Weekend Racing: Expert Panel on the Lincoln Handicap and Doncaster

The Flat is back! Give us one dark horse to follow this season?

Tony McFadden: Ralph Beckett had a phenomenal season in 2023 and, given the success he had with his two-year-olds, the signs are promising for the upcoming campaign. Feigning Madness is one I'm positive about after he did so well to maintain his unbeaten record at Newmarket on his second and final start at two. He met some trouble in running and then looked all at sea in the Dip but he showed a tremendous attitude and plenty of stamina to stay on and lead in the final strides of that mile novice. Stamina seems his strong suit and he appeals as one who could reach a high level over middle-distances this term, with entries in the Derby and Irish Derby not looking fanciful given his untapped potential. As an aside, the runner-up at Newmarket, Harper's Ferry, contests the mile-and-a-quarter maiden (16:10) at Doncaster on Saturday.

Ben Linfoot: Here we go. It’s great the Flat turf season is upon us at last and we’ll get to see some proper blue bloods line up in the Classics throughout the spring and into the summer. It’s a truly great time of year. This horse won’t be going for a Classic, but, like Tony says, Ralph Beckett is well set for another fantastic season and his Going The Distance looks a handicapper to keep on the right side of. He won a Nottingham novice nicely under a penalty in October, has been gelded since and starts handicapping life from a mark of 87, but he looks likely to keep on progressing, especially when stepped up to 10 furlongs.

Matt Brocklebank: Mission To Mars has yet to make the racecourse which isn’t all that encouraging on the face of it, but it’s also true that he’s Sir Michael Stoute’s only Derby entry at the time of writing, and he’s bred for the job being a son of 2009 Epsom hero Sea The Stars. He’s 50/1 for the colts’ Classic and could be worth a small interest before he makes his debut - presumably at one of Newmarket’s early-season fixtures in April/May.

Which horse is on your radar to thrive in the soft conditions at Doncaster on Saturday?

Tony McFadden: Harswell Duke has won three times on ground considered heavy by Timeform, including in last year's Spring Mile (14:25). He failed to win again last season but is able to compete off an 8lb lower mark than 12 months ago and his reappearance run at Newcastle last week should have blown away some cobwebs.

Ben Linfoot: It can be difficult to know who’s fit enough to go through testing conditions at this time of year, so I like to eliminate as many unknowns as possible by looking for a horse fit from the all-weather and proven in the ground. Maysong fits the bill in the Spring Mile for Alice Haynes, as he’s he’s had three all-weather runs already this year and ran well on his last two starts. He’s a soft ground winner who has run well in heavy conditions on multiple occasions and he has Doncaster form in heavy ground on his CV as well. He doesn’t look too badly treated, either.

Matt Brocklebank: Some interesting types have won the 10-furlong maiden in recent seasons, including Bangkok and decent dual-purpose horse Too Friendly, and the already-gelded Moon Over Miami could be anything first time up for Ralph Beckett (cost owners Valmont 130,000 euros as a yearling), but the Ed Walker-trained Harper’s Ferry might take some beating. He appeared to run way above market expectations when almost winning a Newmarket novice on debut in October, coping well with soft ground in the process, and he’s bred to relish middle distances as a three-year-old.

What’s your angle in the William Hill Lincoln?

Tony McFadden: Awaal went through last season's Lincoln like a horse who could prove better than a BHA mark of 102 but, while he was placed in the Hunt Cup and Bunbury Cup, he didn't quite kick on as expected from that really promising runner-up effort at Doncaster. Consequently, he's able to run off the same mark as last season, and he could find himself well positioned this time as he's near a couple of horses in Thunder Ball and Hieronymus who tend to force the pace. Last year's Lincoln second also showed Awaal's effectiveness on heavy ground and when fresh, so he looks set to give another good account.

Ben Linfoot: The great thing about the Lincoln is that there are so many angles. Horses that have had runs on the all-weather to guarantee fitness, horses that go well fresh, horses that thrive off a good gallop on a straight course, horses that could be Group performers in the future. Throw in the testing ground and the draw and you have a lovely big-field Flat handicap with much to ponder. It is glorious.

Matt Brocklebank: Take on the favourites, in a nutshell! Chazzesmee ran on bad ground just five days ago and faces a huge task trying to pull off the Curragh-Donny double, and Liberty Lane has been gelded since his flop in the Cambridgeshire when last sighted in September. Awaal, declared in a first-time tongue-tie, is harder to strike a line through as he’s actually not badly handicapped off 102 based on the pick of his placed form last year, although he does remain 9lb higher than when last successful and consequently a shade vulnerable to less exposed rivals. Vetiver, Mr Professor and One Night Thunder are on the shortlist but it’s not that short a list right now and I’ll firm up a selection or two in Friday’s Value Bet…

Is there anything of interest in the Listed events on the undercard?

Tony McFadden: I have no strong view on either race but Holloway Boy strikes me as an interesting runner in the Doncaster Mile (13:20) on his first start since finishing fourth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last season. He's managed to show useful form despite tending to hang and it's possible the gelding operation he's undergone since last seen could have a positive impact. He achieved the notable feat of winning the Chesham Stakes on debut in 2022 and I get the feeling he's probably the best of these if putting it all together.

Ben Linfoot: Pam Sly’s Astral Beau won the Listed Doncaster Mile last year and in a contest that doesn’t look much tougher this time around she could well thrive in the same race again. Testing ground looks absolutely essential for her, so she looks to have her conditions and catching her first time out could be key as well.

Matt Brocklebank: I’ve still got time for Knight (Doncaster Mile) and Orazio (Cammidge Trophy) but not sure I’d make them a bet at current odds, and I’d like to keep an eye on whether any more rain showers pop up on the radar heading into the weekend too.

The ITV4 cameras are at Newbury’s premier race day over jumps, too, have you got one for us?

Tony McFadden: There aren't any prices yet, and it's not the sort of race you could form a strong view on in any case, but I thought it was notable that Newbury's bumper (15:50) is the most valuable race of its type in the calendar and was won last year by Anthony Honeyball and Crest Racing with Crest of Glory. You'd have to suspect this contest has been the long-term target for the same connections' Crest of Fortune who made a winning debut at Wincanton in December. He took a bit of time to grasp what was required of him but he picked up in good style once the penny dropped and was well on top at the finish, looking like a nice prospect.

Ben Linfoot: Heltenham is bound to be popular in the BetVictor Handicap Chase at 2.40 given his win at the same track last time, his win in the same race last year and the form of hi strainer Dan Skelton. However, he’ll be short because of all the above and, on better ground with an 8lb pull at the weights, Anthony Honeyball’s Gustavian could give him more to think about this time. He was beaten 10 lengths three weeks ago, but has a good chance of reversing the form off these terms on conditions he likes.

Matt Brocklebank: These are precisely the sort of meetings that Paul Nicholls will have aimed at for ages – and probably why he’ll end up winning this year’s trainers’ title with something to spare. Regent’s Stroll made a big impression on me when winning at Ascot in November and looks an obvious one for the Goffs UK Spring Sale Bumper, while I’d give a massive chance to each of his three runners in the handicaps earlier on the card too – namely Onethreefivenotout, Solo and Larchmont Lass.

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