Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North | Arc weekend reflections

Arc weekend never loses its magic. Having been paired with an exchange student at school whose family lived in Rue de Clichy in the heart of Paris and who I got to visit several times a year, I got to know Paris and its attendant racecourses very well from a young age.

Auteuil, just along from the Stade Roland Garros, remains my favourite French racetrack, though I was mightily impressed by Compiegne as well as the town when I went there a couple of years ago and still have a soft spot for the currently-closed vast expanse of Maisons-Laffite if not the seemingly-endless walk there on the road that runs alongside the mile-and-a-quarter straight.

I was intending going back to Longchamp - or ParisLongchamp as it is now called since its facelift – this weekend for the first time in many years, but unfortunately had to alter my plans a couple of months ago on account of being required every weekend to help renovate the mother-in-law’s house so it can be rented out to partly cover her care home fees.

So, paintbrush in hand, I had to be content with catching the action in between second and third coats, but what action it was!

The highlight of Saturday’s card, even before its remarkable outcome, was the Prix du Cadran, in which Kyprios, a horse who would have been many people’s fancy for the Arc had he run in that race, started odds-on to extend his winning run.

My admiration of the son of Galileo has grown as the season has gone on, but even so I wasn’t prepared for what evolved. A 20-length win in a Group race in Europe is not unique - Alson won the Group 1 Criterium International by the same margin in 2019 - but Andre Fabre’s colt had only one rival to beat and not 11, four of whom Timeform had rated north of 115 going into the race.

Timeform don’t publish timefigures for Longchamp, as precise standards aren’t easy to land upon given racing takes place over four distinct courses, but by my estimation, with the help of some universal standards and an understanding of the course topography, Kyprios probably ran a figure somewhere around the 115 mark, which along with a small upgrade (using a universal finishing speed model adapted to the times that have been recorded at Longchamp since detailed sectional data has been returned) suggests that his performance on the clock in a well-run race wouldn’t have been too far off the 118 he returned in the Irish St Leger.

And all that despite losing a shoe as well! His win means he is now the only horse this century to have twice won a Group race in Britain, Ireland or France by 14 lengths or more.

It’s very rare that I post a ‘tip’ on Twitter but I made an exception on Saturday when expressing the opinion that Jannah Flower, a horse I mentioned in this column after her defeat by Prix du Cadran flop Quickthorn in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil in July, was very much a horse to be interested in for the first Group 1 of the day, the Prix de Royallieu over 2800m.

Jannah Flower should have won the Nieuil, running the last 600m four lengths faster than Quickthorn after being given plenty to do, and it was easy to ignore her last run in a small-field affair run at a crawl at Deauville. Frustratingly, given she was sent off at 17/1, Jannah Flower once again found herself in a race not run at a proper gallop, as is evidenced by the fact that Sea La Rosa (who won that race at Deauville) ran a 36.1 second final 600m sectional which was the second-quickest winning one on the card.

Whether Jannah Flower, who was still pulling her rider’s arms out as they turned for home, would have won ridden closer to the pace is unclear, given her connections seem to think she’s a filly suited to being dropped right out, but she ran the same section over half a second quicker than Sea La Rosa. She emerges with an upgrade big enough to think she was once again an unlucky loser in a race the French handicapper will feel vindicated that the controversial rating he gave Verry Elleegant that saw her miss the Arc was the correct one.

The time performance of the day by my reckoning came in the strongly-run Prix Dollar where Anmaat edged out the home-trained three-year-old Junko, whose second last time out to Al Hakeem was made to look even better the following day.

Anmaat got back up on the line to maintain his unbeaten record this season and on the clock this probably bettered his win (119) in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes last time out. Later in the afternoon, Erevann more than confirmed his Jacques le Marois third with a commanding win in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein. The race wasn’t run at a flat-out gallop, giving him a fair old upgrade and overall his time performance looks to be not far off the 122 Timeform have rated him.

Sunday’s racing was much harder to interpret from a timing perspective, not just because of the rain that arrived before the Arc de Triomphe but because three different tracks were in use and big fields ensured the ground deteriorated as the day wore on.

The card kicked off with Belbek redeeming a reputation that had taken a battering after defeats in the Prix Robert-Papin and Prix de Cabourg, clearly relishing the much softer surface he encountered here, but for me his compatriot and fellow two-year-old Blue Rose Cen ran a fair bit faster in the following race, the Prix Marcel Boussac, and probably warrants a timefigure right up there with the best recorded by those of her sex this year.

A wide-margin win in this race is usually a precursor to Group 1 success the following year – dual Classic winners Finsceal Beo and Zarkava spring readily to mind – and I don’t doubt that Blue Rose Cen, whose winning margin was the biggest in the race this century, is the real deal. The other juvenile winner on the card, The Platinum Queen, probably wasn’t far off the 111 timefigure she posted in the Flying Childers. Few got into contention with seven horses running the last 600m faster than the winner according to the tracking data. New York City, who ran that section fastest of all as well as by some way the fastest last 200m, can be considered a lot better than the result for all the race was a shadow of some previous renewals.

Alpinista’s win in the Arc was well received in most quarters and was a career best effort so extending her Group 1 winning streak to six since it began at the hands of Torquator Tasso in the Grosser Preis Von Berlin back in August 2021.

Torquator Tasso didn’t have things go his way that day, travelling much more sweetly than Alpinista only to get bumped and hemmed in early in the short straight, and the 2021 Arc winner was once again dealt a poor hand against his old rival, drawn out in the car park while Alpinista was berthed near the inside rail in six.

That meant Torquator Tasso covered a fair bit more ground than Alpinista – 6.98 meters according to the tracking data, or getting on for three lengths – so connections are entitled on the face of things entitled to feel aggrieved he finished third beaten under a length. Torquator Tasso ran the last 600m 0.39 seconds (or roughly 2 lengths) faster than the winner, though not as fast as Vadeni who covered that section fastest of all only for his rider Christophe Soumillon to lament - correctly in my opinion – that he had to use up too much energy to get to the winner after getting caught behind the ‘wrong’ horse on the home turn.

Al Hakeem, a horse I have mentioned in this column on several occasions, travelled and moved majestically for a long way and he promises to make into a top-class four-year-old next year. Grand Glory also ran a cracker considering she still had just one behind her turning in, beaten just about as far by Alpinista as the extra ground she covered. The data available via the France Galop website also revealed that Al Hakeem had hit the highest top speed during the race whereas the always-behind Mishriff had the lowest. All that adds up to a time performance that I would pencil in as right up to scratch when upgrades are incorporated.

The first of the other Group 1 races on the card, the Prix de L’Opera, went to Place du Carrousel in extraordinary fashion. Nashwa looked to have the contest, which was steadily run, won as she was sent for home early in the straight, but the eventual winner, who had been off since finishing down the field behind the runner-up in the Prix de Diane, put in a storming last 600m from well back to get up close home on ground much softer than she had encountered previously.

My fancy, the Prix Vermeille eyecatcher La Parisienne, pulled too hard with no cover wide on the track and is much better than this. The other Group 1, the Prix de la Foret, didn’t pull up any trees on the clock, either, and Kinross was far too good as expected.

The highlight domestically on the clock over the weekend was Rohaan’s win in the John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes. He has had several mentions in this column this year and finally got his ideal conditions at Ascot, a strong pace on softish ground allowing him to return a 116 timefigure as he got the better of two horses, Summerghand and Commanche Falls, who had also won one of the flagship six-furlong handicaps earlier in the season.

The Royal Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes, the sole Group 1 race at home last week, threw up something of a shock as Fonteyn added to her listed win at York back in May, though with the three winners at Group 1 level all running below form and a winning timefigure of just 108, this looks potentially muddling form.

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