Weekend Racing: Expert panel | Horses to follow and tips for Ayr and Newbury

Is there a two-year-old in the Mill Reef Stakes that really gets you excited?

Ben Linfoot: I do like the look of Eve Johnson Houghton’s Mister Sketch, but so will everyone else and I doubt he’ll be missed by the market. After 39 millimetres of rain on Wednesday it’s going to be testing ground and while, being by Territories, you would expect Mister Sketch to handle it fine, there is no evidence of him doing so yet and I can see myself taking him on. SEVEN QUESTIONS looks a more likely bet for me, as he looks a tough horse who will knuckle down for you in a battle. He’s racked up the experience after seven runs this year, has won in soft ground at Ripon and I think he was beaten by a good horse in Task Force at the same track two starts ago. He holds Array on their Sirenia Stakes form (replay below) and I can see him going well.

Matt Brocklebank: I can't imagine there's a Harry Angel or a Ribchester in this year's Mill Reef but Mister Sketch looked a bit of a monster when winning on his second start at Salisbury last month. That was no shock after just missing out on debut here at Newbury in July and he's since been snapped up by Wathnan Racing. Haatem could struggle to concede the penalty and the main threat could be ARRAY, who still looked a work in progress when just behind reopposing runner-up Seven Questions at Kempton last time. There's more to come from Andrew Balding's charge.

Adam Houghton: To me this looks anything but a strong race for the grade and the fact Seven Questions – beaten in Listed and Group Three company on his last two starts – tops the field on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings tells you everything you need to know. If there is a horse in the line-up with the potential to take a big step forward, then it’s probably MISTER SKETCH, who looked good when winning by a wide-margin at Salisbury last time. However, he’d need to be winning this in impressive fashion, too, before I could start to get excited about him. On a separate point, the position of this race in the calendar really needs looking at in my view, coming as it does just a week before the Group 1 Middle Park. The leading two-year-olds at this trip are always more likely to go to Newmarket and the Mill Reef invariably ends up being a weak race of its type because of that – this year being a perfect case in point.

Could there be a horse worth backing in Newmarket’s Cesarewitch Trial ahead of the big one next month?

Ben Linfoot: It hasn’t often been a good pointer to the Ces, although Big Easy was second in the trial before winning the main event for Philip Hobbs and Terry Warner back in 2014. The three-year-olds Grand Providence and Campaign Trail look interesting enough for Saturday’s race but it’s hard to see them getting into the main event, so if there is one horse who could use the contest as a stepping stone it’s probably David Pipe’s BASHFUL BOY. He has been improving on the Flat in between his hurdles runs and narrow wins at Salisbury and Nottingham over 1m6f have marked him out as a possible improver on the level now he tackles 2m2f. A 4lb penalty for winning Saturday might just get him in the Cesarewitch so he’s at least one to watch.

Matt Brocklebank: Traila has course and distance form over this 1m6f having been second to King Eagle here in June before returning with a narrow victory at Sandown last month. He's open to improvement and has only gone up 4lb so looks a likely candidate despite top weight. However, the really interesting one is Noel Meade's SHEISHYBRID, who could just sneak into the big one next month if picking up a 4lb penalty for winning this weekend. The Mastercraftsman mare is a dual hurdle winner but has scored a couple of times on the level too and is entitled to be a bit sharper for her recent Clonmel second, when reappearing after a two-month break. Decent ground seems to suit her so a big run is expected.

Adam Houghton: The three-year-old GRAND PROVIDENCE isn't necessarily one I'd have on my mind for the Cesarewitch as she looks likely to be a long way out of the weights for the main event next month – win, lose or draw on Saturday. I do think the win is a real possibility this weekend, though, with the step up to two and a quarter miles promising to play to her strengths. Still relatively low mileage after just seven starts, Grand Providence looks a thorough stayer and a steadily-run race at two miles provided a barely adequate test for her at Goodwood last time, doing well under the circumstances to be beaten just a neck having conceded first run to the useful winner, Novel Legend. Only 2lb higher in the weights, she should be thereabouts once again if the extra distance can eke out a bit more improvement.

What do you look for in an Ayr Gold Cup winner, and who stands out this year?

Ben Linfoot: I do tend to veer towards horses that have proven themselves over seven furlongs given the nature of this race, although that wouldn’t be a hard and fast rule. It’s more important to identify a horse that is either proven or looks set to be suited by an end to end gallop, who has recent form that suggests they can strike off their current handicap mark – and a nice price, please, as well! Plenty of leg work needs to be done before nailing down a selection, but bearing the aforementioned in mind Juan Les Pins, Montassib, Northern Express and my old pal Mr Wagyu are amongst a lengthy shortlist.

Matt Brocklebank: Almost half the field are rated in excess of 100 so the first thing you need to look for - just like this year's Wokingham and the Portland only last weekend - is the requisite class to win a race of this nature. That can come in all shapes and sizes and age is certainly no barrier as Summerghand proved 12 months ago. He's back for another crack but has the 5lb penalty for his dead-heat win at York and he's been beaten since. I've backed Ramazan and Orazio antepost and I've definitely warmed even more to the former. He's still on the up based on his Racing League win at Chepstow last time and I like a horse who stays further in this race. He goes on any ground too while the middle draw (12) could be helpful as he's close to Significantly (14) and Desert Cop (9) who are often on the sharp end.

Adam Houghton: I'm finding it hard to remember the last winner of the Ayr Gold Cup I backed... That said, I do think PROBE is overpriced in this year's renewal at around 20/1 judged on his early-season form. He produced a career best when winning a big-field handicap at Newmarket's Guineas meeting and on his previous start he'd been beaten just a length behind the ante-post favourite, Orazio, over the same course and distance. Orazio has clearly improved since, but Probe meets that rival on 7lb better terms on Saturday and he's been freshened up following a mid-season dip in form. He won after a break on his reappearance in March, acts well on softer going and seems likely to have plenty of pace to aim at towards the far side, so I'd like to think he's got plenty going for him at rewarding odds.

Anything else to keep an eye on either in England, Scotland or Ireland this weekend?

Ben Linfoot: Andrew Balding’s TRAFALGAR SQUARE in the Horris Hill School EBF Novice Stakes at Newbury on Saturday. The son of Too Darn Hot shaped well in a hot Newbury maiden when fourth on debut two months ago, a race where Acomb fifth Cogitate beat subsequent Thirsk winner Boiling Point, and he should come on significantly for that given time. He’s a 600,000 guineas half-brother to Age Of Kings and improvement is expected.

Matt Brocklebank: Ramazan ran well in last year's Goffs Million at the Curragh and it's often a race that works out really well. This year's event features six British raiders and the one I like is Roger Varian's MISSION TO MOON, who has improved with every start and fairly bolted up in soft ground at Goodwood last time. Conditions are seemingly in his favour again and he's going to love being buried away early in a big field from stall 12.

Adam Houghton: My Prospero is the class act in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr on Saturday, but I think the three-year-old ROYAL RHYME could put it up to him after his demolition job in what looked a red-hot handicap at Goodwood last time. The level of form he showed there suggests he should be capable of holding his own in pattern company and he's likely been saved for some decent prizes this autumn given his preference for ease underfoot.

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