Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

This is the time of year when the following season’s Classic picture starts to take shape and Newmarket staged five Group races last week for juveniles.

The first of them, the Group Three Tattersalls (formerly Somerville Tattersalls) Stakes saw a very close finish between Alyanaabi, last seen finishing fourth behind Rosallion in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot that has started to work out so very well with the winner going on to win the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere and both Al Husnak and Dancing Gemini going on to win listed races, and Boiling Point with over two lengths back to the remainder.

The winning timefigure was a relatively modest 86 so it’s reflective of Alyanaabi’s ability that he was able to win at all given how far back he came from as the pace quickened ahead of him while he was finding trouble getting a clear run, being the only winner on the day to make up more than three lengths on the leader from the three-furlong marker.

Is Alyanaabi a potential Classic winner? Like most recent winners of the race, I expect he’ll fall short of the top level but there’s surely more improvement in him when he steps up to a mile.

What was the Classic filly in the Rockfel?

Friday’s Rockfel Stakes, won by Carla’s Way in a smart 105 timefigure, looks to me a more likely Classic pointer. Whether it will be her or the previously unbeaten runner-up Shuwari, or even the third-placed Ylang Ylang, who takes the necessary step forward remains to be seen but in different ways I was impressed with all three of them.

The winner, who’d gone like easily the best horse at the weights only to be found out by heavy ground in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood last time, looked very much at home under these faster conditions but was handed something of an open goal with Oisin Murphy on Shuwari having the runner-up too far back as he focussed on Ylang Ylang on his inside.

Timeform’s sectional upgrades have Shuwari coming out a better horse than Carla’s Way which might well be the case at a mile, but I wouldn’t mind betting Ylang Ylang, whose early form lines are strong and who was given a confidence-boosting ride to creep late on into third, will prove the best of the trio as a three-year-old.

Saturday’s card kicked off with the Royal Lodge Stakes quickly followed by the Cheveley Park Stakes and the Middle Park.

Royal Lodge winner looks Guineas contender

I’d been impressed with Ghostwriter at Ascot last time when he defied a penalty in a novice in a fast timefigure, and he fulfilled that promise by improving a chunk more to win the Royal Lodge. With just over four lengths covering the first seven the obvious conclusion might be that the form isn’t up to much but a 110 timefigure after travelling easily the best from a long way out says otherwise and given that three of the 17 Royal Lodge contestants who have then taken in the 2000 Guineas this century ended up winning the first Classic, then it's no surprise to see the 25/1 odds disappear in the last few days.

In stark contrast, none of the 31 horses who have run in the Middle Park this century who then went on to run in the 2000 have been successful, with only Zafeen in 2003 making the first two.

That’s a tall statistic for Vandeek to overcome, and a pedigree that is all speed in a year when the standard of the juvenile six-furlong colts’ races has been notably low suggests to me he’s a most unlikely winner for all he’s currently third favourite in the betting.

It wouldn’t concern me in respect of his future chances - in all likelihood he’s a sprinter - that he recorded a slower time than Porta Fortuna (107 timefigure and then a 3lb upgrade) in the Cheveley Park as that’s not an uncommon occurrence since the two races have taken place on the same day and Dream Ahead, U S Navy Flag and Perfect Power are among those who ran slower than the fillies’ winner on the day.

The 1000 is a much more common target for Cheveley Park runners than the 2000 is for Middle Park runners with 56 of them taking in both races and four of them being successful.

If there was a horse in the Cheveley Park this year who will make the step up it might well be runner-up Pearls And Rubies who looked a smashing sort physically and is bred to relish the extra two furlongs.

Trueshan handles ground fine in Cadran

Over in Paris the biggest talking point ahead of Arc weekend was the state of the ground with the official going report (soft side of good) conflicting with updates given out by France Galop that confirmed there had been very little watering and next to no rainfall prior to the meeting with temperatures exceeding 21 degrees.

Timeform’s time-based going descriptions for ParisLongchamp this year have been at least a category faster than the official in nearly every instance and the very fast conditions caught out Chris Hayes in the opening Prix Chaudenay which he would surely have won readily had he kept the Dermot Weld-trained runner Harbour Wind closer to the leaders given he ran each of the last five 200m sections faster than the winner Double Major according to the official tracking data.

Despite being pulled out of races numerous times over the past three years because of fast conditions, Trueshan found them no bar to winning the Prix du Cadran, settling much better in front than he has often done ridden with restraint, and he was the rightful winner even if the runner-up Moon Wolf ran a faster last 200m.

Sea Silk Road, the Pinnacle Stakes winner on firm ground at Haydock earlier this year and since placed in the Yorkshire Oaks and Prix Vermeille, relished the step up to a mile and three quarters for the first time in the Prix de Royallieu and reversed Vermeille form with Melo Melo who along with Sumo Sam seemed to find conditions too quick.

Poker Face continued an excellent few days for the Crisford team by taking the Prix Daniel Widenstein and though the sectionals might suggest he was the worthy winner, he came in for an excellent ride (it was the third winner of the afternoon for Maxime Guyon) unlike third-placed Belbek who for the second start running under the same rider looked unfortunate not to have finished a lot closer.

It was good to see Horizon Dore, a horse I have written plenty about glowingly this year, win the Prix Dollar in emphatic fashion despite being set plenty to do. As I mentioned after his win in the Prix du Prince d’Orange last time, he’s a strong travelling horse with a turn of foot ideally suited to quick conditions and though his ability is now out in the open for all to see I’d wait and see what how the ground is riding before supporting in the QIPCO Champion Stakes for which he is currently favourite. His 32.7 seconds for the last 600m was easily the fastest of any of the horses who ran on the day.

Unlike Horizon Dore, the other French horse I’ve been trumpeting all year, Beauvatier, couldn’t extend his winning run in the Jean-Luc Lagardere. I wasn’t disappointed by his performance as he ran well given the task he was set on ground surely faster than ideal, but he somehow found himself in last place turning for home and his rider then compounded that poor position by waiting far too long to deliver his challenge only to then get hampered once he’d committed.

Hannon has Classic colt in Rosallion

This looked a good renewal of a race that has been won by subsequent Group One winners Sealiway and Victor Ludorum in recent years and which the Hannon yard won with subsequent Lockinge winner Olympic Glory back in 2012.

Rosallion’s 32.62 final 600m was the fastest all day outside the l’Abbaye won by Highfield Princess and he has to enter 2000 Guineas calculations for which he’s now 14/1.

So too does Prix Marcel Boussac winner Opera Singer for the 1000 Guineas. She undoubtedly had the run of a steadily-run race from the front but even so is worth upgrading several pounds over the runner-up if not third-placed Les Pavots who was only a length slower over the final 600m on ground that was noticeably quicker than she’d been impressive on when winning her previous two races.

Neither the Arc nor the l’Opera were particularly strongly run, and it’s maybe not surprising that in those circumstances on the prevailing ground the fastest final 600m’s in the Arc were run by Ace Impact, the wide-margin Prix de Jockey Club winner who’d never run beyond 2100m previously, and last year’s Irish Champion runner-up Onesto who’d been the last off the bridle in the Prix Jacques le Marois over a mile on his reappearance six weeks previously.

The sectionals might not suggest it but in the speed-favouring circumstances I’d say the efforts of second-placed strong stayer Westover and the St Leger winner Continuous both need upgrading, while seventh-placed Sispahan, last seen finishing second behind Arc tenth Simca Mille in Germany, is another whose effort is better than it might first appear.

The Opera was even more tactical than the Arc and didn’t start to take shape until the home turn. It was always going to take a good one to outrun dual French Classic winner Blue Rose Cen from that point but both sixth-placed Jannah Rose and eighth-placed Stay Alert managed to come home faster from there with Jannah Rose’s 32.7 last 600m, the second fastest all day, worth a 6lb upgrade in my book which would have seen her pretty much level with Blue Rose Cen at the line had she not been ridden so far back.

The Abbaye was something of a messy affair with George Boughey’s front-running Perdika nearly pulling off a front-running shock but she couldn’t hold on and along with Kerdos ended up causing trouble for some of those in behind with Equilateral and Bouttemont most notably impeded.

That said, another horse I’ve put forward this year, Rogue Lightning, would almost certainly have won with a bit to spare had his rider Rab Havlin (who was having just his first ride over Longchamp’s straight five furlongs) not elected to drop in from his high draw and try his luck on the far rail.

Unfortunately, there were no sectionals returned for the Prix de la Foret but the winner Kelina, who’d beaten subsequent Group One winner Sauterne at Chantilly in June and had met plenty of trouble when closing fast just behind Belbek in the Moulin last time, was the winner on merit from what I saw despite the protestations of the Kinross camp.

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