Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

There were big performances on both sides of the Atlantic this weekend with Flightline earning a Timeform rating of 143 after winning the Pacific Classic by almost 20 lengths, while the highlight on the domestic front was Minzaal’s win for a resurgent Owen Burrows in the Betfair Sprint Cup.

By his own admission, Burrows’ training career was hanging in the balance earlier this campaign after a couple of ‘winner-light’ years. Even so, a strike rate around 18% in that time would be enough to satisfy most trainers, but he has taken his win ratio to a new level this term (30% currently) and Minzaal’s victory was the second in Group One company in 2022 for the trainer following Hukum’s win in the Coronation Cup.

Hukum’s wide-margin win wasn’t backed up wholly by the clock, but that accusation can’t be levelled at Minzaal whose 125 timefigure is the joint-best in the race this century alongside Harry Angel in 2017 and is the fifth -astest timefigure recorded this season after Baaeed’s 135 in the Juddmonte, Nature Strip’s 129 in the King’s Stand and Baaeed and Pyledriver’s 126 in the Queen Anne and King George respectively.

Confusion over winning time

The time originally attributed to Minzaal on the BHA site was incorrect and wasn’t a course record as was widely reported - that achievement still belongs to Harry Angel courtesy of his win in the 2017 Sandy Lane. There was a timing malfunction at the start of several straight course races at the Lancashire venue last week, and the time Timeform used - for now, at least - in the computation of Minzaal’s timefigure was not the 1.08.75 that later appeared in the Racing Post but 1.09.02 which was taken from video software analysis (the same methodology arrived at a winning time of 57.62 seconds for Look Out Louis and not the 57.30 that is showing on the BHA website) though that time will be subject to further scrutiny over the coming days given reports of a small time lag originating from the video source.

Minzaal’s victory was a triumph for consistency as he had finished in front of Rohaan on all three occasions the pair had met previously this season. This column had been keen on the chances of Rohaan finally reversing the places after his excellent effort and strongest last 600m finish in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville in the last meeting before Haydock, but that was in expectation of softer ground and, well though he ran to be denied second place by only a short head after being set a lot to do, he couldn’t live with Minzaal once that horse made the race his entering the final furlong.

Highfield Princess still has the edge of Minzaal on form this season if not the clock, having beaten him on both occasions the pair have clashed, but at risk of being charged with following a horse off a cliff - of which I am probably guilty - Rohaan has to be of interest from a place perspective in the Champions Sprint at Ascot where he goes so well and the stiff finish will play to his strengths, especially if we get some rain.

Power fails to convince

Whatever one makes of the ‘controversial’ view touted last week by Maddy Playle in the Racing Post that Aidan O’Brien’s current crop of juveniles are not up to scratch, I doubt that Mr Ballydoyle will have lost any sleep over Naval Power’s win in the listed Ascendant Stakes at Haydock on Saturday that saw his QIPCO 2000 Guineas odds trimmed to 8/1 in places.

Let’s not beat about the bush - Naval Power easily brought the best form to the table in the Ascendant having won a similar contest at Ascot on his previous start by six-and-a-half lengths in a smart 109 timefigure, so was entitled to win with some ease. That effort by itself was enough for Timeform to have the penalised Naval Power 12lb clear at Haydock, but for all he had to wait for a gap before being asked to go and win his race he seemed to me short of that instant burst of speed (overall timefigure 79, sectional upgrade 22lb) to be pencilling him in as a budding Guineas winner.

That may have been something to do with the lightning fast conditions, which saw 34 non-runners on the card, all bar four of which were because of ‘unsuitable ground’, but Charlie Appleby in his post-race comments was keen to reference the part the horse’s stamina played in his win when, as I saw it, the race tested speed above all else.

I’d have his stable-companion Noble Style, who already has a 116 timefigure in his back pocket in a deep renewal of the Gimcrack and is the same price as Naval Power, as a bigger danger to current favourite Little Big Bear. Naval Power, incidentally, didn’t even post the biggest sectional upgrade in the Ascendant – that honour went to the strong-finishing and still progressive Captain Winters despite looking (to me) slightly uncomfortable on the ground. The maiden he won at Thirsk has worked out extremely well, and the fourth horse that day, Reidh, whose sectional upgrade was bigger than Captain Winters' and who caught the eye under a considerate ride on his debut, is well worth putting in your notebooks if he isn’t in there already.

Magic looks ready for big autumn prize

Captain Winters' stablemate Triple Time won the Ascendant in 2021 and the son of Frankel made his belated 2022 reappearance in the Group 3 Superior Mile. The winning time was over two-and-a-half seconds faster than the Ascendant, for all the final three-furlong sectional was almost a second slower as measured by Timeform, but that only translates into a 95 timefigure upgraded to 97 after sectionals are added on. A pleasing comeback in a very weak Group Three whose whole fell short of the sum of its parts would be my take on things.

The best performance from a ratings perspective at Kempton came in its feature event, the Group 3 Unibet September Stakes, where Mostahdaf ran a 122 Timeform performance rating to overturn the odds-on favourite Dubai Honour, but a 76 timefigure and a 14lb upgrade isn’t much to write home about and he still hasn’t run higher than 112 on the clock.

Of much more interest in the short term, and maybe longer term as well, is Mischief Magic who won the Sirenia Stakes in a 96 timefigure. Starting prices of 40/1, 33/1 and 25/1 for the trio that followed him home might suggest the form has a suspect look to it but the winner, who won a large-field maiden at Goodwood before following up under a penalty in a novice at Newmarket, did well to the make up the ground he did having been dropped in from his outside stall and a 11lb upgrade (6lb higher than anything else in the race) suggests that he’s not one to take lightly in Group events this autumn.

ParisLongchamp’s highlight on Sunday, the Prix du Moulin, was marred by the sad death of Coroebus.

Dreamloper was the rightful winner on the clock, running the fastest last 600m as well as the fastest last 200m according to the McLloyd tracking data, though the pair that chased him home both had wider trips in a well-run race, notably The Revenant who hit the highest top speed of all the runners.

It was Dreamloper’s second Group One win of the year following her success in the Prix d’Ispahan here in May, though defeats in the interim in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh and the Nassau at Goodwood, longer trips notwithstanding, make it hard not to conclude this was a run-of-the-mill Group Two masquerading as a very weak Group One with The Revenant using the race as a warm up for Arc weekend and Order Of Australia looking increasingly distant from the horse that won the Minstrel Stakes earlier in the year.

West Wind Blows for the Arc? Not for me

There were four other Group races on the Sunday card including the Prix du Prince d’Orange which went to a horse, West Wind Blows, who is now being talked about by those who blamed his defeats at Epsom and Goodwood on the undulating tracks as a dark horse for the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He ran the last 600m and last 200m in times not dissimilar to those posted by Dreamloper and is clearly very useful, but he was found a good spot here and I couldn’t have him at any price for the Arc.

Unfortunately, detailed timing information on two of the other three pattern races weren’t available on France Galop as the timing gremlins made their way across the Channel, but the La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte (which may well be back at its home venue next year if reports out of France last week are to be believed) developed into a sprint finish and saw Monty rewarded for being better placed than Riocorvo who followed him home.

As I hinted might happen last week, Mostly Cloudy is bound for Australia after being let go at the Tattersalls August Sales. Selling what is easily your best horse halfway through your first season as a trainer is an extremely bold call, not least when that horse would have been a leading contender for all the richly endowed staying handicaps next year such as the Northumberland Plate, Ebor, Cesarewitch and maybe even the Melbourne Cup. Hopefully, it will be a decision that won’t backfire.

Bold Beckett move can pay off

Finally, if there is one horse I am looking forward to seeing this week it is Haskoy.

I reported on Ralph Beckett’s filly for Timeform when, on debut, she made mincemeat of the useful subsequent winner Jahoori at Wolverhampton in August, running the last furlong (according to TPD sectionals) in a finishing speed of 109.2% when the best any of her rivals could manage was 104.1%.

Her subsequent victory in the listed Galtres Stakes at York was achieved in similar fashion with her final furlong Course Track sectional far quicker than any of her rivals, and I doubt there is a three-year-old filly in training as good as she is over a mile-and-a half or more. She’ll relish a long straight and a mile-and-three-quarters, and her presence will enliven the Cazoo St Leger, for which she has been supplemented, no end. 9/1 looks a very generous price.

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