Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

If there was one major takeaway for me from the weekend’s action just gone, it wasn’t the Arc picture being turned upside down after defeats for ante-post favourite Kalpana and joint-second favourite Whirl but pre-meeting official going descriptions once again being unacceptably wide of the mark.

Conditions weren’t just a little bit quicker than had been suggested, either, but significantly quicker with unsurprising ramifications for several high-profile contestants who might have been expecting something different altogether.

Underfoot conditions wouldn’t have affected Kalpana, of course, who had won the September Stakes at Kempton in 2024 by almost five lengths on her way to success in the Fillies’ and Mares’ on Champions Day, but there’s a good chance they caught out Whirl, whose three previous wins this season had all come on good or softer ground and whose only previous appearance on good to firm ground had resulted in her lowest Timeform performance rating of her career, in the Prix Vermeille.

Fast time in draw-dependant Sprint Cup

Conditions at Haydock and ParisLongchamp were so fast the previous fastest-time records this century for both the Sprint Cup and the Prix du Moulin were smashed.

The British venue started off on Thursday on ground they called ‘good, good to soft in places’ and ended on Saturday on ground they called 'good' but which Timeform progressed from 'good' on Thursday to 'good to firm' by Saturday when, had they been less charitable, they could easily have called the ground ‘firm’.

Lord Allen presumably has more pressing issues in his in-tray than incorrect official going descriptions but if anything the situation seems to me to be getting increasingly out of control.

Not only was Haydock’s version of the ground significant out but they also managed to produce conditions on Saturday that heavily favoured those who stayed close to the stands' rail – as suggested by their own going stick readings – rendering the Betfair Sprint Cup much less competitive than it ought to have been.

The first four home were the quartet that raced closest to the rail with Big Mojo breaking his Group One duck that his second-placed effort in the July Cup had suggested was going to happen sooner rather than later anyway, 2024 runner-up Kind Of Blue in second confirming last year’s placings in the Champions Sprint with Flora Of Bermuda, while Rage Of Bamby took advantage of her good draw to run into an unexpected fourth place.

The winning time – over half a second faster than the next quickest renewal this century, Minzaal’s in 2021 – translates into a winning timefigure of 115 which stacks up well with a median of their collective bests (Kind Of Blue and Flora Of Bermuda producing theirs on much slower surfaces) and suggests the result, at least amongst those that raced closest to the rail, is not far from being the ‘right one’.

That said, Lazzat, who had Flora Of Bermuda three-and-a-half lengths back in third when winning the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Ascot, Inisherin, who’d won the Duke Of York Clipper Stakes back in May, and Commonwealth Cup winner Time For Sandals, who was forced to make her effort widest of all, would surely have had something to say about the finishing order had they raced elsewhere on the track.

French soft-ground specialist Beauvatier, who’d finished an unlucky fourth in the Champions Sprint last autumn, would surely not have travelled over had connections been aware of just how fast the track was riding.

If any further evidence was needed of the advantage the stands' rail offered, Democracy Dilemma, the winner of the following race, the long-established five-furlong Be Friendly Handicap, took almost a second off the previous best in the race this century despite initially being drawn furthest away from the rail and then having to make his way over!

Haydock’s Saturday undercard was an interesting one, or at least the first two races were, with the opening the Group Three Superior Mile going to a horse, Zeus Olympios, who was having just his third race and had won his two previous ones at Kempton (back in January) and Thirsk in August with something to spare.

Even so, this was something of a considerable step up, even if the market predicted it, but a winning time of 1m 37.90 seconds (timefigure just 88) was more a reflection of the field racing far away from the stand rail than anything less complimentary and illustrates the difficulties of returning an accurate set of timefigures when the surface speed isn’t consistent across the course.

Take your pick from Ascendant pair

More interesting, arguably, was the Listed Ascendant Stakes which saw the latest appearance of the well-touted Publish who had been pulled out of last week’s Solario Stakes on account of a soft surface.

No such issues here then on that score but he ran into a rival, Bow Echo, who was considered to be more talented than he is, at least according to the betting, and on this occasion the market got it right as Bow Echo followed up his Newbury maiden win with a length victory.

That tells only half the story, though. Dropped right out last of all from a wide draw in a modestly-run race in which Bow Echo sat third, Publish ended up passing all the field in the straight and went at least half a length up just inside the furlong pole before edging left, enabling Bow Echo to get back up.

On the face of it, the scopey Publish looked the better long-term prospect to me but he did make his ground much closer to the stand rail than anything else while Bow Echo made his effort in the centre. Take your pick...

Apart from when losing a lot of ground at the start and never getting involved in the July Cup, Flora Of Bermuda has been a model of consistency at the top level this season, finishing in the top three in two Group One events and a Group Two.

That probably won’t be any consolation to her trainer Andrew Balding whose Kalpana is also proving hard to win with despite producing her fourth Timeform effort of 115 or higher this season when beaten a length and a half in the September Stakes by Giavellotto.

The pace was an honest one unlike her 2024 breeze with Giavellotto’s winning timefigure coming in at 111, but that’s a level she has achieved before even before the 3lb she was receiving from the winner is taken into account and it seemed to me she had no obvious excuse, clearly below her best given the horse who chased her home and lost no ground on her in the straight was Meydaan who has run only once near this level this season and hasn’t won himself since May 2024.

This was a long way from an Arc-winning performance and perhaps getting a 5lb beating off Calandagan in the King George at Ascot, a 6lb beating off Los Angeles in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and coming out the same horse at the weights as Whirl in the Pretty Polly were never really performances worthy of an Arc favourite after all.

What did we learn in France?

Los Angeles and Whirl were in action at Longchamp on Sunday on a cracking card where Rosallion’s defeat in the Prix du Moulin must have caused his trainer Richard Hannon to once again tear out much of what diminishing hair he has left.

Drawn wide with only one outside of him, his usual rider Sean Levey was never going to do anything other than what he normally does and ride him from midfield or further back, but the topography of the round mile at Longchamp, even on the outer ‘Grande Piste’ is sharp and turning and Levey, once again, just found himself too far back despite running each of the last five 200m sections faster than the winner according to the official tracking data.

The winner Sahlan, an improving three-year-old with a proven turn of foot, ran the second fastest last 600m with third-placed The Lion In Winter doing next best both in terms of placing and finishing sectionals despite once again carrying his head awkwardly.

His stable-companion Henri Matisse once again did little for the Field Of Gold form, for the second race in succession looking some way inferior to Rosallion, while Quddwah was perhaps the one horse in the race who was most inconvenienced by the unexpectedly fast ground.

Another done no favours by the fast ground was Almaqam.

Ed Walker has said several times that the direction his stable star would take would be defined by the ground, but for the second race in a row the Lambourn trainer has been wrong-footed by incorrect official forecasts after Almaqam laboured into second place in the Sky Bet York Stakes on ground that York called ‘Good, good to soft in places) but which Timeform called ‘good to firm’.

In an indication that some British trainers still haven’t got fully to grips with French going stick readings or descriptions, Walker had said ahead of the Prix Foy that he was looking forward to running his horse again on "proper soft ground" only for the race to end up being run in the third fastest time this century.

Almaqam ran better than he had at York, arguably helped to some extent by the longer trip, but he was outpaced easily enough by the Japanese-trained winner Byzantine Dream (whose rider Oisin Murphy afterwards stressed needs fast ground) as well as Sosie, who ran a perfectly respectable Arc trial having been given a rest since his Coral-Eclipse flop.

Los Angeles had no excuses and neither did two-time winner Iresine apart from age catching up with him, though Map Of Stars was another who would have found the ground far too quick.

With Whirl running well below her best, French Oaks winner Gezora looking slightly ill-at-ease on the ground and Bedtime Story once again given a lot to do, I’m not sure Aventure advanced her own Arc credentials much.

She’s beaten Survie (fourth here) convincingly every time the pair have met since the 2024 French Oaks and she did so again here by over three lengths more despite covering at least another length according to the tracking data, a line of form which that also casts some doubt over the merit of Whirl’s defeat of Kalapana in the Pretty Polly where Survie was not far away in third in a race subsequent Irish Oaks second Wemightakedlongway would have finished on their heels had she not been set so much to do.

The Prix Niel (restricted to three-year-olds) looked a competitive renewal if not a vintage one beforehand and that’s pretty much how it played out too. The steady pace allowed doubtful stayer Bay City Roller to hang on for second place at big odds behind Cualificar who showed a surprising turn of foot to get himself out of a pocket to win by three quarters of a length.

In the circumstances, I thought Grand Prix de Paris winner Leffard shaped as well as any, running the fastest last 600m from a rear position, but I’m not convinced the middle-distance three-year-olds are up to scratch.

Indeed, the best piece of middle-distance form relevant to the Arc for me still remains Jan Brueghel’s defeat of Calandagan in the Coronation Cup but he is now out to 66/1 and has barely been talked about as an Arc candidate since. It seems I’m missing something, so perhaps one of the lads will give me a call and let me know what it is.

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