Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

Last week might have been the ‘calme avant la tempete’ in France where nothing of any significance took place ahead of the upcoming Arc weekend fireworks, but there were still ten Group races in Britain and Ireland, some of which I’ll look at here, as well as a couple of cracking handicaps.

The juvenile highlights of the week at Newmarket, on paper at least, were the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes and the Cheveley Park Stakes on a Saturday card that also hosted the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes (all sponsored by Juddmonte Farms) as well as the eponymous race after which the meeting takes its name.

For no other reason than the Cheveley Park was run in a faster time than the Middle Park – no surprise there, it’s the eighth time this century that the fillies have covered the six furlongs faster – I’ll start with Lezoo whose 1.11.84 finishing time has been bettered by 12 fillies since 2000 but whose 111 timefigure comes in a more respectable ninth best in the same period.

Lezoo had some of the best form credentials coming into the race, but despite neither Lowther winner Swingalong nor Flying Childers winner Trillium - giving their running she still had to take quite a step forward to get the better of Meditate who turned in her own best effort on the clock (109) back in trip despite having had a tough race in the Moyglare Stud Stakes two week previously.

Despite the faster time, the Cheveley Park was less ‘frenetically-run’ than the Middle Park, with Timeform recording Lezoo going through halfway in 37.37 seconds as opposed to 36.24 for Blackbeard, or over six lengths in everyday language, though the Course Track sectionals have recorded - questionably - an even bigger differential with Lezoo supposedly 1.59 seconds slower (roughly nine lengths) to the same point.

Lezoo comes out with a 4lb upgrade to her timefigure, taking her overall time rating to 115, but being a smallish filly lacking scope, whether she improves much more remains to be seen. Indeed, if there was a Guineas filly on show at meeting (Lezoo isn’t being considered for the race, reportedly) it was Commissioning in the Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Rockfel Stakes the day before.

Commissioning had made a sparkling debut at the July course earlier in the summer in a race her stable had won previously with subsequent Coronation Stakes winner Fallen For You and she once again displayed an impressive turn of foot in the Rockfel to score in a 112 timefigure.

Only 2014 winner Lucifer has bettered that figure this century and she went on to finish second in the Guineas the following spring, so the omens are good for the daughter of Kingman, though Tahiyra who beat Meditate in such good style in the Moyglare, still remains favourite for the 1000.

How good is Blackbeard?

I must admit, I’m not entirely sure what to make of Blackbeard. In a normal year, it shouldn’t be too difficult to land the merit of the winner of the Robert-Papin, Morny and Middle Park on the head of a pin, if not exactly then almost, but Blackbeard is different in the respect that he has come up against the same small set of horses in his last three races and the only rival thought likely to have given him a race in the Middle Park, the Gimcrack runner-up Marshman, didn’t give his running after pulling far too hard despite the good pace.

There’s nothing wrong whatsoever with the Gimcrack form – third-placed Cold Case and sixth-placed Galleron (the latter in the revived Goffs Millions at the Curragh on Saturday) have both given it a boost since - but an on-song Marshman would have given a better line to Blackbeard than either his stable-companion The Antarctic or Persian Force who Blackbeard has beaten each time they've met.

The Middle Park was a different race tactically from the more steadily-run Morny and is almost certainly the more reliable guide of the two to the respective merits of the trio, for all that Persian Force can be upgraded a bit relative to the first two given the early fractions he set, but given the winning timefigure was a lowly 108 with no upgrade I’d be wary from a timing perspective of thinking Blackbeard is the real deal just yet. He’s got a lot to find on the clock with his stable-companion Little Big Bear yet, that’s for sure.

Any substance to the Royal Lodge?

The Royal Lodge looked an insignificant race in the wider scheme of things. Won by The Foxes in a 32 timefigure with a big upgrade, it attracted the smallest field this century and was a sham of a race that is supposedly a test of a staying juvenile (the race was won by Frankel in 2010 a 110 timefigure by 10 lengths when the race was held at Ascot).

Whether The Foxes is a legitimate Classic contender remains to be seen but Flying Honours back in third had his bubble burst, as did to a lesser degree by association in my eyes the horse he beat at Salisbury, Cloudbuster, who’d been bigged up in some quarters for winning a four-runner sprint for home from the front at Newbury the previous week.

The Tattersalls Stakes (Somerville) went to Nostrum in a 93 timefigure, along with a 20lb upgrade giving him an overall time performance of 113. I thought he handled the undulations far better than the runner-up Holloway Boy, but he impressed me come the line and I’ll be following him with interest next year. Victory Dance had little substance to his form and didn’t deserve to start favourite.

What did time say about Waterville?

Timefigures were very hard to settle upon at the Curragh over the weekend, particularly on Saturday when official times didn’t marry up with hand or video times, but Waterville’s’ win in the Irish Cesarewitch is worth dwelling on, not least as Aidan O’Brien’s bizarre description of the progressive winner as ‘too shy’ put me in mind of awful early 80s band Kajagoogoo.

Apologies to readers who aren’t familiar with what Wikipedia wrongly describe as a ‘new wave band’ (they were unashamedly a boy band) or their dreadful lyrics but with Aidan’s description in mind as a backer of both Echoes In Rain and Lot Of Joy I could easily have been imploring Rachael Blackmore to ‘hey girl move a little closer’ as the race unfolded before telling myself Danny Tudhope couldn’t have been further from going ‘eye to eye’ with those on his inside.

I’m not a great fan of Trackus distance covered data as a rule because distance (or momentum) lost is not equal at all points of a race, but it would have been interesting to know just how much ground Lot Of Joy covered relative to Waterville (100 timefigure and 12lb upgrade) and Echoes In Rain.

The winner has been cut understandably for the Cesarewitch, but the race is a tough one for three-year-olds and Lot Of Joy looks to me to have a fair bit more to come.

How accurate are winning times?

Last week I was passed an email from a reader who was ‘surprised’ to see that I had argued in my most recent article that the official time for Dusky North in the Ayr Silver Cup was incorrect before going on to ask why I was so certain it was wrong (it is still showing erroneously on the BHA website as 1.09.89, for what it’s worth, while trade paper Racing Post still hasn’t twigged either) before going on to question whether timefigure analysis might be best given up on altogether if many other official times are incorrect.

Unfortunately, I have some bad news for the reader in question – there are tens, if not hundreds, of official timing errors every year that go undetected and uncorrected elsewhere, and an uncomfortable number too that creep into the returned sectionals available on the RTV and ATR websites.

However, to put the reader’s mind at rest, I’ll explain quickly how Timeform validate official times. Timeform have a body of reporters, me included when required, whose job it is to report and analyse on every race in Britain and Ireland, part of which requires taking a hand time for the race winner as well as a sectional time for the race leader and, if different, the race winner.

Those hand times are then compared to the official times to identify potential errors in official times. The generally accepted difference - a reaction time, if you like - between a hand time and an electronic finishing time is somewhere around 0.30-0.40 seconds – so an electronic finishing time of 1.13.12 seconds, for example, ought to be hand timed somewhere between 1.12.72 and 1.12.82.

Not all reporters have the same reaction time, however, which can in part depend upon the timing equipment and feed used, so each individual reporter has their own reaction time (calculated from years of historical reaction-time data) applied to their hand time and any hand time outside those acceptable parameters is double checked by downloading the race in question into a video software editing facility and rechecking the official time from there.

This is the process whereby the returned time for the Ayr Silver Cup was found to be incorrect, as was confirmed by a couple of independent accounts I follow on social media who have a keen interest in accurate timing data.

This daily checking process often proceeds quite smoothly but took me getting on for three hours yesterday morning (Monday) after it became clear that several official times at the Curragh on Saturday were wildly at odds with what would have been expected compared to video analysis, even after taking into account video times aren’t always easy to return exactly given the different design of the starting stalls in Ireland as well as the infuriating use of side-on and not head-on angles at the stalls.

The reader can rest assured that every effort is taken to root out rogue official times, and the validating process in operation at Timeform is as thorough as it can possibly be.

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