Our timefigure expert Graeme North highlights the importance of Irish point form and also identifies some horses who have impressed on the clock under Rules.
It was interesting to read after Gatineau Park’s fifth place in the second division of a maiden hurdle at Ffos Las last week that his trainer Kim Bailey reportedly remarked that not only was he delighted with the performance of his horse but also that he thought it was the best novice hurdle run this season.
That’s a fascinating insight from a leading trainer who, reading between the lines from his comments, presumably thinks not just a lot of the first four horses but also his own too, all of whom were making their first appearance over hurdles in public. Using traditional handicapping methods, it’s hard to take a high view of a race at a ‘minor track’ in which the first six were covered by barely five lengths at the end of a steadily-run race (timefigure was 73, Timeform’s sectional upgrade for the winner Starzand was 22lb, giving an overall timerating of 95) and Timeform’s assessment for the winner was 114p. That's 6lb lower than the figure awarded to Kalkbrenner who won the earlier division in a faster time and in which the runners finished more strung out.
I suspect Bailey’s partially informed assessment was close to the mark and the race is worth keeping a close eye on (replay below).
There may not have been much public form to go on – only two of the first six had contested a bumper, Starzand winning his only start in that sphere at Ffos Las and sixth-placed Big Cadillac winning his only one too, at Chepstow – but those from the Irish pointing field had shown plenty. That makes me think, too, that this was one of the hotter maiden hurdles seen so far this year if not absolutely the best, and with the current National Hunt season starting to really pick up I’d encourage any reader looking for an edge in pursuit of punting profit, one he or she can be fairly safe in assuming they are operating in virtually uncharted territory, to acquire a good knowledge and understanding of Irish point form.
As the 63 recruits from the Irish pointing field declared for last Friday’s three meetings at Down Royal, Uttoxeter and Wetherby suggested, the professional winter sport relies heavily on its little publicised amateur ranks and it’s nigh on impossible to analyse or price up accurately a race contested by multiple former pointers, particularly those who have graduated recently, if you take the view that those races are unimportant or worth less than bumper form.
Staying with those two Ffos Las hurdles for now, both the first two in the first division, Kalkbrenner and The Price Of Peace, had won their sole starts in Irish points, while the next three home, Swindon Village, Klimt Madrik and Lon Chaney all had placed efforts to their name, albeit those races for two of them were back in the 2023/4 season; in the second division, not only had Starzand won his sole point but so too had third-placed Gee Force, fourth-placed Jurys Inn and Big Cadillac, while Bailey’s horse, Gatineau Park, had won his third start by ten lengths and the runner-up Dig Deep had finished second in his only run.
Converting performances in Irish points to ratings commensurate with the scale used by Timeform or the British Horseracing Authority over jumps isn’t straightforward, and takes a bit of experience, but it’s achievable with some effort and application – there is often an Open race on the card won by a horse who is a Hunter Chase regular with identifiable form - and manageable too with just two or three meetings a weekend.
I calculate all my ratings using a combination of final time, sectional time, weight carried and type of race won. Very helpfully, in nearly all cases, the races on the card are run over exactly the same distance (though all aren’t three miles as claimed) and anyone wanting nothing more than a comparison between finishing times at any one meeting (which I’ve been informed by those in charge at the Irish pointing website Irishp2p.ie are accurate) will find the results freely available on the Irish Racing website.
Timing the last segment – usually the final circuit where camerawork allows – from the more comprehensive (subscription) replay service provided by Irish p2p.ie often adds a more sophisticated layer of interpretation to the results, not least in respect of those who would have won or finished close up had they not come down at either of the final two fences.
Four-year-old maidens are the sport's ‘shop window’ and as a consequence are usually run at the start of a card on fresh ground, and usually run at a stronger gallop than later races too. They can often be overrated because of that, but, for what it’s worth, I rated Kalkbrenner 118 in his Irish point win (it’s important to remember ratings for those behind won’t necessarily follow a simple pounds-per-length calculation as they will all have run the final section in different times), while I gave Starzand 126 with the ratings for those horses that followed him home at Ffos Las all well into the 100s with even Gatineau Park getting a 112 at Loughanmore on the start before his ten-length win. That’s a deep maiden hurdle in my experience and one that will surely pay to follow.
Lurking further down the same card on the same day, another horse that caught my eye ahead of the day was House Of Habsburg who finished out the back in the handicap hurdle. With it being his first run for six months, his trainer Christian Williams still very much on the quiet list and this run not revealing much immediate promise it would be easy to overlook him in his next couple of runs, but it’s worth remembering he was still disputing the lead in the maiden won by Loaded And Locked at Ballindenisk in January and he, of course, won a bumper at Worcester last month without coming off the bridle.
I had Loaded And Locked running to 121 at Ballindenisk so there’s every likelihood that the well-bred House Of Habsburg (who had been third to Big Cadillac on his debut 11 months previously, and is by Order Of St George out of a mare who was third to Quevega in the 2013 Mares’ Hurdle) is potentially well treated off his new mark of 90, down 4lb after last week, having run to a rating (or would have had he completed) that is on a level with several horses who have scored in novice hurdles over the last few weeks.
I’m not sure the quality coming out of Irish points is quite the same level as it was a few years when the likes of Envoi Allen could be bought, but it’s an area that for sure will repay close consideration for those interested enough.
Envoi Allen is a very topical reference point as the multiple Cheltenham Grade 1 winner was back in action again at Down Royal at the weekend. As usual, the card turned into something of a Gordon Elliott benefit, though he also had his share of non-runners on ground faster than usual (one name noting from among those is With Nolimit who looked a particularly smart and enthusiastic sort when winning his point) as well as disappointments. Among those to disappoint was Found A Fifty who was favourite for the Betvictor Champion Chase on his first start at three miles but trailed home fourth behind reigning champion Envoi Allen, who was winning the race for the third time in the last four years.
Given Found A Fifty had won first time out at the fixture in the preceding two years, this has to go down as an underwhelming return in what was a muddling contest run in what looked a slow time, though it should be said timefigures were far from straightforward at Down Royal over the two days. This was on account of several factors, including low sun which meant the full distance wasn’t covered in any of the chase races affected (runners went inside of the fences, covering much less ground) as well as seemingly incorrect race distances with the 2m 3f 192y chase won by Romeo Coolio on Friday starting from the same point as the seemingly-more accurate 2m 3f 120y chase won by Firefox on Saturday.
The best winning timefigures of last week in either Britain or Ireland over hurdles were the 143 posted by Strong Leader at Wetherby in the bet365 Hurdle and the 134 posted by Alexei in the handicap hurdle at Ascot; Djelo exceeded those figures by some considerable margin in the Charlie Hall, taking Wetherby’s season-long feature in a smart 164, easily a career best in a race in which he was by some way the youngest on show, while Dan Skelton’s Be Aware posted 141, so exceeding anything he’d achieved over hurdles, when scoring on his chasing debut at Stratford. A timefigure of 141 is notably high for the chase course at Stratford; indeed, it has been exceeded only six times since 2000 and three of those wins were by subsequent Grade 1 winners Nickel Back and L’Eau Du Sud besides Hang In There who won the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter off a BHA mark of 155. All bodes well for him, then, not least when his jumping polishes up a bit.
The Flat might be winding down but six horses have managed to record a timefigure of 100 or more since last week’s column, headed by Chancellor who ran a 108 at Kempton on Monday evening on a card on which his stablemate Shader also matched that figure in the listed Unibet Floodlit Stakes. Two other listed contests last week that both came at 101 were the Montrose Stakes won by Pintara and the Finale Stakes at the Curragh won by Beset; the former looked another good Oaks prospect for Ralph Beckett when powering clear at Newmarket.
It might have come as a surprise – apparently – to Willie Mullins but maybe Ethical Diamond’s win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf perhaps shouldn’t have been entirely unexpected. After all, Never So Brave and El Cordobes are both horses who have gone on to score at Group or Grade 1 level after winning a handicap in Britain off an official mark of 100 or more this season and Ethical Diamond won the Ebor readily off 104.
El Cordobes’ win in the Sword Dancer earlier in the year at Saratoga came on the back of a win in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket and that for me makes Ebor eighth Subsequent one to look out for in the top Cup races next year. Nearest at the finish in the Ebor, he won the Mallard at Doncaster on his only start since off a mark of 102, a year after finishing second in the same race off a mark of 95, and being by Galileo, could well make a fair bit more improvement next year when finally stepped up to two miles or more.
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