Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Dave Massey

Recommended Bets: November 11

0.5pts e.w Foxcub in 12.55 Exeter at 28/1 (minimum 20/1)

1pt win Tedham in 2.36 Exeter at 17/2 (minimum 7/1)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Fox A Crafty Bet - 12.55 Exeter - Foxcub

Backing a 12yo that hasn’t been seen on a racecourse (of any sort) for two years looks like a fast way to burn a tenner but there are clues that Foxcub might not be the lost cause those stats make him out to be.

His trainer Ryan Potter has yet to get off the mark for the season but that really doesn’t tell the whole story. He’s twice hit the bar with horses that have been pointing and then returned to the track after long absences, with Brave Jaq beaten a short-head at Stratford and TB Broke Her trading odds-on and looking the likely winner at Hereford before fading out of it. It later transpired she had bled, so it was hardly a surprise she stopped as quickly as she did.

Foxcub was a classy handicapper at his peak, rated 144 and Ryan has already won three times with him on the pointing circuit, including one at Cheltenham’s May meeting. He’s identified a suitable opportunity back over hurdles here and for a 12yo, he’s not got that many miles on the clock. He’s also entered up again at Plumpton next Monday, which is encouraging (he wouldn’t pick up a penalty for winning this conditionals race) and a mark of just 106 gives him every chance if the fire still burns.

He's worth back each-way with those bookies paying four places (William Hill and Bet Victor are those odds and those place terms). Sky Bet are going five places at 25/1 and bet365 are 33s but are only three places.

1.20 Bangor - Liberty Bella

She can’t really be put up as a bet, because you’d want the dead eight to line up and a non-runner basically scuppers the each-way angle to the race, but if you offered me some 40/1 plus about Liberty Bella here, she'd be of some interest.

On the figures she’s got plenty to find and can’t beat Stormy Ireland on her Newton Abbot running last time out, but she was never really put in the race there and a sharp 2m was always going to prove inadequate anyway. She’s run as well as can be expected there, finishing 19l behind Stormy Ireland and I can see her getting closer with another furlong and much softer ground, both of which are in her favour.

Often given stiff tasks over hurdles, facing the likes of Dame De Compagnie and Magic Of Light last season, she faces another one here but with question marks over a few of her rivals on trainer form, or their fitness after absences, or indeed the suitability of very soft/heavy ground, she could outrun her likely big odds again today.

Take Tedham To Win - 2.36 Exeter - Tedham

We’re both of the opinion that Tedham looks the sort to make a better chaser than hurdler, and although there are more likely winners in here, he looks overpriced to our eyes and is worth a bet on his chasing debut at 17/2 (Hills, Bet Victor).

Things didn’t quite go to plan for him last year, and he looked to have been laid out for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham but some bad luck in running meant he didn’t get the qualifying place he needed to get in, and his season came to an end in January. He had caught the eye several times in competitive handicap hurdles, often well backed, and remains unexposed at this trip.

There’s plenty of chasers in the family, with the good stayers Sail By The Stars and Theatrical Star amongst the best of them. Jonjo had a chase winner with Hang Tough today, which broke a bit of a losing sequence with his chasers but plenty of them had hit the bar. Tedham looks a good prospect this year, and he can kick off his campaign this year with a win.

Posted at 1750 GMT on 10/11/20

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