Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North including Galopin Des Champs

Inside or outside? That was a question I often asked myself over the festive period whenever the weather relented and I encountered the sort of saturated terrain out on a walk that unsurprisingly caused disruption elsewhere to the fixture list.

In almost every instance a very wide course ended up being the wisest course to avoid the mudbath on the most trodden course, and with those experiences in mind it was interesting to read some of the reaction to events at Leopardstown in the final half of their Christmas meeting where those who stayed wide on the chase course encountered very different outcomes to those who took the shorter route.

Track or ground biases are more usually associated with Flat racing and have been particularly prevalent at Newcastle this winter where a pitch next to the stand rail has regularly been a big advantage, but they are just as often present over jumps.

Biases are apt to come and go – the big draw advantages once held by rail runners at Thirsk and Beverley doesn’t exist anymore, for example, and the usual outside advantage at Limerick’s four-day Christmas meeting wasn’t there this year - but it did appear to be a big help to race very wide in the chases on the last two days as the meeting went on and with that observation in mind, I’d be slightly cautious when analysing the performances of both Galopin des Champs and Grangeclare West in the Savills Chase and Fort Leney respectively.

After all, it wasn’t long ago that Stage Star looked so impressive hugging the inner at Cheltenham in the Paddy Power Gold Cup when everything else and the runner-up in particular took a much wider course and in hindsight it looks as if the 11lb rise in his official mark he received for that win was a gross overreaction.

The Savills wasn’t quite the race it had promised to be the day before with three withdrawals reducing the field to seven, Fastorslow, the horse who had beaten Galopin des Champs on his last two starts the most notable of that trio, but it was still a deeper affair, on paper at least, than the King George had been at Kempton two days previously.

The very testing conditions and the step back up in trip saw a burst of support for Irish Grand National winner I Am Maximus, who had beaten subsequent Grade 1 winner Found A Fifty over two and a half miles on his previous start, but it was his performance that suggested to me that the inside, where he raced along with Conflated, wasn’t the best place to be.

Heading into the final turn both were well there and though driven along still looked sure to be concerned in the finish; straightening for home and kept tight to the inside, both began to labour immediately as Galopin des Champs was steered to the fresher ground on the outside and only I Am Maximus of the pair made it (and then only just) over the final fence.

The gallop had been a good one but not so strong as to get any of a good field out of their comfort zones early and a 160 timefigure for the winner is nothing exceptional by his standards. Given that 80/1 shot Cappodanno appeared to run so well in third while taking the same wide route is something of a red flag for me and in the circumstances I wouldn’t be too harsh on the beaten horses, particularly Gerri Colombe who plotted something of a mid-course and has already run figures that show he is better than this.

A Plus Tard was much closer to the inner than was ideal on ground more testing than ideal, and after a disappointing 2022-2023 season it’s hard to know where he will end up. His trainer Henry de Bromhead wasn’t averse to taking a lesser route at the last Festival with one-time Champion Hurdler Honeysuckle but word has it A Plus Tard might be retired.

Given those events, it was rather surprising the following day to see only the 300/1 outsider Tullyhogue Fort take the same route (an even wider one, in fact) than Grangeclare West while Corbetts Cross and particularly Flooring Porter were kept to the inside. Corbetts Cross looks to me to still have something to learn about jumping and wasn’t helped either by making a move on the inside earlier than the more patiently-ridden winner, and though he was moved over nearer Grangeclare West in the home straight those negatives ended up taking their toll.

Flooring Porter was the best of these over hurdles and maybe he will head back down that route now, but he beat Broadway Boy readily enough at Cheltenham back in the autumn and he’s had legitimate excuses for both defeats since. Whateer you make of his winning margin, and how he achieved it, Grangeclare West jumped much the best of these and a 150 timefigure suggests he’s one of several from his stable in the Cheltenham Festival novice chase mix.

Fact To File is another whose credentials are decent enough on the face of things, not least he posted a 150 timefigure despite being kept to the inside, but that run came earlier in the meeting on what looked better ground and I’m not sure what he had behind him. Runner-up Zanahiyr hardly looked a natural on his belated chasing debut while third-placed and easy-to-back Minella Cocooner looked to be out for a pipe-opener over a trip well short of his best.

Only Indiana Dream in novice chases has impressed me as much as Gaelic Warrior did on his chasing debut and the latter not unexpectedly made short work of his stable-companion Il Etait Temps in the Guinness Faugheen Novice Chase at Limerick in a smart 151 timefigure. Nothing Gaelic Warrior did at Limerick caused me to alter my opinion; indeed, I felt he jumped better on this occasion, and he could have won by a country mile had his rider not slowed things up on the final turn allowing his rivals to close in. Just a pity I backed him ante-post for what appears to be the wrong race!

The main hurdles events at Leopardstown in the period under review were the Matheson Hurdle, in which I was hoping to see Impaire Et Passe advance his Champion Hurdle prospects, and the Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle. In the event Impaire Et Passe never looked like beating State Man after gifting him several lengths lead, for all he ran a career-best 160 on the clock, and perhaps being ridden from the front at this trip, as he had been when winning the Moscow Flyer last January when his hurdling was far more proficient than it was this time at Leopardstown, is the way to ride him. All the same, State Man looked an improved model I thought from last season and a 165 timefigure is easily a career best for him as well, so the Champion Hurdle isn’t a dead rubber just yet.

The previous day the progressive Irish Point had secured his fourth win in succession and second this season when landing the Christmas Hurdle in commanding fashion. The youngest in the field and upped to three miles for the first time, his speed at shorter trips (timefigure here just 130) undoubtedly counted for plenty up against some slowing veterans, but even so it was hard not be impressed by the distance he put between himself and the rest after the final hurdle and much like his stable-companion Teahupoo it could be that he can reinvent himself as a stayer for all the demands of the stamina-sapping New Course with just two hurdles in the final six furlongs presents a different test entirely. Tougher rivals than Asterion Forlonge, Ballyadam and Beacon Edge will face him at Cheltenham, however.

The only other Graded hurdle in Ireland over Christmas was the Grade 3 formerly known as the Kerrymouth and went to Jetara. She’s a mare that hasn’t made much impression me on the clock so far and in all honesty didn’t once again here, a 101 timefigure at the ned of a race that saw a couple of hurdles omitted and the exposed Pink In The Park chasing her home in second in some ordinary sectionals suggestive of weak form once again.

Before leaving the Irish action over Christmas, an observation on the Grade 1s being dominated by two yards. Between the years 2016 and 2021 two of the Grade 1s run at either Leopardstown or Limerick over Christmas went to trainers other than Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott, but that figure dropped to one in 2022 before dropping again to zero this year.

Trainers other than Mullins or Elliott were responsible for as many as twelve second or third placed horses in those races as recently as 2015 and still as many as ten in 2019 but that figured has since dwindled to five and even their main flag bearer Henry de Bromhead managed only one third place from three Grade 1 runners this year. Against this backdrop, with an ever- increasing number of the better horses concentrated in the top two yards, especially over fences, it’s no surprise that action is now being considered to stop the strangulation of top handicaps as well.

A prize as valuable as the Grand National that has unashamedly focussed on attracting quality horses either current or past with favourable handicapping treatment is a good case in point, where a place in the starting line-up is now prized in itself. To that end, certainly among the older contingent, protection of a handicap mark that isn’t coming down fast enough either because the horse hasn’t run enough, not least in handicaps, to make that regression more public or has been campaigned over hurdles to avoid scrutiny of its chase must be a frustration to connections of those upwardly mobile younger horses denied a run in recent years.

A severe tweak or two in that direction would be a better instrument certainly than a blanket cap on the number of runners from any particular yard as I’ve seen proposed.

The feature hurdle domestically at Newbury’s final meeting of the year was the Challow Hurdle, a race the Paul Nicholls stable had won for the past three years and did so again here with Captain Teague. All of that trio went on to contest the Ballymore at Cheltenham yet none finished within ten lengths of the winner if they finished at all which doesn’t augur well for Captain Teague’s prospects, not least that this contest developed as it so often does into the stamina-sapping and plodding finish a million miles away from your typical Ballymore. A 117 timefigure further weakens my estimation of the form.

Speaking of the Ballymore, the rejuvenated 2021 winner Bob Olinger was one of two Irish-trained winners on Cheltenham’s New Year Day card. His old determination is still there seeing as how he put the 2023 Liverpool Hurdle runner-up Marie’s’ Rock and sprightly veteran Brewin’upastorm to bed after fighting to make the gap on the rail his own, but both his wins this season have come at the expense of regressive types and both the overall time (133 timefigure) and sectionals warn me he might be further away from his old self than it looks at first glance.

At least it was a good couple of days for Henry de Bromhead having landed a decent beginners chase (148 timefigure) at Punchestown with the promising Monty’s Star, a potential National Hunt Chase type, as well as the Grade 3 Metal Man Chase at Tramore with Jungle Boogie.

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