Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

Where to start? Arc weekend aside, the weekend just gone is, for me anyway, easily the most interesting of the year on the Flat. 19 pattern races across two days with something to suit every taste from the five-furlong Flying Five at the Curragh to the near 18-furlong Doncaster Cup and enough clues and pointers within them to fill your notebooks for the Arc meeting and beyond.

The domestic highlight this weekend was, of course, the delayed Cazoo St Leger. Gone are the days when the race was a realistic target for any horse of either sex good enough to have won both the first two Classics but it’s still a fascinating race in its own right.

The latest renewal might have lacked a real top-quality performer beforehand but might have unearthed one in Eldar Eldarov who, Haskoy aside, a filly whose closing York sectionals in the Galtres Stakes suggested she was way better than that bare result might suggest, looked the most interesting runner beforehand.

I say that because he had needed all of the short Ascot straight to wear down the enterprisingly-ridden Zechariah in the Queen’s Vase, form that doesn’t look too shabby in view of what the latter achieved subsequently with similar tactics employed in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury. He then found himself in another short-straight steadily-run contest back in trip in the Grand Prix de Paris, form that was made to look even better after the winner Onesto beat all bar Luxembourg in the Irish Champion Stakes on Saturday and the runner-up Simca Mille won the Prix Niel.

A winning timefigure of 112 on ground that was slower than on the first two days of the meeting (when it was riding a fair bit faster on times than the official going description despite what the television pundits seemed to think) is towards the lower end of St Leger winning timefigures this century, but Eldar Eldarov would have won more convincingly had he not been knocked off his stride when starting to hit top gear over two furlongs out.

It was noticeable beforehand from the television pictures just how much better he was taking the preliminaries than the favourite New London, who was having the sweat towelled off him, or any of the others and he looked so laid back behind the stalls that he’s surely the perfect model going forward for the Cup races next year.

Haskoy might have found the race coming a bit quick after the Galtres, but at least she ran well which is more than can be said for Hoo Ya Mal whose mind-boggling seven-figure purchase price after the Derby increasingly looks ill-judged.

Don't get carried away by Champagne form

There were four other Pattern races at Doncaster on Sunday, all of which had Group Two status. The opening Coral Champagne Stakes attracted only three runners (the smallest turnout this century, following just four last year) and saw something of an upset with the odds-on Solario winner Silver Knott having his bubble burst at the hands of Acomb winner Chaldean who controlled the race from the front in an ordinary 99 timefigure, upgraded to a more respectable but still lowly 106 once sectional upgrades are applied. I doubt it’s strong form.

Molecomb winner Trillium narrowly got the better of Nunthorpe runner-up The Platinum Queen in the Flying Childers, the pair well clear in a well-up-to-scratch 111 timefigure. Coltrane, a distant second to Quickthorn in the Lonsdale when last seen, took full advantage of a below-par Trueshan in the steadily-run Coral Doncaster Cup in a 57 timefigure, leaving the performance of the day on the clock to Kinross in the Cazoo Park Stakes.

Three non-runners might have helped his cause, but even so a 120 timefigure under a penalty against some smart opponents was a career best on the clock and he looks the one to beat in the upcoming Prix de la Foret, a race he would have finished second in last season had he not been last of the 15 runners turning for home.

There were three other Group races staged at Doncaster during the week with Mimikyu returning the best timefigure (106) among them in the ‘fillies Leger’, the Park Hill Stakes. Bounce The Blues posted a 95 in the Sceptre Stakes, while Polly Pott continued her progress for soon to be retired trainer Harry Dunlop with a 92 in the May Hill.

How good is Luxembourg?

Luxembourg was the star of the opening day of Irish Champions weekend at Leopardstown, though exactly what time he recorded is unclear with all official times on the day being at odds to varying degrees with those observed from video software analysis from which all timefigures returned by Timeform have been calculated.

Vadeni didn’t get the run his rider desired against the far rail, prompting some observers to call him unlucky, but it looked to me as if Christophe Soumillon was out-ridden by his compatriot Stephane Pasquier on Onesto. Regular readers of this column will be well aware of the high regard I’ve had for Onesto since the Prix du Jockey-Club where he ran a faster last 600m than Vadeni but had no chance from his very wide draw. Vadeni might yet turn out to be a better horse than Onesto, but I can’t envisage a situation where the Eclipse winner would get the better of Luxembourg.

I wrote after his Royal Whip comeback win that Luxembourg didn’t look to do a tap once he hit the front, and he has to be on anyone’s shortlist for the Arc, where he might bump into Onesto again, over a trip that promises to be within his reach. A 123 timefigure is a career best by some way, and I don’t think there’s much doubt now he was the best long-term prospect in the 2000 Guineas.

The other Group One contest on the card, the Matron Stakes, went to last year’s runner-up Pearls Galore in a solid 112 timefigure. She contested the Prix de la Foret after the Matron last year, finishing second, but she had a much better position through the race than Kinross who ran the last 600m almost a second faster according to the tracking data.

Auguste Rodin won the Champions Juvenile Stakes in a decent 107 timefigure (111 after upgrades) while the other two Group races on the card, the Paddy Power Stakes and the Boomerang Mile went to Irish 2000 Guineas fifth Duke De Sessa and Celebration Mile winner Jadoomi in timefigures of 94 and 96 respectively, the latter the beneficiary of an uncontested lead.

The Curragh played host to four Group One contests on the second day of Irish Champions weekend on testing ground. The first of those was the Flying Five which saw Highfield Princess land her third top-level contest in just over a month with a performance almost as good as she put up in the Nunthorpe on form if not on the clock (timefigure just 100).

Whether she deserves to be a short-priced favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint on the back of this I’m not so sure as the early speed required to dominate sprints in the States is on an entirely different level to that needed in Europe and whether she could live with Golden Pal early remains to be seen. All the remaining Group 1 contests returned good timefigures.

Tahiyra worthy Guineas favourite

The Moyglare Stud Stakes was won in mightily impressive fashion by Tahiyra in 110. An impressive winner at Galway on her debut in July, Dermot Weld’s filly travelled very strongly throughout and couldn’t have been more impressive in drawing clear quickly from the unbeaten Meditate and was unsurprisingly made favourite for next year’s 1000 Guineas (the third horse Eternal Silence was an eyecatcher on looks back and ran really well considering she was stepping back in trip).

The National Stakes went to Al Riffa in a 111 timefigure. He wasn’t as visually impressive as Tahiyra, but like her was stepping up from a maiden win to defeat rivals who had already been tried at a higher level and he’s entitled to go on progressing with a mile sure to be within his grasp given his dam is a sister to Luca Cumani’s Gold Cup runner-up Mizzou.

This year’s Gold Cup winner Kyprios took the final Group One, the Comer Group International Irish St Leger, in a career-best 118 timefigure, while the sole Group Two on the card, the Blandford Stakes, went to the Prix Saint-Alary winner Above The Curve in a lowly 83 timefigure that probably isn’t the most reliable bit of form given the improvement the horse in third appeared to show.

Parisienne one to note for Arc weekend

Highlight of the five Group races at ParisLongchamp on Sunday was the Group 1 Prix Vermeille which went the way of Sweet Lady under a more positive ride than the one she had received when last seen on much firmer ground in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. She has entries in both the Arc and the Prix de Royallieu, but I doubt given a fairly-run race she’d confirm form with third-placed La Parisienne should the pair meet again in the former.

La Parisienne, who also has an entry in the Prix de l’Opera, ran the fastest last 600m and fastest last 200m according to the tracking data and that despite being held up in her run as she looked for room on the rail. She’d previously come home fastest of all when edged out by subsequent Nassau winner Nashwa in the Prix de Diane under a similar ride, and if there was one horse to take from the meeting with Arc weekend in mind it was her.

The aforementioned Prix Niel was the most interesting of the other races, as second to Simca Mille was Lassaut, a horse I flagged up in this column a couple of weeks ago as one to watch but there didn’t appear to be any excuse for him for all he ran the last 600m fastest of all.

The most intriguing runner in the race, the Japanese Derby winner Do Deuce, ran a tired final 200m on his first run for four months but not after running the fastest third-last 200m and marginally the second-fastest penultimate 200m and he might well step up quite a bit on this run next time.

Iresine was the rightful winner of the Prix Foy but isn’t qualified for the Arc being a gelding, while the rail was the place to be in the Prix du Petit Couvert and isn’t form I’d be placing much faith in. Beaten Nunthorpe favourite Royal Aclaim can have her effort upgraded slightly out wide, but she’s not the prospect she looked earlier in the season and she didn’t impress me with her head carriage either.

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