Graeme North reflects on the Grand National meeting at Aintree and reveals what the clock tells us about the key performances.
‘Always have the courage of your convictions’ was one of the first maxims I had drummed into me when I started analysing races for Timeform in the late eighties, but as my focus moved more and more towards backing that analysis with hard cash another issue that often raised its head - and did so again ahead of the latest Grand National - is that it is just as important in having the courage to overcome your restrictions.
Anyone who has read this column fastidiously in the last year or so will be well aware how often I have mentioned Noble Yeats; indeed, I doubt I have mentioned a horse more regularly. The winner of a maiden hurdle at Navan 13 months ago on his only start over smaller obstacles following a three-race bumper career that included a win at Thurles, Noble Yeats looked a very good prospect when winning his beginners' chase at Galway in October. However, slow starts and jumping issues, as well as the bizarre (or inspired depending on your viewpoint) decision to drop him back to two miles at one point, served to keep his proper merit under wraps until the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby in February where his jumping issues suddenly seemed resolved in chasing home Ahoy Senor in a piece of form that doesn’t look too shabby now.
Bought with the Grand National in mind and remaining with Emmett Mullins, I ended up leaving him alone in the National (I’d have been quite happy with the Betfair SP of 29.1 let alone his 50/1 starting price) as I became too focused on the small issue of his rider’s lack of recent action in the saddle rather than his longer-term record over the National fences and the bigger picture involving the horse itself. A painful reminder that that you should never let horses high up on your radar go unbacked!
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Noble Yeats will almost certainly be back for another crack at the National in 2023 and it will be interesting to see what action Martin Greenwood, the current BHA chief handicapper and a former colleague (as well as often uninvited flat-mate) of mine, does with his rating as well as that of runner-up Any Second Now given the pair finished 20 lengths clear. Last year’s winner Minella Times was hiked an eyebrow-raising 15lb while Any Second Now, an unlucky-in-running third last year, also went up 7lb, and the performance of the Any Second Now will no doubt be used as justification that the rise in the weights given to Minella Times (who fell early on) was a fair one.
Whether the ‘Aintree aspect’ needs to be factored into the National weights any longer I’m not sure given that the fences (and consequentially the race) have been changed drastically since 2012. The race is more about stamina than jumping ability these days, for all the total of 13 fallers or unseated as recorded by Timeform this year was the highest number since 14 met the same criteria back in 2014 when Timeform also returned the ground as good to soft.
The 2014 running was the penultimate race run over the old official distance of four and a half miles before the course was remeasured, since when only Tiger Roll in 2019 and One For Arthur in 2017 have covered the National distance faster than Noble Yeats whose time translated into a 149 timefigure. Incidentally, 44 seven-year-olds have run in the National this century and Noble Yeats has been the only one to finish in the first four (Farclas was fifth last year, which had been the best finish by one of his age since Big Fella Thanks in 2009). Some achievement!
I’ve held pretty much every editorial post at Timeform over the years but the one I haven’t (though I did hold the position in my brief tenure at The Sportsman) is jumps handicapper. As a consequence, I’ve never delved too deeply beyond my own instinct into how I might square form seemingly shown at Aintree with that posted three weeks earlier at Cheltenham, but, if I had to, I suspect some of the results this week would have had me scratching my head from a form perspective.
So far as Thursday’s timefigures are concerned, the best posted by any of the winners came from Clan Des Obeaux (157) in the Betway Bowl, so rescuing Britain’s champion trainer Paul Nicholls from an unwanted whitewash at the big two domestic Festivals. Blinkered for the first time, Clan Des Obeaux didn’t quite have to run to the form or the timefigure (160) he showed in his wide-margin win in the same race in 2021 to get the better of Conflated by a length, in itself a reflection that those who turned up after contesting the Gold Cup weren’t at their best.
It must be slightly concerning for Nicholls that Clan Des Obeaux will be 11 next year and, other than him, the trainer looks short on firepower (with the possible exception of Bravemansgame, notwithstanding the latter’s disappointing effort in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase) for the top races next season. That makes me think Nicholls will be one to take on in the betting for next season’s trainers’ championship.
Knight Salute went missing at Cheltenham in the Triumph but he’d gone into that race pretty much the best of the home contingent on the clock and he surpassed even his best form to force a dead-heat with Pied Piper (who’d finished six places in front of him in the Triumph) in a good 142 timefigure, and he was then awarded the race outright in slightly controversial circumstances after being hampered at the last.
Millers Bank confirmed his liking for the track and this time of season when taking the opening race of the meeting, the two-and-half mile novice chase in a 140 timefigure but it wasn’t a contest that deserved Grade 1 status in all honesty. That is a comment that could also be aimed at the Aintree Hurdle. Epatante was finally given an opportunity to race at two and a half miles and she grasped it in no uncertain terms, though a lowly 129 timefigure shows she was allowed her to utilise her two-mile speed against a field of second-raters (final-flight faller Zanahiyr possibly excepted) in a clear-cut win.
On Friday, Jonbon and Fakir d’Oudairies shared the honours posting 152 timefigures in the Top Novices’ Hurdle and the Marsh Chase respectively. Jonbon’s 152 is his best timefigure, if not conclusive proof on time just yet that he’s the top-notcher his home reputation has long marked him out to be, at least at two miles. He might well find it hard to contain the less-experienced runner-up El Fabiolo should the pair clash over fences next season.
In contrast, Fakir d’Oudairies achieved little he hadn’t before, either on form or on the clock, in disposing of a very weak field (more a Grade 3 than a Grade 1) among whom very few gave their running.
Ahoy Senor looked impressive in the Mildmay but with Brown Advisory winner L’Homme Presse well below the form he showed at Cheltenham (in common with all his stablemates at the meeting) and Bravemansgame hoisting the white flag far too early for it to be his true form, a five-length defeat of Fury Road under a controlling front-running ride in a 145 timefigure isn’t convincing evidence just yet that he’s ready to be taking on A Plus Tard. Langer Dan made up for his Cheltenham tumble by landing the opening handicap in a 144 timefigure which would probably have won him (albeit narrowly) the Martin Pipe he had been quite clearly laid out for.
On National Day, Arkle winner Edwardstone had his colours lowered in the Maghull Novices’ Chase. He wasn’t far below his Arkle form in going to down to new-kid-on-the-block Gentleman De Mee but a 148 timefigure (154 for the winner) suggests that he had plenty on trying to run down the winner from behind.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsGentleman De Mee’s 154 edged out Sam Brown’s 153 as the best winning timefigure on the day, though the latter’s win would have come as a surprise to ground-focused punters. Sam Brown’s 15-length defeat of apparent handicap good thing Shan Blue (given yet another rash ride) might not have been a total surprise had conditions been very heavy but was given the ground was ‘only’ good to soft.
Flooring Porter (timefigure 141) couldn’t confirm 2021 Stayers’ Hurdle form with Sire Du Berlais (143) in the Liverpool Hurdle, just collared by a stronger stayer and fresher horse at the end of a well-run race, showing that there isn’t much between the current crop of staying hurdlers.
All the same, the Liverpool Hurdle was one of numerous races at the meeting that very much had an ‘end-of-season’ feel to it and for all there were two Group 3 races at the Curragh on Sunday won by Layfayette (109 timefigure) and Markaz Paname (73) respectively, the Flat turf season ‘proper’ finally starts this week with the Classic trials at Newmarket and Newbury. And not a moment too soon.
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