Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

With a glut of Derby and Oaks trials at Chester and Lingfield as well as Chantilly and ParisLongchamp (if the Prix du Jockey-Club or the Prix de Diane is more your thing) there’s plenty to cover his week, including both the French versions of the 2000 and 1000 Guineas, so let’s crack on.

A very wet Chester kicked off as it always does with the Lily Agnes Stakes which curiously still retains a reputation far in excess of its relevance to even close-at-hand two-year-old races at Royal Ascot. Much like most previous winners, many of whom have found winning again difficult, it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise if its latest victor Ziggy’s Phoenix - 84 timefigure and strangely only the second winner from stall 1 since 2005 - is nothing other than nursery material, though no doubt she and the runner-up Ziggy’s Dream (comes out best on upgrades) will take their chances in the big juvenile sales races.

Still, along with the following sprint, the Lily Agnes (which attracted its biggest field since 2012) was an entertaining precursor to the main trials, the Cheshire Oaks and the Chester Vase which went to Savethelastdance (now a general 13/8 favourite for the Oaks) and Arrest (6/1 for the Derby) respectively.

As those prices might suggest, in what were some of the slowest conditions seen at Chester for a long time, Savethelastdance made the bigger splash of the pair. Her overall performance on the clock wasn’t exceptional for all a 101 timefigure is the best in the race since 2012, but a winning margin of pretty much bang on four and a half seconds, or 22 lengths, is pretty much unheard of in Group races and what’s more she achieved it by running the last furlong faster than the penultimate furlong and that furlong faster than the preceding one, while every other horse bar one according to the TPD sectionals was doing the complete opposite.

Remarkably, her final two-furlong time was over half a second faster than any of the other winners (all of whom except Arrest raced over shorter) on the card and her Timeform performance rating of 122 easily eclipses the 117 awarded to Enable after she won the same race in 2017. Let's see what the remaining Oaks trials throw up, but, should anyone need reminding, Enable went on to win the Oaks by five lengths.

Compared to the 25.67 credited to Savethelastdance for the final quarter-mile, Arrest covered the same distance (and a tiny bit more as he ended up near the stand rail) getting on for five seconds slower, albeit with both his rider Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore on runner-up Adelaide River focussed on holding their mounts together in the final furlong after a punishing gallop.

By my calculations, his overall time performance after incorporating a 12lb upgrade from three furlongs out isn’t much different to what Savethelastdance achieved. Arrest is clearly a very strong stayer. He was second in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud last year (when having Adelaide River the same distance behind as at Chester) on a day the rail was out 16 metres on very heavy ground, adding around 60metres to the official race distance and making the race a severe test of stamina.

Dubai Mile, the horse who beat him there, has looked a bit short of pace under more conventional conditions on the other two of his last three starts and Arrest might end up being more of a St Leger type.

Well back in third in the Chester Vase was Hadrianus, a horse who is notable not because of his accomplishments on the clock but because he is one of only two horses by Galileo to have run on the Flat in Britain or Ireland who have been foaled in June.

Which way his career goes now after two quick and demanding races on tough ground remains to be seen, but curiously enough the three-year-old maiden on Wednesday’s card went to another June foal, Amleto, who was foaled nearly two weeks later than any other progeny to have seen a racecourse by his sire Sea The Stars. That he could win the maiden in such promising fashion in a decent 86 timefigure makes him very much one to follow for the rest of this season given he’s based with whom I believe to be the best trainer in the country, William Haggas.

The ground for Chester’s Thursday card wasn’t as soft as it had been for the opening day and the card wasn’t a strong one in all honesty with the feature race, the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes, going the way of the veteran Hamish for the second year in succession. A 98 timefigure on the back of a length-and-a-quarter winning margin in a tactical affair is slightly better than either metric he achieved in 2022 and he looks set for another productive year.

Dee Stakes winner San Antonio can probably take the step up to Group company but I doubt he’s Group 1 or 2 material. A 105 timefigure is as high as I was prepared to go. For all the runner-up Alder emerges with a higher upgrade after being held up more towards the rear I can see his inability to keep a straight line, quite marked on this occasion, as a barrier to progress.

Last season’s 2000 Guineas flop Point Lonsdale made it two from two this season with victory in Friday’s feature, the Huxley Stakes. He made his supporters sweat for a long way as he was one of the first to be pushed along but he kept at it gamely and found plenty. A 114 timefigure is a career best and, being by Australia, a step up to a mile and a half as well as faster conditions, an interpretation of mine for the progeny of Australia, will suit him well.

Following a midweek deluge, Lingfield’s Derby and Oaks Trial card was moved to its all-weather surface. Returning timefigures at Lingfield is much easier there on polytrack than saturated turf and, though timefigures were indeed straightforward, there wasn’t much in all honesty to enthuse about.

How does the Lingfield form stack-up?

The Oaks Trial looked an ordinary event beforehand and the winner Eternal Hope isn’t even entered in the Epsom Classic. The runner-up Be Happy is entered but looks at least a couple of leagues below her stable-companion Savethelastdance. There was far more quality on show in the Derby Trial which went to Military Order in a 104 timefigure. He ended up running out a comfortable winner from a horse I mentioned here a few weeks who had posted some smart sectionals at Newmarket, Waipiro, after the latter had threatened to get his measure around the furlong pole. An upgrade of 5lb for Military Order brings his overall time rating up to 109 and the brother to the 2021 Derby winner Adayar looks like he could leave this form well behind when he gets a well-run mile and a half.

Over in France last Tuesday, Chantilly staged one of their best-known Derby trials, the Prix de Guiche which was won by subsequent Prix du Jockey-Club winners Vadeni in 2022 and Almanzor in 2016 as well as by subsequent Prix Jean Prat winner Intellogent in 2018.

Run three weeks later than it usually is, I was keen at a big price on Horizon Dore whose late-season 2022 Marseille listed win I felt had been overlooked and who had run the last 600m faster than the winner, Big Rock, in the Prix La Force at Longchamp on his reappearance. As things turned out, Big Rock confirmed the form from the Force in no uncertain terms, winning eased down by five lengths, the biggest margin since the race was switched to Chantilly from Longchamp in 2005, but the general 5/2 odds about him for the Jockey-Club look a bit skinny to me.

Not only is the Jockey-Club a heavily draw-influenced contest – note the efforts of Al Hakeem and Onesto last year – Big Rock seemed to me much more at home on the testing ground at Chantilly than he had under faster conditions in the Force and, for all it’s hard to argue with his winning fractions (he ran the first 1200m much the fastest as well as the last 600m, coming very close to running the last 200m fastest too despite being eased two lengths or so), I’ve no doubt Horizon Dore would have got much closer on faster ground. The Jockey-Club will be a much sterner test for Big Rock, not least if he’s drawn in a high double-figure stall.

Verdict on the French Classics

The Poule d’Essai des Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas, kicked off Sunday’s triple-Group 1 header in Paris and produced something of a shock result as one of the outsiders Marhaba Ya Sanafi ran down my fancy Isaac Shelby in the closing strides. Timeform don’t publish timefigures for Longchamp but they are available internally and a 113 for the winner (along with a 2lb upgrade) indicates a much-improved performance.

Isaac Shelby will probably run nearer his Greenham figure (117) another day. I had expected him to make the running from the plum draw next to the rail, but Sean Levey seemed disinclined to do so despite breaking well and the race being a few yards short of a mile, with the racing line being back on the inside for the first time since last autumn. He did hit the front soon after the cutaway, and clearly ran creditably, but he’d almost certainly have held on had he not wasted so much energy fighting his rider.

The Pouliches (French 1000) was run in a faster time and form-pick Blue Rose Cen had little trouble landing the odds in a provisional 115 timefigure. Strong at the finish and by Churchill out of a mare that won at a mile and a half, she’ll have no trouble with the Diane trip and will go there with better credentials than either the Saint-Alary winner Jannah Rose or runner-up Elusive Princess.

That said, the bare form shown so far by both those almost certainly underestimates their ability. Jannah Rose, who was heavily backed, was always travelling strongly in a steadily-run race (modest provisional timefigure) and did no more than enough to get the job done, looking like she’s got a lot more to give, while the runner-up, who I mentioned here a few columns back, was for the second start running seen to nothing like best advantage and looks like she could easily take a big step forward when things finally fall her way.

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