Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

When the votes are cast at the end-of-season awards for the poorest Saturday’s racing of the year the one just gone, in which the feature event at Ripon, the Great St Wilfrid Handicap, attracted so few runners that the consolation race had to be abandoned and the novelty grey race at Newmarket attracted a field of five and the finish was fought out by two horses who were 0-17 between them, must be long odds-on to be crowned the winner.

In and amongst all the gloom, it was fitting I suppose that the best winning timefigure (114) of the week came in the main pattern event of the day, the Group 2 BetVictor Hungerford Stakes at Newbury as Jumby took full advantage of Chindit, Pogo and Tiber Flow seemingly running below form to gain his first Group success.

I say seemingly because the field split into two groups and the first four all raced in the cluster nearer the stand rail. Track position has been an increasingly important factor and sometimes the overwhelmingly deciding factor in interpreting race results lately as racecourses have smothered their tracks with water, leading to inconsistent going, as wins for Marbuzet at Ripon on Saturday and Natchez Trace at Southwell on Sunday after racing on the worst of the ground in their respective races the time before signify.

That said, Jumby’s effort is given substance by the placed horses, both of whom have decent form in Group races this year, and his overall profile is a progressive one so I’m happy to credit him with an improved performance for now. The other Group race on the card, the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, which was contested on the other side of the track, went to Zechariah in a timefigure of 93.

Able to dictate under Tom Marquand, the heavily-backed Zechariah unsurprisingly found plenty when asked, seemingly improving on his Queen’s Vase form where he was just touched off by Eldar Eldarov. The St Leger distance won’t hold any fears for him but to my eye he still looks a minor player in that race.

Over at the Curragh Luxembourg made his long-awaited comeback in the Group 3 Fitzdares Royal Whip Stakes. Given that he held a big advantage on form, the one-time Derby favourite was on the face of things none too impressive in a steadily-run race (82 timefigure) scraping home in a tight finish from the five-year-old mare Insinuendo, who was returning from a longer absence than the winner and emerges from the race with a 2lb bigger sectional upgrade.

Those might be the sectional facts, but Luxembourg didn’t look to do a tap once he hit the front and remains a colt whose best days are still ahead of him, for all the 2000 Guineas form doesn’t looks as strong now as it did back in May.

Luckily there was some decent action in France on Sunday and having missed the race live I was – foolishly perhaps - lulled in by the ‘She’s Back! Inspiral sparkles in the Prix Jacques le Marois!’ headline that accompanied the video recording of the race on the At The Races You Tube channel.

What I saw instead was more underwhelming than sparkling as she dug deep to get the better of Light Infantry and the unbeaten Erevann, both progressive though hardly top-class colts, with Coroebus back in fifth and Prosperous Voyage, the horse that had beaten her in the Falmouth, one place behind in sixth.

Insprial’s winning time of 1.34.07 on ground that was verging on good to firm was the fastest for the race since Moonlight Cloud in 2013. The sectionals confirm that she was the rightful winner, having run the last 600m fastest of all, but I was left wondering whether her properly sparkling Ascot reappearance had left its mark given she looked about 7lb off her peak.

For those unaware, there is plenty of additional information within the tracking data published on France Galop which is all free to access. Erevann hit the highest top speed in the race, for example, while Coroebus ran the fastest individual furlong, though that in itself doesn’t explain his tame finish.

The Jacques le Marois was one of three Group races on the card but the most impressive finish of the day came from Lassaut in the Listed Prix Nureyev over a mile and a quarter. He’s a very interesting and underrated three-year-old who is well worth keeping an eye on this autumn. Fifth in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains behind Modern Games when he ran the fastest last 600m, Lassaut missed the break badly in the Prix du Jockey Club last time but ended up running the last 600m joint third fastest of all along with Vadeni and only marginally slower than the subsequent Grand Prix de Paris winner Onesto.

His last 600m at Deauville was easily the quickest on the day and was the only one to dip under 34 seconds as he came from last to first to win going away. Gordon Stakes fourth Jack Darcy back in second place gives the form a solid look, and being by Almanzor out of a Sinndar mare, there’s every chance that Lassaut will stay, and probably improve, at a mile and a half. He holds an entry in the Arc.

There is more good-quality racing coming up at Deauville this week and I will be there on Sunday to watch the Prix Morny, so there won’t be a Watch And Learn column next week. Belbek is the highest rated home-trained horse officially, but he’s looked a million miles from a Group 1 horse in his last two races and given the race has gone to one of the home contingent only once since 2011 the prize will probably go abroad again.

This column was keen on the chances of Perfect Power last year and the Richmond Stakes might yet be the pointer again this time around if Little Big Bear misses the race as expected with Royal Scotsman representing the form, though he of course was readily put in his place on debut by Noble Style and Walbank who are still entered at the time of writing.

Sky Bet Ebor Festival preview

Thankfully after last weekend, the domestic event this week is the Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York which kicks off on Wednesday with the Group 1 Juddmonte International in which Baaeed attempts to extend his winning sequence to ten.

He will be sent off odds again, as he has been on all his starts this year, and I suspect he’ll step up to a mile and a quarter successfully as the horse he keeps getting compared to, Frankel, managed spectacularly in the same race ten years previously. The 2021 winner Mishriff will be his most dangerous opponent if he repeats that form which saw him romp home by six lengths in a 123 timefigure, but though Baaeed hasn’t needed to run many fast times in his life his 128 in the Queen Anne sets the standard.

Elsewhere on the opening day, the most interesting horse from a timefigure perspective is Deauville Legend in the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur. He doesn’t seem to have got the credit he deserves and having stepped up successfully from handicap company to Group company in the Bahrain Trophy, proved that run was no fluke by running a 118 timefigure stepping back a furlong to the Voltigeur distance in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.

That form - and timefigure - is comfortably the best on offer here, and while he has 4lb to find with Secret State on King George V form at Ascot, he didn’t get the best trip that day whereas everything fell right for the winner as it did when he followed up in a handicap at Goodwood, though that, of course, is testament to the tactical brain of William Buick who is hands down the best jockey around at present.

Dramatised sets a very tall standard in the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes on Thursday with her 112 Queen Mary timefigure still being the best by a two-year-old this season, but 6/4 isn’t giving anything away and with nothing else appealing on the day her stable-mate Marshman ought not to be overlooked in the Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes on Friday.

He might only have won a novice at Thirsk last time but his 102 timefigure was the fastest recorded at the North Yorkshire venue this century by 5lb, and a 7lb upgrade takes that overall timerating to 109. A quick turnaround might be a concern, but he was ready to run in the Richmond at Goodwood only to miss the race and had he won there instead of at Thirsk, he’d be much shorter in the market here.

He’s been confirmed as a definite runner, and with the chance the field could cut up with some of his more dangerous rivals engaged in the Prix Morny he appeals as a good ante-post bet. The Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes has a nice betting shape to it with the favourite Royal Aclaim having achieved much less on the clock than you would like to see in one trading at 6/4, for all she has a defeat of Perfect Power on her record, and there’s little in the form or times of The Platinum Queen to suggest she should be second favourite either, so at bigger odds it’s worth thinking that Emaraaty Ana (16/1) will take his form forward another step or two.

He was second in this race last year behind Winter Power, who has struggled to recapture her form this season, before winning the Sprint Cup. A trip to Meydan earlier this year has meant his season has taken on a different look to 2021, but his last two efforts at Royal Ascot and in the July Cup suggest he’s bubbling under, he has nothing to find on the clock and he’ll have been readied for this. It’s easy to see him running into a place again.

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