Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

The latest running of the Grand National prompted almost as many talking points as runners – at least ten too many according to much of the social media comment I read, with the run to the first fence also a cause for concern for the same crowd - but once the runners started to thin out and set out on their second circuit towards Becher’s I found the race an enthralling watch as always.

The pace wasn’t strong by any means, with Corach Rambler’s timefigure just 119 and the finish a fast one, with none finishing faster than the runner-up Vanillier who ran the final furlong 1.13 seconds - getting on for six lengths – faster than the winner according to Course Track.

How do Corach Rambler and Ahoy Senor compare?

It would have been very interesting to see what had transpired had both Vanillier and my fancy Gaillard du Mesnil not been so far back on the turn for home, but the result capped a great week for the Lucinda Russell team and it may well be that Corach Rambler lines up next year at Cheltenham not in the Ultima again but alongside his stable-companion Ahoy Senor in the Gold Cup.

There’s not much between them on the clock but it’s rare you see a horse still almost on the bridle jumping the last in the National and there’s a strong suspicion Corach Rambler, who once again idled badly on the run-in, is likely capable of considerately better form than he has already shown.

Four Grade Ones kicked off the opening day of the meeting at Aintree (the card also had a Grade Two bumper to end the card) on ground quicker than anticipated and even though one of them featured the outstanding hurdler Constitution Hill, the Alder Hey Aintree Bowl was undoubtedly the race of the day even after the late withdrawal for legal reasons of Gold Cup runner-up Bravemansgame.

The Bowl essentially pitched together two different form lines from Cheltenham, the Gold Cup which was ‘represented’ by Conflated, Ahoy Senor and A Plus Tard and the Ryanair in which Shishkin and Ga Law had taken part.

How close to his best was Shishkin?

In the event the Ryanair won out with Shishkin overhauling the front-running Ahoy Senor after the last and staying on strongly enough to make you wonder how he would have fared against Galopin Des Champs had he run in the Gold Cup instead.

A 153 timefigure is some way below what Shishkin is capable of (he’s twice run a timefigure higher than 170) but Ahoy Senor matched his best previous time efforts in a gallant defeat. Conflated was reported not to have been over his Gold Cup effort but at least A Plus Tard’s disappointing effort removed some of the guesswork as to how he would have fared had he not been badly hampered in the melee caused by Ahoy Senor’s fall at Prestbury Park.

His finishing effort was very tame under conditions which should have been ideal, and he looks a pale imitation, sadly, of the horse that sprinted clear from the last in the 2022 Gold Cup.

There didn’t seem the hunger before the Aintree Hurdle for Constitution Hill to ‘run a big figure’ that there had been before the Champion Hurdle and it seems realism has set in among racing public that, over hurdles at least, he won’t be asked to do any more than is necessary.

The battle was always only ever going to be for second place, even more so after he was gifted an easy eight-length lead, and a 130 timefigure, well below the 178 he ran in the 2022 Supreme, illustrates the extent to which the remainder were ridden more with a view to picking up some good place money (Sharjah ended up second) rather than winning the race.

His trainer Nicky Henderson afterwards mapped out a rather uninspiring campaign for him next year should he stay over hurdles, and there’s nothing around in that discipline who can touch him of course, but hopefully he’ll be set bolder targets than those.

Banbridge and Zenta took the other Grade Ones, the former getting the better of Sporting Life Arkle third Saint Roi in the opening Manifesto Novices’ Chase in a decent 150 timefigure (Turners winner Stage Star found disappointingly little and trailed home last) while the latter got the better of a head-bob with Bo Zenith at the end of a messy (timefigure just 108) four-year-old hurdle.

Where now for Gerri Colombe?

Friday began with a convincing win for Brown Advisory runner-up Gerri Colombe. He’d looked unlucky at Cheltenham, running the last half mile much faster than the winner The Real Whacker only from too far back, and the plentiful rain that fell overnight helped his chance no end.

A 155 timefigure is the third time in succession he’s run either a 155 or 156 and if he comes up short at the highest level next season his sound jumping and limitless stamina will ensure he would be an interesting contender in something like the Irish Grand National.

The other Grade One chase on the card, the Melling Chase, went to Pic D’Orhy who paid his Ascot conqueror Shishkin a hearty compliment with a ready win. A 159 timefigure is a career best, 3lb higher than he managed at Ascot, and isn’t far off the 163 he’s capable of running to on form.

The two Grade Ones over the smaller obstacles went to Inthepocket and Apple Away respectively. The former was the pick of the clock on his Supreme fourth, form that had already been boosted earlier in the day, and he didn’t have to quite reproduce that effort to see off Supreme ninth Strong Leader, who stayed on very strongly from the rear, in a 135 timefigure.

Apple Away took her form forward a couple of notches when a surprise winner of the Sefton Novices' Hurdle but a 137 timefigure is right up to scratch and suggests the form is very solid.

Jonbon kicked off proceedings on Grand National Day with a clear-cut win, sure to have won anyway had Calico jumped the last but building on his Arkle second all the same with a near-identical 160 timefigure.

Irish Point (131 timefigure) took the Mersey Novices' Hurdle with a convincing display back up at what looks his optimum trip, though Dark Raven would surely have been thereabouts had he sadly not suffered a fatal fall given he finished six lengths ahead of Irish Point when the pair had been third and fourth respectively behind Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Pride of place on the timefigure front went to Sire du Berlais, however. Stayers' Hurdle winner he might have been in a 156 timefigure, but that still wasn’t enough to see him start shorter than 8/1 up against several of the same rivals in the Liverpool Hurdle and he proved his Cheltenham win wasn’t a fluke with an even better performance that came in at 162 on the clock.

Not that his win looked likely for a long way, trading at huge odds in running after coming off the bridle early, but stamina and staying power got him out of jail at the end of a punishing race.

Irish action round-up

For all there were a couple of Listed races last week - Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes at Kempton and the Further Flight Stakes at Nottingham – the Flat season domestically continues to limp along unimaginatively as it always has between the Lincoln at Doncaster and the Craven meeting at Newmarket but there was some good action abroad at the weekend with the Curragh and ParisLongchamp both hosting nice cards.

Highlight on times (105 timefigure) from the two Group races at the Curragh was Goldana’s win in the Gladness Stakes over seven furlongs, though the former Portland winner Hurricane Ivor posted an even bigger figure (109) when landing the following handicap.

Goldana was something of a surprise winner, possibly because not too much was known about the strength of her form in Germany when trained by Peter Schiergen. Three times a winner there, including in a Listed event, Goldana hadn’t looked any better than useful but her new trainer Joseph O’Brien has a good record of improving similar types and her Curragh win was undoubtedly a career best. How relevant it will be to events over the next couple of months remains to be seen, however, as conditions at the Curragh were their slowest since 2016 and ‘very heavy’ rather than ‘heavy’ would have been a more apt going description.

The bog-like conditions were no hindrance to Point Lonsdale in the Alleged Stakes as he made his first appearance since last season’s 2000 Guineas a winning one. The son of Australia was always well placed in a race that was steadily run (winning time only marginally faster than the preceding ordinary handicap) and the form isn’t exceptional by any means, but connections will be satisfied and he might yet end up fulfilling the promise he showed as a two-year-old when winning four times.

Significant trials in France

Across in France, ParisLongchamp staged three Classic trials, the Prix de Fontainebleau and the Prix de la Grotte which are warm-ups for the French 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas respectively and the Prix Noailles which is a feeder into the French Derby.

Easily the most interesting horse on show was Blue Rose Cen in the Prix de la Grotte and last season’s leading French two-year-old filly (won the Prix Marcel Boussac by five lengths) made a good start to her season with a length-and-a-half defeat of provincial Listed winner Lindy.

Like the other Group races on the card, the Grotte was run at a steady pace and, under conditions which were faster than in the Boussac, Blue Rose Cen controlled the race from the front and had plenty in hand under what wasn’t much more than a hands-and-heels ride.

Blue Rose Cen ran the last 600m in 35.49 seconds according to the official sectionals, slower than American Flag managed in the Fontainebleau over the same trip in the preceding race despite a slower overall time as well, but I’d be wary of reading too much into that given she raced well within herself.

She still looks the one to beat in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, though it would be interesting to see how hard fourth-placed Prija (still engaged in the Pouliches), who was the only horse on the day to run below 35 seconds for the last 600m, would have pushed her had she not been ridden from so far back.

American Flag made it three wins from his last three starts when following up his Listed win in the Prix Omnium at Saint-Cloud last month. The winning margin wasn’t quite as large as it was then, but it might well have been had Christophe Soumillon not taken things easy after he’d quickened up well from the rear.

His 35.3 final 600m finishing split was easily the quickest in the race, having too much speed for a couple of rivals who look like they need further already, and though his form is on the up his Poulains claims are nowhere near as solid as Blue Rose Cen’s Pouliches claims.

It’s hard to know what to make of the Noailles form. Those horses that lined up were more about potential than proven merit but how much of the former was on show given there was next to nothing between any of the runners all the way up the home straight is open to question.

Flight Leader (by Frankel) only really pulled the race out of the bag in the last ten strides or so and, though a 35.97 final 600m given the sedate early speed was unexceptional (third-placed Fortune ran faster), he’s out of a smart mare who won four times at Listed level and looks ready for a step up to a mile and a half.

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