Weekend Racing: Expert Panel on Betfair Super Saturday at Newbury and more

It’s Betfair Super Saturday at Newbury and Britain’s principal Cheltenham Gold Cup hope runs – do you take on ‘squiggle horse’ Shishkin in the Denman Chase?

Matt Brocklebank: It's a no-bet race, looking at the early market, but to suggest it's a no-interest race couldn't be further from the truth. If you listen to Nicky Henderson then he sounds very confident he's got Shishkin right back to where he wants him ahead of the Gold Cup and if he's going to be a player at the Festival then he simply has to win this - and win well. But nobody in their right mind can completely bank on him jumping off with the others after what happened earlier in the season and he still needed cajoling along early in the King George before leading and then unfortunately unseating rider when seemingly in control of the race. Protektorat has also taken a while to find his form this year but may be peaking at the right time and it's not hard to envisage him giving the favourite one or two problems, as he did to L'Homme Presse (to whom he was conceding 4lb) at Lingfield last time.

Tony McFadden: Shishkin's refusal to set off at Ascot, plus another couple of occasions when he's looked sluggish in the opening couple of furlongs, would be enough to make me wary about taking a short price in Saturday's Betfair Denman Chase. However, his performance in the King George, which I thought he looked set to win with a deal of authority until exiting in luckless fashion after the second-last, served a reminder that this is an exceptionally talented horse and not one that should be opposed lightly. I'm sitting this one out but am hoping he comes through the test as I see him as a genuine threat to Galopin des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Andy Asquith: While I won't be getting involved in this race financially, I think it is Shishkin's to lose, as there is no doubting that he is still capable of top-class form on his day. He blotted his copybook somewhat when refusing to race at Ascot on his return in November, but the cheekpieces he had on that day were quickly discarded, and I and several other people that I know and respect also thought that he would have more than likely won the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day prior to stumbling and unseating his rider two from home. His opposition in this race is a little thin on the ground and he arguably won't need to be at his very best to get the job done, so I certainly wouldn't want to lay him, put it that way.

Several question marks over the field for the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase, but is Boothill the ‘now’ horse in this one?

Matt Brocklebank: You can't really rule any of them out in truth and a clear round from Boothill will give him every chance in receipt of 2lb from Editeur Du Gite and Edwardstone, who are both rated 162 and fully entitled to win at Grade 2 level if bringing anything close to their best. Funambule Sivola obviously loves this race and might come back to life here, but Amarillo Sky could be the interesting one at a price. The Tizzards have had big-race success on this card in the past and their eight-year-old is still lightly-raced with a good strike-rate over fences (4-10). He's also shone the last twice he's been to this course (fell two-out when leading here as a novice too) so perhaps it's been his target for a while. He's got another layoff to overcome so it'll all come down to whether I think he's over-priced on the day.

Tony McFadden: I still see Edwardstone as very much the one to beat in this. Yes, he was disappointing in the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton last time and his record over the last 12 months or so is starting to look a little patchy. However, it's easy enough to overlook the Kempton effort as it was his first attempt at two and a half miles over fences and he never really settled. It's only two months since he was an excellent second to Jonbon in the Tingle Creek, clocking a good time in the process, and with front-runners Editeur du Gite and Calico in the field here he should have things run to suit.

Andy Asquith: The one thing that concerns me regarding Boothill is whether or not he'll run after listening to his jockey Jonathan Burke on Get Stuck In. The weather forecast is grim and if Newbury do get too much rain he stated it would not be to Boothill's liking and he may not even line up, while he is also returning from a heavy fall in the Desert Orchid. On the previous form he has shown this season, he would be the one to beat, but it may not be as clear cut as that. It is clear that Edwardstone hasn't quite been at his best since his victory in the 2022 Tingle Creek, but he didn't run too badly when losing out to Jonbon on his first two starts this season, and you can put a line through his latest run in a steadily-run race over two and a half miles. For that reason I may be edging more towards him as, just like Shishkin, he may not have that much to beat, especially given Editeur du Gite had a hard enough race in the Clarence House just two weeks ago.

The wet weather could have a major baring on the Betfair Hurdle, so who do you expect to relish conditions?

Matt Brocklebank: Plenty will love the ground you'd imagine, including Spirit D'Aunou, Brentford Hope and Altobello, while Ocastle Des Mottes could clearly be anything on debut for Willie Mullins. L'Eau Du Sud has been on my radar for ages but I'm not sure I can back him as he's hardly being missed in the betting, which isn't surprising given his connections, and I can see myself casting the net even wider in the hope of landing on some value. I've a lot of respect for Donnacha, it's just whether he's going to need a longer trip to really thrive at this sort of level, and Ito Ditto was a ready winner of a novice event at Chepstow over Christmas, while conditions could suit him too so as you can tell, it's a pretty lengthy shortlist at this stage!

Tony McFadden: Lookaway has run twice on ground considered heavy by Timeform and he ran well on both occasions, winning a bumper at this venue on his debut under Rules and finishing runner-up in the competitive Greatwood Handicap Hurdle on his penultimate start. He also ran well on soft ground when runner-up in the Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle over two and a half miles here last time, sticking to his task in likeable fashion. That stamina could come in handy on the forecast testing ground.

Andy Asquith: I put up Kamsinas for the Betfair Hurdle in the Weekend View column earlier in the week and I'm still happy with that bet, but as I pointed out in that space, the one horse who most concerns me is Iberico Lord. The form of his Greatwood win, which came in heavy ground, could hardly have worked out any better, and he wasn't suited by the test of speed at Ascot last time. The return to more testing conditions will definitely see him in a better light, and he represents a yard that know what it takes to win this valuable handicap, while there is almost certainly still mileage in his current mark of 134.

Give us one other name on the radar either in Britain or Ireland this weekend…

Matt Brocklebank: Keep an eye out for the 'Rated Hurdle' that kicks off the Naas card on Saturday. Band Of Outlaws won it in 2019 before following up in the Fred Winter and both Aramax (2020) and Brazil (2022) have pulled off the same double subsequently too. Joseph O'Brien's Lark In The Mornin skipped a midweek engagement to come of this instead and he has a lovely profile (currently rated 118 in Ireland) with the Cheltenham Festival handicap in mind.

Tony McFadden: We don't have the final fields for Sunday's cards yet, but Goshhowposh is likely to be high on my shortlist for the Pertemps qualifier (15:35) at Exeter. He has won both completed starts since going handicapping his season, including over course and distance on his reappearance in October. He still didn't look like the finished article when winning at Wincanton last time, but he found plenty for pressure and appeals as one with more to offer.

Andy Asquith: Emitom is a horse I'm interested in at Newbury in the three-mile handicap hurdle. He finished runner-up to Young Butler over course and distance on his reappearance, looking the likeliest winner after jumping the last, but seemingly getting a little tired on the run-in. His latest run when runner-up to subsequent winner Saint Davy reads well and he can boast form figures at Newbury of 112. The likely ground won't be a problem for him and, based on the pick of his efforts, he remains on a fair mark. With race-fitness now on his side I fancy him to run a big race.

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