Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

One of the reasons often given for diminishing levels of interest in recent years at the big Festivals in National Hunt racing is the dominance of Willie Mullins. Not just in respect of the number of winners he trains but in number of runners too. After all, at the latest Cheltenham Festival, he was responsible for 35 of the 89 runners who contested the seven Grade 1 contests over hurdles and eight of the 38 horses who ran in the Grade 1 events over fences.

Those figures – 39.3% and 21.1% of all the runners in those contests respectively – are high yet still far smaller than they were at the Dublin Racing Festival six weeks previously where he saddled an extraordinary 54.3% of the runners in the Grade 1 hurdles and 46.7% of the runners in the Grade 1 chases.

Aidan O’Brien hasn’t reached those levels of domination yet, but his figures for 2025, particularly in the Group 1 events for juveniles over seven furlongs and beyond, suggest that his stranglehold in that arena, which of course is from where most Classic middle-distance prospects for the following season emerge, is getting ever tighter.

Between 2020 and 2022, he was responsible for at most 19% of all the runners in Group 1 juvenile events over seven furlongs or more in Britain, Ireland and France; since then, however, that swarm has not been less than 27.5% of runners and as high as 37.1%. Restrict those Group 1 races to those over a mile or more, however, and the figures creep up to as high as 39.1%.

With such strength in depth, it’s hardly surprising that the juveniles have contributed significantly to his 25 Group 1 wins in Europe this season, three short of the record 28 wins he registered in 2017, and he won all three available events over the weekend, the William Hill Futurity at Doncaster (in which he also saddled second) as well as the Criterium International and Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

Victory for Ballydoyle in the Futurity is a common theme, of course. In the years since 2015 that the race has been held at Doncaster, they have now on it five times, including with Auguste Rodin in 2022, and further back among their other winners it went to Camelot in 2011 which was the last time just five runners went to post.

Camelot ran out an easy winner on just his second start after overcoming the run of a steadily-run race in impressive fashion, but there was no hanging about in the latest renewal with Hawk Mountain taking the field along streamlined by his stable-companions Action and Benvenuto Cellini.

After Lambourn’s brother Action threw down a challenge entering the last furlong, Hawk Mountain rallied to pass the post in a 116 timefigure which is the joint second-highest in the race since Camelot’s year, Action posting 115 and Benvenuto Cellini posting 108, like Hawk Mountain significant personal bests. Trying to work out which of the trio will turn out best next year is far from easy, given all of them had had already run three times, but if I had to pick one it would be Benvenuto Cellini who was having his first run on ground softer than good and whose physical make-up from the data available looks to be different to his stable companions.

Figures made available by Total Performance Data revealed Benvenuto Cellini turned over a much longer stride far less quickly than the shorter-striding Hawk Mountain and Action, posting figures (24.17 feet, 2.19 strides per second) that were highly similar to those posted by Auguste Rodin in 2022 (24.04 feet, 2.24 strides per second).

Benvenuto Cellini had made mincemeat of Hardy Warrior, whom I shall come to shortly, in the Champions Juvenile at Leopardstown, earning a 10lb bigger upgrade than that horse after quickening right away at the end of a steadily-run race, and he might be the one out of the three who makes the most improvement when sent over a mile-and-a-half next season.

Across at Saint-Cloud, Puerto Rico and Pierre Bonnard both advanced their reputations after wins in the Jean-Luc Lagardere and Zetland Stakes respectively. Seven went to post in the International but Puerto Rico never looked in any trouble after being taken to the front by Christophe Soumillon and despite being eased down in the final 200m – five of his opponents ran that section faster than he did according to the official tracking data – he still ran that section second fastest of all the winners on a day when six Group races graced the card.

Obviously, Puerto Rico had a big advantage on form – he was 9lb clear on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings – but there was a clear dominance to his performance, particularly in the penultimate 200m section which he needed just 23 strides to cover in contrast to the 25 or more required by his rivals. If there was a runner behind him who is almost certainly better than their finishing position, it was Hardy Warrior who was held up off the pace and came widest into the straight but flattened out in the final 200m after running both previous sections fastest of all.

Also a runner in that Champions Juvenile was A Boy Name Susie, who finished last of four, albeit just half a length behind Hardy Warrior, and he gave that form another boost when pushing Pierre Bonnard closest in the Criterium. The official result shows that he was beaten two lengths, but he ran much better than that, making swift headway from last place widest of all around the final bend to dispute the lead with 400m to run before finding the more efficiently ridden winner – Pierre Bonnard covered 7.6m less than A Boy Named Susie – going away from him in the final 200m.

The tracking data showed that Pierre Bonnard ran the last 600m in 35.85 seconds, approximately a length slower than Puerto Rico, mindful that the latter could arguably have run a couple of lengths faster, with the fastest last 600m being run by his stable-companion Isaac Newton who looked much more at home on this softer ground and over this longer trip than he had behind International third Cape Orator over 1600m on Arc weekend. All the same, with the hard-pulling maiden Proof still there at the finish, my suspicion is that this form is somewhat inferior to that shown by several other leading Classic candidates.

Staying at Saint-Cloud for now, the other Group 1 race, the Prix Royal Oak, went not to Ballydoyle whose representative Queenstown was second but to Arrow Eagle whose unsurprisingly showed the best turn of foot at the end of a steadily-run race (last 600m was 35.42) having finished sixth in the Arc when last seen.

On a good day for British and Irish-trained horses, La Isla Mujeres made all in the Prix Belle de Nuit as did Sparks Fly in the Prix Perth, the latter running on far too strongly for some dubious stayers in what was a glorious return to form and a career highlight for jockey Laura Pearson, while Light The Ghost took a big step forward when winning the Prix de Flore and left the impression she’ll do even better upped to 2400m given the manner of her victory and her pedigree which features two Arc winners in her top line.

Testing conditions at Newbury but performances of note

Newbury’s two-day Horris Hill meeting was run in very testing conditions. Shipbourne, a colt by Frankel out of dual Guineas winner Special Duty, earned himself a Timeform large P in the second division of the six-and-a-half maiden but his overall timefigure wasn’t outstanding – just 77 – and even upgrades close to the finish suggest his overall timerating couldn’t be made much higher than 85 and a more promising start on the clock was made by his stable-companion Gonna Fly who won the round-course novice over a mile by two-and-a-quarter lengths with five back to the third in a smart 92 timefigure.

The following day the Horris Hill went as the market expected with Time To Turn leaving his modest effort in the Jean-Luc Lagardere behind him, looking much more like the colt who’d won a listed race at Ascot back in June in good style, but a 94 timefigure in conditions he looked very much at home in isn’t much to get excited about, even with a 4lb sectional upgrade tagged on for the acceleration he showed late on.

Earlier in the afternoon, Leading Dancer had won the listed contest in an ordinary 81 (no upgrade to speak of) but both divisions of the novice were fought out by useful prospects with newcomers My Ophelia and Earth Shot earning overall timeratings in the low 90s after upgrades are factored in in the first division and A La Prochaine and Gone By earning similar upgrades in the second division at the end of the card that was hit by some rain.

I mentioned last week that I’d write a few lines about an angle that doesn’t get much coverage in the racing media but with so much going on this last weekend I’ll hold those thoughts over till next week when the focus of this column will move towards the action over the sticks. It’s an angle that holds good for 52 weeks a year, so you won’t miss out!

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