Weekend Racing: Expert Panel on the Classic Chase at Warwick, Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton & more

1. What’s your angle in the feature Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick?

Ben Linfoot: Warwick is a great jumpers track and I’ve always felt this is a real rhythm race where it can be very difficult to come from off the pace if something ridden more prominently avoids mistakes. Timeform’s in-play symbols for the last 10 winners going chronologically from the left are 1-2-3-2-3-1-4-3-2-2 (1 being a front runner, 5 held up at the rear) which suggests to me you don’t want to be held up too far off the pace in this contest. That puts me off the favourite Malina Girl a little with my shortlist including the more prominently ridden Guetapan Collonges and Galia Des Liteaux.

Adam Houghton: Major Dundee hasn’t been at his best in two starts this season, but I’d be happy to give him another chance now back up in distance. He’s proved himself a thorough stayer in his two previous runs over extreme trips, finishing third in the 2022 Scottish National and producing a career-best effort when winning last year’s Midlands National. His Uttoxeter win in March showed why he’s such a good fit for races of this nature, not putting a foot wrong as he made negotiating 25 fences seem all rather routine, ultimately winning by three lengths having found extra on the run-in to go clear. The manner of that victory suggests he can be competitive here from a 6lb higher mark and the addition of a visor will hopefully help to keep him interested in the early stages having gone a bit in snatches the last twice.

Tony McFadden: Credo has been shaping like she'd appreciate an extreme test of stamina so retains scope for improvement now stepping up in trip. She was a decisive winner over just shy of three miles and three furlongs on her return at Wincanton and has run well on both subsequent starts at Haydock to finish placed behind one of the most progressive stayers around in Famous Bridge. Her effort when third in the Tommy Whittle last time underlined her effectiveness on really testing ground, and it's worth noting she was a wide-margin winner of a mares' handicap last season on her only previous outing at this venue. She looks too big at 16/1, while the outsider of the entire field, Volcano, also has more going for him than a price of 25/1 might suggest. He has won five of his six starts around here, with the one defeat coming in this event last season when he was well out of the weights and effectively running off a mark 5lb higher than he will compete from this time. He's clearly got a bit to prove having been tailed off and treated for post-race ataxia at Cheltenham last month, but he had run well on his two previous starts this season and it would be little surprise to see him launch another bold bid from the front around this happy hunting ground.

2. Which old boy will be most advantaged by the Veterans’ Final track switcheroo to Warwick?

BL: It has to be Ramses De Teillee for David Pipe given the old grey jumped for fun around here when he bolted up in a Veterans’ Chase at this track 14 months ago. He is winless since then, in just four runs, but he has dropped back to a mark in the high 130s and Pipe must’ve been rubbing his hands when Warwick saved the contest, even if he did run well in the Final at Sandown last year when second to Wishing And Hoping from a rating of 143.

AH: Celebre d'Allen had winning form at Warwick a couple of seasons ago (albeit over two and a half miles) and his two starts this season suggest he remains as good as ever despite having just turned 12. He smashed up fellow veterans when returning from seven months off at Aintree in October, cruising clear from two out to win by 16 lengths, and it looked for a long way like he was going to follow up when he was last seen tackling the National fences in the Becher Chase. He was somehow beaten almost 40 lengths at the line having traded as low as 1.7 in-running on the Betfair Exchange, his stamina plainly giving way after he’d tanked into contention on the home turn. He certainly shaped as if still ahead of his mark and the return to three miles under less testing conditions at Warwick should be right up his street.

TM: Had the race been at Sandown I'd have been looking for a fluent jumper who can get in a good rhythm towards the front-end and capitalise on the quick succession of fences down the back-straight. That remains the case at Warwick, where the tighter configuration of the track could provide an even greater advantage to those ridden handily. Aye Right is on a long losing run stretching back to his Rehearsal Chase success in November 2021 but he has run some big races in defeat and went close to winning on his return at Chepstow, where he traded at 1.01 in running only to wobble badly close home and be collared by the reopposing Good Boy Bobby. He wasn't disgraced when third behind Thomas Darby and Mill Green in a small-field event over this course and distance in November and this fluent jumper retains the class and enthusiasm to take a few of these out of their comfort zone here.

3. Edwardstone up in trip to 2m4f and a bit in the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton – are you for or against him?

BL: This is a tough one as I think he’s a dead interesting horse stepping up in trip but he takes on four talented rivals well proven at the distance here so I wouldn’t have him down as a betting proposition at around 11/4. He could well be one of those two-milers that takes off now he’s given a more severe stamina test, a la Sizing John, who coincidentally stepped out of Douvan’s shadow to thrive up in distance, just as Edwardstone is trying to do after getting beat by Douvan’s brother Jonbon twice this season over the minimum trip. Banbridge and Pic D’Orhy should give him plenty to think about at Kempton, though, so I’ll be watching with interest.

AH: It looks a cracking edition of this Grade 2, much deeper than 12 months ago when Pic d'Orhy justified short odds with the minimum of fuss. But that’s not to say that the outcome will be any different. In fact, I’d have Pic d’Orhy as a clear favourite ahead of Edwardstone (tackling this sort of trip for the first time over fences) and Banbridge (having his first run of the campaign), both of whom arrive with a bit to prove. Pic d’Orhy, on the other hand, looks rock solid over a track and trip which really plays to his strengths, an enthusiastic front-runner who has been beaten just once in his last six starts over fences, picking up a Grade 1 and three Grade 2s along the way. It’s an excellent CV he’s quietly put together and it’s likely to take a genuinely top-class performance from one of the other pair to stop him from adding to it on Saturday. It remains to be seen whether an ageing Edwardstone is still capable of that sort of form, while rising star Banbridge is still yet to show it.

TM: There are only five runners but four of them have won at the highest level and the other, Notlongtillmay, was runner-up in the Turners Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last year so this is as strong a Grade 2 as you are likely to see in Britain this season. Edwardstone ran a much better race behind Jonbon in the Tingle Creek than he had on his return in the Shloer Chase and will be suited by conditions placing the emphasis on speed around this sharp track on a rare outing at two and a half miles (ran well in handicap company on only previous attempt at the trip). However, conditions will also suit Banbridge and, with the prospect of more to come in only his second season over fences, I marginally prefer the claims of Joseph O'Brien's raider.

4. Is there a horse running this weekend that you have your eye on for Cheltenham or Aintree?

BL: On the podcast on Wednesday we were asked to nominate a horse flying under the radar for Cheltenham and I thought Broadway Boy, at 16/1 for the Brown Advisory, fitted the bill nicely. He runs in the Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick on Saturday under a penalty and I’ll have a keen eye on him, but before that it’s the usually informative Pertemps Qualifier that horses like Sire Du Berlais and Third Wind have come out of before winning at the Festival in recent years. Sire Du Berlais’ trainer Gordon Elliott runs Mel Monroe this time around and she’s a fascinating mare stepping up to a staying trip for the first time. A point winner bred for three miles, it won’t surprise anyone that she’s already as low as 14s for the Final itself, but those odds could be trimmed further with a positive showing this weekend.

AH: The aforementioned Edwardstone has been flagged up as a potential springer in the ante-post betting for the Ryanair should he be successful at Kempton on Saturday, but what about that Pic d'Orhy at a general 33/1 (or 16/1 NRNB)? True, last year Pic d’Orhy skipped Cheltenham to wait for Aintree – where he won the Marsh Chase in good style – and there’s a chance he could do the same again in 2024. But I’d argue that Pic d’Orhy would be well worth his place in a Ryanair which has a muddled look to it after below-par runs from the likes of Allaho and Stage Star in recent weeks. There certainly isn’t a Shishkin to scare him off like there was last year, that horse having dismissed him at Ascot a few weeks earlier. Pic d’Orhy – who has largely been kept to flat tracks in his chasing career so far – is a far more assured jumper now than he was in his early days and I don’t see a reason why Cheltenham should hold any fears for him.

TM: The Ryanair Chase looks wide open as Allaho probably isn't the force of old, Stage Star has to bounce back from his flop in handicap company on New Year's Day and Envoi Allen didn't run to a daunting standard when winning the contest last season. Whoever wins the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton will probably advance their Ryanair Chase claims and Banbridge is the one who interests me most. He missed the Festival last season but it's worth recalling that he made his big breakthrough in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle at the meeting in 2022.

5. What’s your best bet of the weekend?

BL: Having been asked the same question on Get Stuck In and the podcast I’m going to have to stick with Pepe Le Moko in the Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Chase at Kempton (3.15). He’s an upwardly mobile novice chaser that is a danger to all from the bottom of the weights, his Plumpton second in December boosted emphatically by Scarface and Godot at the same track last weekend. Trainer Jane Williams is in good form and she won this race a few years ago with Erick Le Rouge, while co-owner Len Jakeman is well used to success on this card having been involved with Lanzarote winners James De Vassy and Tea For Two.

AH: Colonel Harry should take plenty of beating in the Grade 2 William Hill Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby (1.10) having impressed in his first two starts over fences, first making a winning debut at Chepstow in November and then producing an even better effort when filling the runner-up spot in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown last time. He was beaten just a length and a quarter on the last occasion, taking time to find full stride once asked for his effort and still gaining at the line. Admittedly, that wasn’t the strongest Grade 1 by any means, but the form is still comfortably the best on offer in these calmer waters and the likeable Colonel Harry shaped at Sandown like a horse who would improve for a step up in trip.

TM: Grey Dawning is going to face a much better version of Apple Away than the one he readily brushed aside at Haydock in November but I'd still expect him to uphold the form in the Hampton Novices' Chase (2.24) Warwick. Grey Dawning, who had the benefit of a promising run over fences under his belt, proved far too sharp for chasing debutant Apple Away in a steadily-run two-and-three-quarter mile graduation chase that placed the emphasis on speed, but he still deserves plenty of credit for how stylishly he completed the task, putting in a bold round of jumping on his way around. It was a jumping lapse at a crucial time that cost him when runner-up at Cheltenham last time but he showed enough there to suggest he's well up to making his mark in graded chases, while his strength up the run-in bodes well as he steps back up to three miles. He was third behind Stay Away Fay and The Changing Man over this trip at Exeter in November but he may have needed the run on his return and this sharper track will play to his strengths. Odds of 9/4 look fair and it's surprising he's not favourite here.

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