Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

So Royal Ascot is over for another year and, as has been well documented, was another tough one for punters – Charlie Appleby drew a blank for the second time in four years and remarkably, a £1 bet placed on every horse at the Royal meeting this year at Betfair starting price would have returned a profit well in excess of £600.

Using the more familiar starting price metric and concentrating on the period since 2002 when the meeting was first extended to five days, there wasn’t a single winner returned bigger than 28/1 until 2006 since when 30 winners have been returned at 33/1 or larger with, curiously, nearly half that number (13) having come in the last four years.

For all I wrote in my last column how powerful a pointer to likely performance at the Royal meeting fast timefigures recorded before Royal Ascot are, six of the 11 biggest starting prices have come in the two-year-old races with the 150/1 Valiant Force was returned at in this year’s Norfolk equalling that of 2020 Coventry winner Nando Parrado. Food for thought ahead of next year’s meeting, certainly.

Two-year-old races under the microscope

I might as well start with the two-year-olds and though the week started well with one of the horses I mentioned in my last column, River Tiber, winning the Coventry, albeit at a skinny 11/8, none of the others (who I’ll refer to later in this paragraph) from the same unit ran well for various reasons.

River Tiber’s winning 103 timefigure is fairly low for a Coventry winner but the race gave an early nudge to the strength of the Irish juvenile form with Curragh maiden winner Bucanero Fuerte finishing third and Marble Hill winner Givemethebeatboys fourth. The race saw a disappointing effort from the much-talked-about Asadna who had run a 109 timefigure at Ripon, but he’d been weak in the market since the entries were known and, one of the smallest in the field by all accounts, it’s hard to know what the future holds for him now he’s joined Alice Haynes.

On Wednesday, Crimson Advocate and Big Evs took the Queen Mary and Windsor Castle respectively. Whether we’ll see the American-trained Crimson Advocate again I’m not sure, but her win in a 98 timefigure is a long way below the standard on the clock set by fellow Americans Lady Aurelia and Jealous Again in the race several years previously and I’m not convinced this form is that strong.

In contrast, the 102 timefigure returned by Big Evs in the Windsor Castle is one of the best in the race this century and his three-length winning distance has been bettered in that time only by Hootenanny (whose trainer Wesley Ward had another blank year, none of his runners finishing closer than eleventh) and Ardad, both of whom went on to win pattern races later in the season.

Barnwell Boy, another of the sextet I mentioned in my last column, managed only eleventh, but it was a bizarre decision to drop him to five furlongs and he shouldn’t be judged on this effort. The Irish were back on the scoresheet in the Norfolk with the aforementioned Valiant Force, whose solo up the far side in the Marble Hill last time had clearly disguised his merit to a large degree.

A 106 timefigure is well up to scratch and five furlongs clearly looks to suit him better than six. National Stakes winner Elite Status (whose trainer Karl Burke endured a winless week despite some high-profile runners) ran respectably in third (timefigure 100) but couldn’t repeat his Sandown effort and end the voodoo of high-scoring timefigure two-year-olds from the National at Royal Ascot. Nevertheless, history indicates he’ll win a pattern race at some point this year, probably at five furlongs, with the Flying Childers looking the likeliest option.

Both the remaining races, the Albany Stakes and the Chesham Stakes, also went to Irish-trained runners. Navassa Island wasn’t able to overturn Group 3 Fillies’ Sprint form with Porta Fortuna and she, along with Carla’s Way, another of the horses I mentioned in my last column, were among several youngsters who cost a packet at the Breeze Ups (Asadna being another) to run disappointingly at the meeting.

Porta Fortuna’s 103 timefigure is among the better ones recorded in the Albany and she shapes as though she’ll be even better at seven furlongs. Snellen led home an Irish one-two in the Chesham, Champion Hurdle-winning trainer Gavin Cromwell getting the better of Aidan O’Brien, but an 80 timefigure and a very bunched finish suggests the form is mediocre by historical standards.

Paddington pick of the Classic crop

Pride of place among the three-year-olds – and by some way – went to Paddington in the St James’s Palace Stakes. I suggested several weeks ago that it would come as no surprise if something improved past Chaldean once Ascot came around, but I wasn’t expecting that horse to be Paddington who hadn’t even taken in the Irish 2000 Guineas at that point. A 125 timefigure is a high one by historical comparison and though he and Chaldean had the race between them in the straight there never looked any point that Paddington wouldn’t come out on top by a wide margin. The way he ran through the line suggests he’ll prove even better over another two furlongs.

Chaldean ran right up to his best on the clock in second, his 116 timefigure here just 1lb shy of the 117 he recorded in the Dewhurst, but even though he’s a very late foal, not born until the end of May, it looks as if his improvement has come to an end. French 2000 Guineas runner-up Isaac Shelby (111) was 6lb short of the level he ran to in the Greenham and his run rather confirmed impressions last time that he’ll be better off dropping back in trip.

Second best among the timefigures put up by the three-year-old winners was Gregory’s 114 in the Queen’s Vase, which is the best in the race since it had a couple of furlongs lopped off its distance in 2017. Like the last two winners Kemari and Eldar Eldarov, Gregory was winning the race on just his third start and given the previous winners since the race has been run over a mile and three quarters include two St Leger winners (Kew Gardens and Eldar Eldarov), an Irish Derby winner (Santiago) as well as Stradivarius, and Gregory beat a bigger field than all of them, then it’s no surprise that he’s currently ante-post favourite for the St Leger.

Other than the St James’s Palace Stakes, the other three Group 1 contests won by three-year-olds returned some insignificant timefigures with Bradsell posting a 106 in the King’s Stand, Shaquille a 104 in the Commonwealth Cup and Tahiyra a lowly 82 in the Coronation Stakes.

Bradsell’s win in a race three-year-olds have struggled in over the last decade or so (the only winner in that time frame being Lady Aurelia, who, like Bradsell, had also won at the meeting the previous year) suggests to me not only that the best of the older sprinters around won’t take much beating for the remainder of the season but also that he would probably have won the Commonwealth Cup had he run in that race instead. The Commonwealth Cup laid bare the massive advantage that Little Big Bear had on the rail at Haydock last time when Bradsell was third.

No disrespect to Shaquille, who is improving fast, but a bunched finish suggested the latest Commonwealth Cup was far from a vintage one and the race’s biggest talking point was surely the massive Exchange drift on the tailed-off Sakheer, a run that wasn’t even thought worthy of investigation by the stewards. Subsequently his trainer Roger Varian issued a statement on Monday saying the colt is "currently unsound and being investigated for a front limb lameness".

Tahiyra dispelled doubts about her ability to handle fast ground with a tidy performance in the Coronation, having too much speed off a steady pace for the opposition, though she would have had to work harder had Fred Darling winner Remarquee had better luck in running. Derby runner-up King of Steel won a steadily-run King Edward VII (timefigure 70) with easily the best turn of foot and heads now for the Grand Prix de Paris.

Time tops older horse rankings

The highest timefigure posted by an older horse all week came in the first race of the meeting with Triple Time returning a 123 in the Queen Anne, a race that has been won in recent years by Frankel in 128 and Baaeed in 126.

Triple Time was having his first run since last autumn when he disappointed in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein and though there was plenty of talk that Inspiral was the moral winner, coming from the rear while the winner was up with the pace, the sectionals don’t back up that opinion or take into account how fiercely Triple Time (who hit 200-1 in running) pulled.

Close up (122) behind Triple Time was Mostahdaf, who won a strongly-contested renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. He’d been beaten fair and square by Broome in the 2022 Hardwicke, so this success wasn’t easy to predict, even if his Neom Turf Cup win in Saudi Arabia earlier this year was at the time a career best.

On this evidence, being held up off a good pace at a mile and a quarter on fast ground is his bag but reigning Irish Champion Stakes winner Luxembourg will surely prove a different opponent should the pair meet back on his home turf in that race later in the year.

Another win that was hard to predict, unless you back Jamie Spencer blind at the Royal meeting on the straight track, which his record of 20 wins from 211 rides there this century suggests isn’t a bad idea, was Khaadem’s win in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, though a 120 timefigure getting up on the line to deny my fancy Sacred suggests he’s full value for it for all he’d looked better more recently at five furlongs.

That said, Khaadem had run a 118 timefigure when winning the 2019 Stewards’ Cup off a BHA mark of 107 and it‘s hard to excuse all 12 beaten starts over the distance since. Royal Champion ran a 116 when winning the Wolferton, a race that should really by now be carrying Group Three status, but the other high-profile Group races open to older horses were held back by a lack of pace.

Pyledriver made a successful return to action in the Hardwicke Stakes but the steadyish gallop meant the winning time was never going to set the clock alight and the final timefigure came in at 110. Courage Mon Ami posted a 104 in the Gold Cup after coming from the rear of the field and must be a top-class staying prospect to win the race on just his fourth start (Estimate, Kyprios and Papineau all won the race this century on their seventh start).

The headline figures in the handicaps came from Saint Lawrence (114) in the Wokingham and Okita Soushi (also 114) in the Duke Of Edinburgh, both performances good enough to suggest they can score at minor pattern level.

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