Lewis Tomlinson gives his insight on some of the major races coming up this weekend, including the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Jonbon is the star of the show at Cheltenham on Friday - are you with or against him?
I think it’s hard to be against Jonbon and I’m confident he’ll win his third Shloer Chase. The fact he was sent off odds-on for five consecutive Grade 1s subsequently speaks volumes about his position at the top of the domestic two-mile tree and whilst he met with defeat on two of those occasions, plenty went wrong for him in the Champion Chase and there doesn’t seem to be anything quite of the calibre of his Celebration Chase conqueror – and perhaps the most interesting player in the division at present – Il Etait Temps in opposition this time around.
I’m less convinced than others about his perceived distaste for Cheltenham, his winless record at the Festival for me a combination of poor luck and bumping into some top-class rivals on their “A” game. I like L’Eau Du Sud, but his limitations were rather exposed at Grade 1 level against fellow novices at the back end of last season and the form of the Evan Williams yard has to be a huge concern regarding the chances of Libberty Hunter.
There's plenty of rain forecast at Cheltenham on Friday. Can you give us a horse running over the weekend who will relish testing ground?
He's a shorter price than I’d like him to be, but if we’re talking horses who can’t have it soft enough, surely Supremely West is the one to highlight on Saturday. His form in heavy-ground handicaps reads 2221, the most recent of those second-placed finishes coming behind last season’s Rendlesham Hurdle winner Gwennie May Boy, to whom Supremely West was giving 7 lb.
He signed off last campaign with a third-placed effort behind Doyen Quest and Ikarak, both winners already this term, at Warwick and having joined Dan Skelton in the summer, shaped very well behind a pair of attractively-handicapped second-season hurdlers to fill the same position over this course and distance on his comeback. This race isn’t anywhere near deep – only three of the ten are rated above 125 - and it’ll be disappointing if he can’t go any closer given the red-hot form of his yard.
How do you assess the Paddy Power Gold Cup?
It's perhaps a shade underwhelming that the Paddy Power has failed to attract any runners rated 150 or higher for the first time since 2001, but Jagwar will surely be in that bracket in the not-too-distant future and think he’ll justify favouritism in the big Saturday handicap. His novice season was overwhelmingly positive, culminating in Cheltenham victories in the Timeform Novices’ Chase - usually the strongest pre-Festival race of its type in the season – and in a typically competitive renewal of the Plate, arguably doing well to do so given he produced a mixed round of jumping. He’s already proven his strong-travelling style is well suited to demands of a big-field handicap at Prestbury Park and I’d be surprised if there isn’t better still to come in his second season over fences.
If I were to look for an alternative, Henry De Bromhead’s Coming Up Easy has improved at a rate of knots this summer and appeals as the likeliest pace angle. The Paddy Power is a completely different kettle of fish to the races he’s been winning at the likes of Cork and Killarney, but he’s been able to utilise a really fluent jumping technique to dominate said contests from the front and I wouldn’t be surprised if he still held the advantage turning into the straight on Saturday.
We're waiting for the final declarations for the Greatwood Hurdle, but who is towards the top of your shortlist?
I’m looking towards the top of the betting again in the Greatwood and think Alexei is the one to be with. Though he failed to win again after landing back-to-back events at Taunton in his novice season, his fourth in the Valentine Hurdle at Exeter, when behind Regent’s Stroll and Julius Des Pictons - very nearly both Aintree Grade 1 winners later in the season - now looks a strong piece of form. There’s also been plenty to like about both outings this season, initially when chasing home a likely cherry-ripe Celtic Dino, who’ll reoppose here, in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and then when getting the better of the progressive Indemnity at Ascot a fortnight ago.
Softer ground is a bit of an unknown, but he’s another smooth-travelling type that should find big-field handicaps playing to his strengths and it’s unlikely we’ve seen the best of him yet. I’ll also give a mention to Rubber Ball at an each-way price, who I thought looked a real professional in his novice campaign and has proven his effectiveness in softer conditions. An opening mark of 128 looks workable for Neil King’s gelding.
Cheltenham's November meeting takes centre stage, but is there a horse running elsewhere this weekend who you’re positive about?
Bust A Move (1.25 Wetherby) was high on my ante-post Fred Winter shortlist last season and think Michael & David Easterby’s four-year-old will make his mark felt in some of the best Northern two-mile handicaps this year. He was rated a peak of 81 on the Flat and won two of his three starts in his juvenile hurdling campaign, latterly when barely needing to come out of first gear, impressively beating vastly more experienced rivals at Newcastle in February.
He no longer receives such a favourable weight-for-allowance, but so taking was his most recent success that I’d be hopeful a new mark of 124 won’t overface him, with a first-time hood appealing as a positive given his latent enthusiasm.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
