Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

Magical comebacks are not uncommon in the sporting world, though few can rival Rafael Nadal’s 2022 Australian Open triumph after coming back not only from a foot injury that had threatened to end his career but from two sets down in the final, so making him at the time the winning-most male in Grand Slams, but I think it’s fair to say the execution of Shishkin’s return was unexpected.

Pulled up in the 2022 Champion Chase, after which a rare bone condition was diagnosed, and then a distant and laboured third behind Edwardstone in the Betfair Tingle Creek on his reappearance, Shishkin didn’t even start favourite for the Ascot Chase despite the widespread assumption that the step up to two miles five furlongs would suit, that honour going to Fakir D’Oudairies who had won the race the previous year and had won his most recent start when taking advantage of Haut En Couleurs’ last fence mishap in the Horse Jockey Hotel Chase.

It was clear from a long way out that Shishkin was going to get the better of that particular battle, but the way he powered clear of Pic D’Orhy was deeply impressive and could have left no one in any doubt that the Supreme and Arkle winner had firmly re-established himself.

His 173 timefigure for that performance is the best recorded in Britain or Ireland over either fences or hurdles this season, bettering the 172 Bravemansgame posted in the King George, and pretty much comes in bang on 180 when the upgrade from three out in a well-run race is taken into account.

That’s pretty much with his previous best being 178 when he got the better of Energumene in an epic 2022 Clarence House Chase, and no doubt his win caused some of those who were thinking of rerouting to the Ryanair Chase after Allaho’s withdrawal to revert to their original plans.

The rest of the Ascot card was interesting enough without being overly enlightening. Oscar Elite won the other Graded race on the card, the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase, though the fact he had been beaten either a long way or pulled up in his last two starts over fences off marks of 139 and 137 yet can win a Graded race tells you all you need to know about the quality of the contest even before factoring an ordinary 134 timefigure.

Even so, that winning timefigure was faster than Cap Du Nord (129) posted in the Premier Handicap over the same distance later in the card when showing his best form for a couple of years.

Springwell Bay posted the best timefigure (128) of the three races over hurdles and looked much happier over two miles three here than he has so far at two miles, but arguably the most interesting of the three winners over the smaller obstacles was Thomas Mor in the staying hurdle.

One of six next-time-winners to have come from the Challow Hurdle, which hasn’t yet convinced me I should be taking a higher view now of Hermes Allen than I did at the time, given only the first two (runner-up You Wear It Well won the Jane Seymour Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown in the week in a satisfactory 127 timefigure) handled the very testing conditions that day, a far cry from those that Newbury have experienced since, Thomas Mor came home fastest of all the hurdle winners from both three out and two out and looks to have a fair amount of boot for a stayer.

A 119 timefigure gets upgraded to the mid 140s once sectionals are incorporated and he looks to have a fair bit of handicapping scope even after his new mark (133) is taken into consideration.

Over at Wincanton, the Grade 2 Jenningsbet Kingwell Hurdle isn’t the prestigious race it often used to be frequented by Champion Hurdlers and for the second year in succession attracted just four runners.

That said, the winner I Like To Move It is a likeable sort and connections are probably right to consider a Champion Hurdle bid given the likely shortage of runners there. A wide-margin win in this race is fairly unusual, certainly on ground this quick, and even though First Street didn’t wear the hood he’d worn in his previous nine races and Knappers Hill once again looked a little flattered by his Elite Hurdle win over course and distance in November, a 158 timefigure is confirmation this was a very smart and improved performance.

A good-moving horse who races exuberantly and whose jumping was good bar a blip at the first, a strong pace at the minimum trip on fast ground - his winning time of 3m 30.7 seconds is easily the fastest in the race this century – seem the key to I Like To Move It and given he conceded 1lb to State Man in last year’s County Hurdle and was the only five-year-old other than the winner to start a single-figure price, there’s an argument in there for saying that says he won’t be out of place.

The two Graded hurdles at Haydock, both over an extended three miles, went to Wakool and Makin’yourmindup respectively.

The contest Wakool won, the Betfred Rendlesham Hurdle, was a weak affair by Grade 2 standards and featured another Harry Skelton ‘rush of blood’ moment when he fired Ashtown Lad to the front too quickly too soon, leaving Wakool to pick up the pieces in a disappointing 117 timefigure. The Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices’ Hurdle was more competitive event and more strongly run, but a 131 timefigure suggests the winner still has a fair bit to find with the leading novices.

Earlier in the week in Ireland, Clonmel had hosted an informative-looking Grade 3 novice hurdle sponsored by Surehaul Mercedes-Benz, albeit a far less interesting one than it had promised to be after the very promising (and my idea of the Albert Bartlett winner should he run) Corbetts Cross had been pulled out, presumably on account of the very soft ground.

That seemingly left the way clear for Hiddenvalley Lake to cement his position his position at the top of the Albert Bartlett market with just four rivals to beat in a race his trainer Henry de Bromhead has farmed in recent years, but as things turned out he couldn’t give 6lb to his stable-companion Monty’s Star who lined up a maiden having finished second at Navan on his only start over hurdles.

If you had backed Hiddenvalley Lake for the Albert Bartlett, I think you’d have to be very disappointed with this run. Despite setting a steady pace – the winning timefigure for Monty’s Star was just 47, a mile off the 137 performance rating Timeform awarded him – the sectionals from two out and the last still compared unfavourably with some of the other ordinary races over hurdles in what seemed to me to be a slow-motion plod.

It’s possible the ground was too slow for Hiddenvalley Lake and possible too that he was asked to do too much too soon between three out and two out, but I doubt he’s a top novice, at least over hurdles.

Monty’s Star looks an interesting long-term prospect, however. De Bromhead has won this race in recent years with good horses like Monalee and Chris’s Dream, as well as sending out Minella Indo to be second to Allaho, and your eye couldn’t help being drawn as the runners turned for home to how much bigger Monty’s Star is than Hiddenvalley Lake. If ever a horse already looks in need of a fence it’s him and he already looks a top staying prospect over fences no matter how he fares if brought over for the Albert Bartlett.

There was an interesting card at Gowran on Saturday with the two Grade 2 events, one over hurdles and one over fences.

The one over the smaller obstacles was the Red Mills Trial Hurdle which looked far from a penalty kick for Sharjah despite his prohibitive odds on his first start outside Grade 1 company for four years, and he once again found his hurdling letting him down allowing Fil Dor (back over timber after an unconvincing display in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival) to grab the prize by half a length.

On paper this looks smart form but I’m not sure it’s all as it seems when his overall time and fractions are bundled together. Fil Dor dictated the gallop yet despite covering the two miles five seconds slower than the opening juvenile maiden winner Sinbad Le Marin who was carrying just 3lb less, he still ran the final circuit no quicker on his way to an ordinary 99 timefigure and even managed to come home from the final hurdle half a second slower.

In contrast, the Red Mills Chase looked an informative contest. Willie Mullins supplied three of the four runners including the odds-on favourite Haut En Couleurs, bidding to make amends for an unlucky last fence spill at Thurles last time, but his lack of tactical pace was exposed by his stable-companion Janidil who proved far too speedy over the final three fences.

Second in the Ryanair last year, albeit a long way behind Allaho, there were a few on social media over the weekend who seemed to think that this year’s Ryanair winner had been seen at Gowran and not Ascot, but stylish though this success was – his took half a second (over two lengths) out of Haut En Couleurs between three out and two out and even more between the final two fences – it seemed more a reflection on Haut En Couleurs shortcomings at the trip than anything else.

Capodanno, who was conceding 9lb all round, made a satisfactory return over a trip short of his best on ground slower than he prefers, not least given the pace he set resulted only in a lowly 118 timefigure for the winner, but this form is a long way off what Shishkin achieved.

Punchestown staged a relatively low-key Sunday card by their usual standards with the feature event, the Apple’s Jade Mares Novice Hurdle, going to Hauturiere after the favourite Harmonya Maker had unseated her rider at the second hurdle.

The winner, who’d won a novice hurdle at Fairyhouse the time before by 15 lengths, is on the up and reversed Limerick Christmas form with Shecouldbeanything to the tune of five lengths on top of an 8lb weight turnaround, but a sectional from three out and two out slower than the 108-rated Verdant Place managed in the three-mile handicap an hour later doesn’t enthuse me greatly even if her 127 timefigure was just about standard for the level.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.