radar having been brought along steadily but is now rated only 4lbs behind Supreme favourite Moon Racer and this 16/1 chance would be among the more interesting outsiders if lining up in the Festival curtain raiser but no more than that and Henderson has expressed concerns as to whether his charge is streetwise enough to cope with the Festival and everything that accompanies it.

Capitaine still holds an entry in the County Hurdle but he is regarded as a future chaser and it wouldn't surprise if connections give the Festival a miss. He has been given an entry for Kelso on Saturday.

Peter The Mayo Man was left on 140 and holds entries in the Supreme, Neptune and Martin Pipe with the latter looking the most obvious race for him. He's yet to race beyond two miles but did win a bumper (from the subsequent Grade One winning hurdler Don't Touch It) where stamina often plays a key part and he's certainly in the right ballpark ratings-wise.

Best of the rest

River Frost (up 10lbs to 143) bounced back from a fall at Wincanton to record his second Kempton victory of the season. He's the only one of the first three with Cheltenham Festival entries but Alan King commented that they could 'duck Cheltenham' with the five-year-old.

It was a solid effort on his handicap debut from Coastal Tiep in second (up 5lbs to 135) who is all about chasing next season. He should continue to progress. Third home Wishing And Hoping (up 1lb to 129 both hurdles and chase) was reverting to hurdles after two falls over fences and proved that his confidence hadn't been affected, travelling strongly in rear and keeping on well from off the pace. He can build on this next time and looks very fairly handicapped on the pick of his efforts.

Saturday looked to be 'the day' for Gayebury (up 15lbs to 147) who was backed from an opening 8/1 into 4/1 favouritism for the Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Chepstow which he duly won by 13 lengths.

He clearly appreciated the step up in trip but his performance still paid a compliment to his Warwick conqueror Willoughby Court who is a 14/1 chance for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. Gayebury is 33s for that race and 14/1 for the Pertemps but all of his form has been on testing ground and he makes little appeal for either race having been hit hard by the handicapper and with conditions likely to ride faster. He's a nice prospect for novice chasing next season.

On the same card, Rock The Kasbah (down 2lbs to 142) returned to form when appreciating the step up to almost three miles. He was rated 152 when a disappointing favourite for last year's Coral Cup so is potentially well treated if lining up in the Ultima. 

Second home Swincombe Scorchio has been rated just 113 and there are any number of questions for Rock The Kasbah to answer. He's thought to need soft ground and his jumping hasn't convinced but he caught the eye at Cheltenham earlier in the season and ran well behind the smart Politologue at Ascot and isn't one to give up on yet. 

The weights for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps will be revealed on Wednesday and the ratings for the Irish runners may well bear limited relation to their domestic marks as we know.

However, Presenting Percy has been put up by 10lbs to 140 following his victory at Fairyhouse (in a first time tongue tie) which will guarantee him a starting berth in the Pertemps Final. He is a best of 7/1 and vying for favouritism and represents the same connections as last year's winner Mall Dini. 

This decent bumper performer has experience of large fields having run in qualifiers at Leopardstown and Punchestown and retains scope for further improvement despite starting the season with a rating of just 115. The horse has long since bolted with regards to his ante-post price though and tomorrow's weights will tell us more about the task he faces.

Gordon Elliott had suggested that the Fred Winter could be a target for Dinaria Des Obeaux (unchanged at 133) but it will be a little surprising if she's well enough weighted to tempt connections to take that route at Cheltenham. 

She won Saturday's race in the stewards' room but appeared to be beaten on merit by another Fred Winter candidate in Ex Patriot (138) while Landofhopeandglory (down 1lb to 141) was well beaten in unsuitable conditions in his Triumph Hurdle prep. He could leave this form a long way behind but will need to in order to feature.