Weekend Racing: Expert Panel on the Long Walk Hurdle, Betfair Exchange Trophy and more Saturday fancies

1. Could you see either of the old boys, Champ or Paisley Park, fending off the younger guns in the G1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot?

Matt Brocklebank: Probably not alone here but the heart says ‘quite possibly’ and the head says ‘please God, when are we going to get a promising young horse to take this division up a notch or two?!’. On a more serious note, Crambo put up quite an extraordinary effort in trying to give a stone in weight to the two Irish horses in Haydock’s stayers’ handicap last month and he might well have won on another day, given the interference he suffered in the straight. Dan Skelton’s mare West Balboa and the Nicholls-trained four-year-old Blueking D’Oroux are obviously respected too, but surely Crambo is the new kid on the block here. He also has the makings of a top-notch chaser, physically, but I’m probably getting ahead of myself again.

Ben Linfoot: I don’t mind siding with experience if the price is right and I must admit the two horses that are below Champ and Paisley Park in the betting, West Balboa and Crambo, look short enough to me given they have to go and prove themselves at this level. So yes, I can see both of the veterans running well, with Champ bidding to repeat his 2021 victory here while Paisley Park is going for his fourth win in the race. I think Emma Lavelle’s horse can reverse Newbury form with Dashel Drasher at a track that suits and I’ve seen worse bets than taking the old boys against the field.

Adam Houghton: I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. This is a division where ‘expect the unexpected’ has been a good motto to live by over the last couple of years and it was only in March that the 11-year-old Sire du Berlais proved too strong for the up-and-comers when sent off at 33/1 at Cheltenham. The likes of Crambo and West Balboa fall into the latter category this time, but that pair remain with plenty to find to become a major force at this level and there’s every chance the old guard could still hold sway. Again, it’s not a strong view – how can it ever be in this division? – but I’d just about side with Champ, so good when fresh and not too far off being the force of old judged on his reappearance win last season.

2. Where do you sit when it comes to backing a horse who has R/O on his last two starts, like Onlyamatteroftime in the Betfair Exchange Trophy?

BL: Again, it’s a price thing, and for me 6/1 about Onlyamatteroftime is just not big enough in a competitive race given his antics on his last two starts. He has an ominous name, is owned by a man the bookies fear and is trained by Willie Mullins, so he needs a few more blobs yet before he gets forgotten in the betting. I’ll be taking him on again on Saturday and if he wins I’ll shrug the shoulders and move on, as I just can’t back him at current odds, especially as I can’t find a single piece of evidence in the formbook that suggests he should be that sort of price.

AH: Here’s another old motto to live by: fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. Those who punted Onlyamatteroftime into 7/2 favouritism for the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham will still be showing the bruises from kicking themselves after he repeated his Cork antics and I wouldn’t be in a hurry to give him another chance. Sure, if the price is big enough to make it worth taking the risk, then fair enough. But 6/1 for a horse who is likely to bail out when the first opportunity presents itself? Not for me, thanks.

MB: It doesn’t sit comfortably so while anything Willie Mullins chooses to run in a valuable handicap anywhere in the world has to be taken seriously, hopefully a lot of punters keep the faith and he goes off an artificially short price. Finding the right one in opposition isn’t easy, especially after Gary Moore didn’t declare his four-year-old Spirit D’Aunou (D'oh!), but Moore does have Hansard and Teddy Blue in here and the latter could be an each-way player.

3. There’s heavy – and then there’s Haydock heavy – give us one horse that will thrive in the mud in Lancashire on Saturday?

AH: Little Miss Dante proved well suited by the testing conditions when defying a penalty to make it two from two over hurdles at Uttoxeter last month, just needing to be kept up to her work to win by three and a half lengths. That race has often unearthed a useful prospect and Little Miss Dante could prove herself another now up in grade. She's bred to stay well and that untapped stamina should stand her in good stead when the going gets tough at Haydock.

BL: I think course specialist Chti Balko looks sure to go well in the Betfred Nifty 50 Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle under Abbie McCain. He’s 11-years-old now but bolted up at Bangor last time and still looks well treated off 122 on his old form. He’s won at Haydock three times in the past, all on heavy ground, and with such form up his sleeve he looks sure to run a big race in the 11.45.

MB: The consistent Niceandeasy took advantage of his reduced rating to win over hurdles at Kelso last month but he’s still pretty well treated over fences too and he clearly loves it when the mud is flying. The addition of a tongue-tie seemed to really perk Nick Alexander’s 10-year-old up last time and he gets into Haydock’s last race off a feather weight. He stays all day and should go well again.

4. What’s your best bet on Saturday from any of the cards at Ascot, Haydock, Lingfield or Newcastle?

MB: Scamallach Liath will be well-found in Ascot’s opening novices’ handicap hurdle after his course success last month but he’s up 6lb for winning by a length and a quarter and faces some potential improvers in this line-up. Among them is Indefix De Ciergues, whose bumper form at Chepstow last season reads well. He’s picked up some useful experience over hurdles this time around, including when third dropped back in trip at Bangor earlier this month, and now goes right out in trip on handicap debut off an opening mark of just 106. Trainer Rebecca Curtis hasn’t had a winner since October which may put some punters off but three seconds for the yard in the past fortnight suggest that could be about to change very soon.

BL: I really like the look of Wrappedupinmay in the opener at Ascot, the Ascot Racecourse Supports Schools Photography Competition Novices’ Handicap Hurdle over (almost) three miles. This 30-length point winner clearly has plenty of stamina to call on and he was unlucky enough to bump into subsequent Grade 2 winner Deafening Silence when beaten at 8/13 on his second hurdles start at Exeter last time. A mark of 118 could’ve let him in very lightly here now he goes up in trip with Paul Nicholls having a tidy record of 3 from 10 in novice handicap hurdles at Ascot.

AH: Eleanor Bob runs in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock and could be worth a chance to build on the promise of her belated reappearance over the same course and distance last month. That was her first start since March 2022 and she arguably shaped best (hit a low of 1.51 in-running on the Betfair Exchange) before her lack of a recent outing seemed to tell, losing three places in the closing stages. Still beaten only four and a quarter lengths, she is 6lb better off at the weights with the winner, Famous Bridge, on Saturday, while the booking of Lucy Turner, who is decent value for her 5lb claim, is the icing on the cake.

5. We have some Christmas crackers just around the corner – what racing highlight are you most looking forward to over the festive period?

MB: The Savills Chase might end up being a deeper race than the King George but that’s just a reflection of how things have gone over the past decade or so and I’m looking forward to both races in their own right, rather than regarding them as Gold Cup trials. Kempton’s Kauto Star Novices’ Chase should be a belting contest too and I can’t wait to see the French-trained Il Est Francais, whose connections sound more bullish every time I hear/read what they have to say. It seems they’re not coming for a race, more a sense of wanting to showcase this rising superstar chaser, and if that sort of billing doesn’t get you excited this time of year then you’ll just have to rely on the festive opportunity to justify simultaneously eating cake and cheese.

AH: I made it clear that I wasn’t ready to give up on Galopin des Champs when asked to provide a long-range fancy for the Gold Cup a couple of weeks ago and I can't wait to see him back in action in the Savills Chase. I remain convinced that he’s one of the best staying chasers we’ve seen since the days of Kauto Star and Denman, both of whom could throw in the occasional poor run. Galopin des Champs needs to bounce back from a couple of his own, but I still think that he's fundamentally a better horse than Fastorslow and well worth a chance to turn the tables on that rival at Leopardstown, with the fact he's out again relatively quickly after the John Durkan suggesting he's been showing all the right signs at home.

BL: Loads to pick from and obviously the King George is always THE Christmas highlight, but looking away from the obvious I’ve got a keen eye on the Desert Orchid Chase in its inaugural year as a handicap. More of these Grade 2 races (and possibly Grade 1s) need to be turned into handicaps for the greater good and it has attracted a fascinating field at the five-day stage with horses like Boothill, Editeur Du Gite and Haddex Des Obeaux (now with Nicky Henderson) potentially being asked to give plenty of weight to the likes of Master Chewy and War Lord. It is good stuff.

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