Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

With no official sectionals still, and those that have been made available from the Curragh up till now not always passing muster, thankfully those taken manually by Timeform were of great assistance but even then it was a tough sheet, difficult even by usual Curragh standards, and in the circumstances the process, as ever when there is rain around, is to proceed cautiously.

The feature race, sponsored by Juddmonte, was won in remarkable fashion by Savethelastdance in a 107 timefigure, which can be upgraded to 110 after sectionals are incorporated but still comes in a few pounds below her 114 performance rating. The sponsors must have thought they were taking plenty of their own money home when Ribblesdale runner-up Bluestocking loomed up early in the straight and then hit the front inside the final furlong but the effort of making her run from the rear in a well-run race possibly took its toll late on and allowed Savethelastdance, who initially raced in third but had dropped back to fourth – and a hard-ridden fourth at that - over a furlong out to stay on relentlessly and even win a shade cosily in the end.

Ballydoyle may well already have a female candidate for the top staying races on soft ground in the shape of Emily Dickinson, who won the Comer Curragh Cup later in the card, but it strikes me that Savethelastdance (who is rated 116 compared to the 107 Emily Dickinson was at the same stage last season) may be equally if not more effective given the same sort of test and she’d seem to me a much better fit right now for the St Leger than the Yorkshire Oaks. After all, she was never going any better at Epsom in the Oaks than the finish where she stayed on strongly into second behind Soul Sister who had too much speed for her under the conditions, and her impressive finishing fractions in the Cheshire Oaks came at the end of a race run in such testing conditions most of her rivals were legless with two furlongs still to run.

The winning time for the Irish Oaks was the second slowest this century, probably testament to its recently remeasured distance as much as the underfoot conditions I suspect, and it was the same story in the Curragh Cup where only Chimes at Midnight in a race run at a crawl in 2001 has completed the course slower. The only occasion Emily Dickinson has encountered two miles or more on very testing ground she won with any amount in hand and one of those staying contests on Arc weekend surely has her name written on it should the ground come up soft or heavy.

Henry Longfellow, by Dubawi out of the 1000 Guineas and Oaks winner Minding, looked another potentially top-notch Ballydoyle youngster as he made an impressive debut in the best of the conditions in the opener in a 90 timefigure, while fellow youngster Kairyu retained his unbeaten record in the Anglesey Stakes in an identical timefigure and Art Power extended his unbeaten sequence in Ireland to five in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes. That unbeaten sequence maybe isn’t unsurprising given he’s never started bigger than 2/1 in any of those wins and three times has been sent off evens or shorter, suggesting the best Irish sprinters aren’t up to much, but despite being a six-year-old he remains unexposed at five furlongs.

You might have thought that a horse who won the Palace Of Holyrood as a three-year-old at Royal Ascot off a BHA mark of 97 easily by three and a half lengths would have been campaigned remorselessly at the minimum trip but, remarkably, the Sapphire was only Art Power’s fourth run at the trip since. A fluffed start ruined his chance on fast ground in the 2020 Nunthorpe since when he’s been inconvenienced by the outside stall on the wrong wing at Goodwood (where he was also slowly away) and Newcastle. A 120 timefigure in the Sapphire is a career best, improving on the 117 he has run twice including in the 2021 July Cup, and opens options at the minimum trip later this year when ground conditions are very soft. The Prix de l’Abbaye, a race his trainer Tim Easterby has three times finished third in with Pipalong (twice) and Hamish McGonagall, would seem the obvious autumn target.

So, what to make of ‘the Ripon two-year-old’ Asadna after his latest effort and first for new trainer Alice Haynes which saw him finish third of nine behind Action Point who had raced on the wrong side in the Windsor Castle Stakes on his previous start where he also lost a shoe. A disappointing while at the same time creditable effort then, if that’s not a contradiction, from a horse who on the clock (109) at the time of his debut had run well above the standard usually required from a two-year-old to win at the Royal meeting yet has since looked no more than useful.

Asadna is now rated by Timeform on the balance of his form (96) but I’m not yet in a hurry to recalculate his debut timefigure given his race was one of three over the same trip on the day and progression (or regression) is neither linear or predictable or consistent so far as lightly-raced immature youngsters are concerned. Hopefully, now Alice Haynes has had a bit of time to get to know him, he’ll take a step nearer his debut form next time but on the evidence of his Newbury run (timefigure 90) he looks to me in need of a step up to seven furlongs.

Crisfords' Van has an engine

The connections of Vandeek, who made an eye-catching debut at Nottingham last week, will be hoping his career path doesn’t follow the same trajectory as Asadna’s. By Havana Grey out of a mare Mosa Mine who wasn’t great shakes on the track herself but has produced the useful sprinter Mine’s A Double and the fairly useful five-furlong winner Becker, Vandeek was according to my sources the fastest breezer at the Craven Sales, running the first furlong around a quarter of a second faster than anything else, repeating that feat in the second furlong and then posting the third best ‘gallop out’.

No wonder then that he sold for 625,000 guineas and though his supporters would have been anguished by his awful start at Nottingham, standing still as the gates opened, he was well on top at the line despite running green. Sectionals extricated by Timeform from three furlongs out give Vandeek a minimal upgrade, but those supplied by Course Track from the two-furlong pole paint his performance in a much rosier light and take his overall time rating (base timefigure was 89) into the low 100s. Clearly well worthy of his large Timeform P on the face of it, Vandeek as yet doesn’t hold any fancy entries but the recent record of fast-timing expensive breezers second time up this year I’d be a little reluctant to go all in on him next time.

Another promising youngster to make an impression domestically was Sketch at Newbury on Saturday. An all-the-way win up the middle of the track by five lengths, Sketch is another without any fancy entries but a 93 timefigure on top of a 3lb upgrade for the final furlong using Course Track sectionals suggest he’s bound for a supplementary entry somewhere sometime soon.

Newbury’s Saturday card was the only one of the week at home to stage a Group race with the bet365 Hackwood Stakes going the way of upgraded handicapper Commanche Falls. An 80 timefigure was an unremarkable one on the back of a first three-furlong time over a second and a half slower than Sketch posted but given his profile - suited by a strongly-run race – I suspect this ground-out win is a fair bit better than it looks on paper. Relief Rally won the day’s feature, the Weatherbys Super Sprint, impressively in a 100 timefigure, strong enough at the finish to think she’ll have no trouble staying six furlongs should she head for the Lowther, though the most eye-catching split time of the day was posted by Al Aasy in the listed Steventon Stakes, a 10.95 third-last furlong the only one of the day under 11 seconds at that point according to Course Track and each of his last two furlongs bettered only by Commanche Falls.

Cross Channel challengers to note

Last week was also a quiet one on the pattern front in France where, as in Britain, there was just the one Group race, the Grand Prix de Vichy at (unsurprisingly) Vichy. The Grand Prix de Vichy might have a grand title but only carries Group 3 status and isn’t a race much targeted by British trainers with the latest challenger One For Bobby, trained by Hughie Morrison, just the third from these shores since 2010 and the first since 2013 when Making Eyes (who was bred by the same operation as One For Bobby) finished fifth for Hugo Palmer.

Possibly the only European Group race to be run under floodlights on turf (I stand to be corrected here) the Grand Prix was a truly international affair with Spain and Qatar represented as well as Britain and France. One For Bobby, winner of the Nottinghamshire Oaks on her reappearance and a place behind Nashwa in the Hoppings Stakes on her most recent start, looked to have a few pounds to find with the likes of Bolthole, looking for a first Group win after a brace of wins in listed races, and Kertez, who was taking a drop in grade after chasing home Simca Mille in the Grand Prix de Chantilly last time, but took her form forward another notch with a win that looked on the cards from some way out.

Whether she has improved quite as much as the result suggests I’m not sure as the race was proof once again that jockeyship and tactics can override everything else.

There were eight races at Vichy on Wednesday night and Christophe Soumillon, who rode One For Bobby, also won with his only other ride, on both occasions making a decisive move towards the stand rail whereas the other riders mostly stayed in middle of the track. Not that connections, who only acquired her at the start of this season from Johnny Murtagh, will be too bothered about that or the winning time being the second fastest in the race since 2010 but given how strongly she saw her race out you’d think being by Frankel connections might be looking for a weak Group 2 somewhere now over a mile and a half. One For Bobby extended Morrison’s remarkable recent record in France, winning with six of his last eleven runners there and three of his last five. Well worth remembering if he sends something across the Channel later this season.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org