Nic Doggett, Matt Brocklebank, Ben Linfoot and David Ord discuss this weekend's action including the Cumberland Lodge Stakes.
Blue Bolt long odds-on to win the Sun Chariot – are there any grounds to take her on?
Matt Brocklebank: I wouldn’t be in a hurry to take on Blue Bolt as she arrives in scintillating form this year, but there’s bound to be the odd ‘betting without the favourite’ market come Saturday and I think the race for second could be quite interesting. City Of Memphis chased her home in the Matron but I wonder if a return to the Rowley Mile could see Evolutionist produce a career-best effort. She’s been fourth to the favourite on the July Course and in Deauville on her two most recent starts, but she was runner-up in the 1000 Guineas and ran well here when finishing third in last season’s Fillies’ Mile here too. She’ll surely go from the front under Shane Foley and can outrun her odds.
Nic Doggett: I liked Fallen Angel and the prospect of an easy lead, so with Karl Burke's filly not declared, I'm for Blue Bolt. She's pretty adaptable in where she can be ridden and Colin Keane should be wise to any tactical moves. I think City Of Memphis will get closer than in the Matron, but not close enough to cause an upset.
Ben Linfoot: I don’t think so. Her last defeat came in this race last year but that was a career-best performance at the time and she was second to a thriving older filly in Fallen Angel. She handled the track just fine and she is now that thriving older filly - and one of the stars of the season. With the ground in her favour and the opposition a rung below her level, odds of 4/7 are arguably big.
David Ord: A hard season is the only thing, isn't it? I wouldn't be in a rush to do so either. She was very good in the Matron, there's no reason to think City Of Memphis can reverse the form and she's nicely clear of the rest on Timeform ratings too. A race to to watch.
William Haggas looks to have a strong hand in the Cumberland Lodge – who’s on your radar?
BL: He does, but I thought Tenability improved for the softer ground at Windsor and life will be harder for Al Aasy under a Group 2 penalty. I’d probably take on the Haggas pair with Charlie Appleby’s By The Book who could reverse Beverley form with Al Aasy off 5lb better terms here. He stays further but won’t mind dropping back to 1m4f in this and after a light campaign I think there’s more to come from him.
DO: I share the concerns of the others that Tenability's best form is under easier conditions. He might well still come out on top but at around 6/1 I'd prefer to take a chance on Royal Power. Taking a chance is exactly what we're doing given he hasn't been seen since finishing fourth behind Calandagan in the Sheema Classic in the spring but Charlie Appleby is firing on all cylinders right now and the son of Frankel is underestimated in the market if ready to rumble. He'll love the ground.
MB: This is a hard race to call but if I was forced into a bet I might take a chance on Royal Power too. He looks versatile tactically which should be beneficial in this six-runner field and there was no shame in his finishing six-lengths fourth to Calandagan at Meydan. He’s not done much racing domestically but should be suited to the underfoot conditions and trainer Charlie Appleby will clearly have him straight for his run outing since the spring.
ND: You could make the argument to say that Tenability’s best form has come on slower ground, but I think he’s very adaptable and for me he's a typical Haggas improver, who is still on the upgrade.
Thunder Call is short for the Challenge Cup – how do you see the race?
DO: He's in good hands and improving but needs to come forward again and as a result of his presence you're getting a very fair price about Moonfall. He's shaped as if ahead of this mark on his last two runs, here and at Doncaster, doing well to get as close as he did to Scoville at Town Moor after a troubled passage. He'll need luck but good track form, a decent draw and the quick surface are all in his favour.
ND: He is short, isn’t he? But is that because he will just win? He has a different profile to the yard’s most recent three-year-old winner, Aldaary (2021), but he was an equally well-supported favourite who went on to better things and Champions Sprint entry Thunder Call feels a bit like that. I thought he might be saved for the mile handicap in a few weeks, but I’m a big fan of Moonfall who looked unlucky at Doncaster and he’s the one I'll be on each-way. He’s got the pace for seven furlongs in this sort of race, and the stiff finish will see him to good effect.
MB: I thought Thunder Call won a relatively poor race for the money over this course and distance last month and is probably one to take on in a deeper field having been hit with an 8lb rise in the ratings. There are several potential each-way alternatives including Desert Shadow for Saeed bin Suroor, George Boughey’s progressive three-year-old Moonfall and River King, who I backed when quite an eye-catching fourth over a mile at Doncaster last month. The latter might just get my vote at this stage.
BL: He is short isn’t he, for all he was impressive over the course and distance last time the 9lb higher mark could do for him. I’d certainly rather look elsewhere at the prices and one that immediately stood out was Poet Master for Karl Burke at big odds. He is a classy horse relative to this field and he goes well after a break, while the nature of a big-field handicap might just help him settle as he has been racing too keenly in smaller-field pattern events.
Give us another horse on your radar for Saturday?
BL: I wouldn’t be afraid of taking Sunly on in the Prix de Royallieu and last year’s runner-up Santorini Star appeals for William Haggas. Beaten by Consent in very soft ground last year, better conditions look in her favour 12 months on and I see no reason why she won’t make a bold bid from the front in a race where her main rivals will probably be ridden with more restraint.
MB: Purview should be backed at 10/1 (12s if you’re willing to shop around) for the Breeders’ Cup Turf prior to his run in the Canadian International. Dermot Weld and Colin Keane are adamant the nature of racing in that part of the world is going to suit him and it’s hard to disagree – the son of Kingman has got a potent turn of foot and he just wasn’t able to show it off last time when a never-nearer third behind the well-ridden Arabian Crown who was able to dictate moderate fractions. They’ll go hard early at Woodbine on Saturday ands Chris Hayes, who knows Purview well, should be able to deliver him in the straight. He could be more like 4/1 for the big one at Keeneland if all goes to plan in the prep.
ND: Up at Redcar, the Two-Year-Old Trophy looks a potentially strong renewal, so I’m a bit less interested in Stardom Glory than I otherwise would be; he caught my eye behind Night In Vegas at Doncaster last time out. I’ll put forward Ziggy’s Triton in the last there at 17:40. A quick five furlongs is his cup of tea, as wins at Musselburgh and York this year help emphasise, and he’s only 1 lb higher than when bumping into a well-backed, unexposed Michael Dods runner at Southwell last time out. Still able to race in this 0-85 grade, he can make all.
DO: Stable stalwart Regional runs in the Rous Stakes at Ascot for Ed Bethell but stablemate Fluorescence looks even more interesting in the same race. She was very good winning a listed race at Ayr last time on soft ground but had previously been a good fourth in a handicap over this course-and-distance on the sort of surface she'll face at the weekend. She's a thriving mare this autumn and for all Tico Salamanca looks a worthy market leader, the northern raider can hit the frame at the least with her yard in great form right now.
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