Plenty of action for our star analyst Graeme North to go through from the weekend - Shishkin, Energumene, Jonbon and Royale Pagaille all covered.
Ascot: I wish I was there moment
Other than point-to-pointing as a youngster and spending more time at Hexham and Sedgefield than in the lecture theatre in my first year at Newcastle Uni (I had already covered much of the subject matter I was studying for at A level the previous year) I’ve never been a regular racegoer.
I can’t say I have regretted that much, preferring to analyse things from afar, though a January visit in 2019 to the first Yorkshire point-to-point of the year at Sheriff Hutton did encourage me there might be a narrow window of opportunity to make the most of paddock inspection at that early point of the season until overrounds north of 200% on the boards persuaded me otherwise.
Of all the good horses I’ve seen in the flesh, the near-black mean-looking bull of a horse Chief Singer (about whom a book, ‘Chief Singer… and all that followed’ by John O’Connell has just been published) is the one who still stands out most in my memory. I never saw Frankel, unfortunately, and all the jumping giants have passed me by too, but there was a moment at Ascot on Saturday as Energumene turned for home towards the jockeys who had congregated by the final fence in expectation of what might unfold that I wished I was there.
I had my doubts that a clash between Shishkin and Energumene would ever go ahead before Cheltenham, but thankfully it did and what a race it turned out to be. Unbeaten in eleven races between them and barely a cigarette paper between them on either timefigures or combined timefigures and upgrades (Energumene shaded the former, Shishkin the latter) the clash fittingly went right down to the wire at the end of a race run at a searching end-to-end gallop that saw last year’s winner and high-class chaser in his own right, First Flow, fall right away between the last two fences.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Energumene’s slick jumping out in front at speed for the most part put it up to Shishkin like never before, eliciting one bad error in particular, and as kept up the gallop from Swinley Bottom it seemed increasingly likely that the odds-on favourite and not Energumen would be the one to lose his unbeaten record over fences.
The harder ridden of the pair rounding the final bend, Shishkin looked on the ropes but as Energumene brushed through the last two fences, as he had done the third last, he found just enough as the Irish raider wilted in the last few strides.
Shishkin and Energumene unsurprisingly posted career-best timefigures of 178 and 177 with small upgrades - as one would expect at the end of a strongly-run race - taking those combined figures into the low 180s. To put those timefigures in context since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps in 2016, only Altior, Footpad and Allaho have achieved a higher figure.
The pair might well meet again in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, though Energumene, who is proven at a soundly-run two-and-a-half miles in the mud, also has the Ryanair as a possible option.
Why no timefigure for Allaho?
Should he take that path, he’ll bump into reigning champion and stable-companion Allaho who followed up by his win in the John Durkan Memorial by taking the Grade 2 Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase for the second year running. Unfortunately, Timeform don’t return timefigures for Thurles. This has nothing to do with the recent course amendments that saw the second-last fence relocated to the flat section along the top of the track, but because the historical data at the point National Hunt standard times were calculated several years ago was found to be non sensical (much like Tramore).
As time goes by and a bigger body of accurate race distances is built up - Thurles is one of the Irish tracks that now return precise distances - that decision will be revisited, but for now it’s hard to say what the ‘time merit’ of Allaho’s performance was. With chief opponent Fakir d’Oudairies nearly unseating at the first and less than fluent thereafter, and neither Notebook nor last-fence casualty Battleoverdoyen in the top rank over fences anymore, Allaho was left with an easy task.
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsA winning time only 15lb or so faster than the 132-rated mare Ballyshannon Rose earlier in the card over the same distance and a closing sectional from three out not massively faster than other winners Fakir D’Alene or Winged Leader (in the closing hunter chase) rather suggests this probably wasn’t much more than a solid racecourse gallop.
Shishkin might have delivered but what did the clock say about the Sky Bet Supreme claims of his highly-touted stable-companion Jonbon? Regular readers of this column will be aware I’ve been lukewarm about Jonbon, much preferring the Supreme claims first and foremost of Constitution Hill and, more latterly, Dysart Dynamo too.
As I have written before, those two have posted combined overall times and finishing speeds that mark them out as top-class novices. The same couldn’t be said about Jonbon after his first two starts, and his latest win in the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle, though better on the clock, rather confirms that view.
Whereas previous guidance might have been that timefigures would have told you how bad a horse like Jonbon wasn’t after his first two runs, rather than how good he was, now we can incorporate sectional upgrades into a combined timefigure rating a horse doesn’t have to run a fast time any more to have a pretty good idea of what level he might have achieved had he or she gone faster in the early stages (as fast timefigures are dependent upon a fast pace in the early stages of a race).
What did Jonbon achieve at Haydock?
In those first two wins, in which he made all or most of the running, Jonbon hadn’t run a fast time but neither had he run a fast sectional (or ‘upgrade’) either. Jonbon went some way to rectifying those omissions in the Rossington Main, returning a 139 timefigure which was boosted to 145 after taking into account his 6lb upgrade calculated from three out, but that still leaves him around 10lb shy of the combined time ratings posted by Constitution Hill and Dysart Dynamo.
A head-to-head comparison with Tommy’s Oscar, who won the following The New One Unibet Champion Hurdle Trial doesn’t paint Jonbon in much of a better light, either. Timed from the point the pair had jumped the first hurdle, Jonbon was already two and a half seconds down (somewhere between 11 and 12 lengths) on Tommy’s Oscar by the fourth flight, and though he clawed that deficit back to just under two seconds on the run to the final hurdle, Tommy’s Oscar still managed to come home two lengths faster from the last.
Jonbon has more improvement to come, and probably a good deal over fences as a powerfully-built brother to Douvan, but the clock tells me he isn’t fast enough for the Supreme. The awkward head and tendency to lug left he showed in the straight would also concern me. Lest anyone forget, third-placed Might I had been left for dead by Constitution Hill when the latter was making his hurdling debut at Sandown last December.
Whatever heights Jonbon reaches over the smaller obstacles, this season has been one to remember for the stable with its novice hurdlers after a barren 2020-21 season when the yard didn’t have one runner in the feature novice events at the Cheltenham Festival, and they look like they have another exciting recruit on their hands in the shape of Walking On Air who was a very easy winner at Newbury last Wednesday.
Henderson has another novice ace
Walking On Air’s timefigure was a rather ordinary 87 but a 47lb upgrade elevates him to the mid 130s. Much as Constitution Hill had done when making his impressive debut at Sandown, Walking On Air quickened right away from his rivals from the second last, running the last two furlongs according to Course Track sectionals over two seconds faster than anything else in the race while recording easily the fastest last half mile and quarter-mile over hurdles on the day.
Out of an Oscar mare who stayed three miles, he’s Ballymore bound by the sounds of it and is a strong addition to what already looks a deeper home contingent for the division than this time last year.
A couple of other notable efforts from last week with which to finish. Royale Pagaille showed that his Gold Cup ambitions are far from dead and buried in the Peter Marsh at Haydock, posting a career-best 162 as he edged out Sam Brown, improving 3lb on the 159 timefigure he recorded in the same race the previous year off an official mark 7lb lower.
The only other winning timefigure on the weekend over 150 (151) came at Lingfield’s inaugural ‘Winter Millions’ meeting where Two For Gold landed the Grade 2 Fleur De Lys Chase narrowly from Dashel Drasher and Bristol De Mai in a race marred by the fatal fall of Master Tommytucker. The ‘Winter Millions’ concept is a laudable one but field sizes as well as quality on both days the jumps had star billing were disappointing in view of the money on offer and the project needs a bit of tweaking if it is to really take off.
