Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis of Jango Baie and Gaelic Warrior

The proliferation of sectional timing information over jumps that has made its way into Timeform headquarters over the last few months, which is undergoing testing and analysing with the intention of producing a more accurate and comprehensive model than the one that saw the light of day briefly before Covid hit, has uncovered several interesting observations as well as horses who would gone into my proverbial notebook had that data been available at the time.

While I was poring over more of the data again last week, particularly in respect of how high sectional upgrades might have hoisted a horse’s an overall timerating not only above its raw timefigure but also its performance rating, I was taken with how often Jango Baie’s name kept cropping up.

Before going novice chasing last season, his best timefigure as a novice hurdler was 145 at Aintree on his final start, a figure that provisional upgrades from two furlongs out would have elevated to 153.

Since going chasing, however, those late bursts he is becoming known for would have elevated his timefigures over fences had they been in place from 144 to 153 (Cheltenham, December 2024), 132 to 154 (Sandown January 2025), 158 to 163 (Cheltenham, 2025 Arkle) and 141 to 158 (Aintree, 2025 Manifesto).

Gidleigh Park, who beat him a short head at Aintree, only came away from that contest with a combined 153 timerating on the back of a more efficient ride, and judging by the way Jango Baie dismissed him with ease in the Ladbrokes 1965 Chase at Ascot last Saturday, very strong at the finish on his way to a nine-length victory in a career-best 164 timefigure that overall timeratings suggest could be as high as 170 (Gidleigh Park came out at a solid 155 on several bits of data), it looks as though as he has improved a chunk again this season.

Unsurprisingly, Jango Baie is trading around 3/1 for the King George and 170 would be good enough to just about have won (or been just touched off if not) every King George in the last eight years.

How he comes out of the race, his first since a wind operation and a screw inserted in his leg, remains to be seen but if his trainer Nicky Henderson sticks to his guns and steps him up to three miles, something he’s not always inclined to do with his younger horses while they are still on an upward curve, which puts me off an ante-post bet, then he’s surely got to go close at Kempton.

How good was the John Durkan?

If the betting is correct, the main horse standing in his way at Kempton is Gaelic Warrior, who shortened into favouritism for that race after winning the John Durkan at Punchestown.

Unlike it did several other media commentators, the John Durkan struck me as a wholly unsatisfactory affair. Sure it contained the most recent winners of the Gold Cup (Inothewayurthinkin), Ryanair Chase (Fact To File), Aintree Bowl (Gaelic Warrior) and Brown Advisory (Lecky Watson), besides 2024 Grand National winner I Am Maximus, 2025 Grand National third Grangeclare West, Ryanair runner-up Heart Wood, not forgetting Fastorslow, the one horse who has beaten the absent Galopin Des Champs with any regularity.

Sure it provided an exciting finish too, with just a neck separating Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File at the end of almost two-and-a-half miles after the latter had clawed back a hefty deficit and even edged ahead briefly after the final fence; and yes the timefigures for the first two were both 170 which is a career best for Gaelic Warrior and a near career-best for Fact To File. But other than that the race had all the hallmarks not of an ultra-competitive Grade 1 event in its own right as it should have been but instead one of those all too common unsatisfactory Irish maiden hurdles or beginners chases where most of the field try and get as far behind as possible as soon as possible.

Sectional data reveals that Fact To File ran seven of the last eight furlongs faster than Gaelic Warrior but not the final one after the effort of making up that ground told; he’d be the one I would take out of the race if I didn't know he was a top-class chaser already, for me probably the best chaser in training right now.

Up at Haydock, victory in the feature Betfair Chase went the way of Grey Dawning (130 timefigure) who might be expected after that win to be a candidate for the King George too, but has been ruled out of that contest as he can’t go right-handed apparently despite winning at Kempton in his days as a hurdler.

Grey Dawning was pulled up in the King George last year after finishing second to Royale Pagaille in a heavy-ground attritional Betfair Chase but he was able to reverse the placings this year on less testing ground having also been given a much more patient ride. He’ll reportedly now head for the Gold Cup (for which he wouldn’t be a certain stayer for me) after one more run.

The Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase he won back in 2023 on the same card saw a clash this year between last year’s Kauto Star winner The Jukebox Man, back from injury, and last season’s Grand National fourth Iroko.

Given an easy time out in front, as he has been in all his last five races, the first two of which were over hurdles, The Jukebox Man always had things under control in a race in which the timefigure was just 60 but back in second, as he had been last year behind Trelawne, Iroko shaped with tremendous promise I thought considering not only the inadequate trip but the sedate pace as he ended up running the last furlong a length faster and will presumably now be campaigned with his 2026 Grand National mark in mind. Understandable, but I can’t help feeling that’s a waste of a talented horse.

Elsewhere on what was a very informative week there were plenty of clues if you dug deep enough. For the second week in succession, partly because of the postponement of Navan’s earlier two-day fixture, we had some quality racing on a Monday, though it wasn’t as enlightening as it might have been from a timing perspective given low sun resulted in the omission of all the fences in the back straight at Exeter.

That's where 2025 Triumph Hurdle runner-up Lulamba made a winning reappearance in a surprisingly well-contested beginners chase and sectional times ended up being unavailable from Navan where not only did 2025 Supreme winner Kopek Des Bordes also make a winning reappearance over fences but smart horses Found A Fifty and Colonel Mustard were also on the scoresheet.

Lulamba was awarded the Timeform large P after jumping whatever fences were left slickly enough on his way to 10-length win in a 140 timefigure and he was much better in that respect than Kopek Des Bordes who guessed at a few in a steadily-run contest (timefigure just 83) that saw him draw clear effortlessly from some obviously inferior opposition between the last two fences.

One other potential top novice in his division also on show at Exeter was Harry Lowes, who also earned a large P after a taking debut in the opening novice hurdle over an extended two miles. He’s a horse who scored highly on my Irish point to point ratings from last season, earning his figure when winning (and already in the ownership of J.P McManus) at Quakerstown which is an undulating course with a stiff climb as the runners head away from the winning post and down the back straight.

A Timeform rating of 118 that includes 11lb for ease of victory and a timefigure of 80 only puts him in and amongst plenty of other promising novices right now but he already looks on target to me for the Baring Bingham, a race the same connections won last year of course with The New Lion.

There was another promising recruit from the Irish point field running on Thursday in the shape of Cristal d’Estuval who beat a trio of bumper winners in Baron Noir (scored at the Punchestown Festival), Bossman Jack and Loaded And Locked.

His purchase price and plenty more besides attracted plenty of comment on social media and is a topic I’ll be writing about in an occasional column this weekend concentrating on Irish points but suffice to say whatever you think of what he cost - £400,000 - he more than justified the high rating he’d got from me in points with an impressive round of hurdling once he’d got over the first, starting to go clear again come the line which he passed in a timefigure of 109.

Timeform gave him a rating of 117p on the limited data available, but his Irish point form tells me he’s a lot better than that and is another who might end up being Baring Bingham bound.

Over at Wincanton a 114 timefigure was right up there with what Timeform rated second-start chaser Authoceltic in the novice chase but given how he powered home from two furlongs out, running that section much faster than the pair that chased him home, sectional upgrades suggested he’s worth another 8lb over and above the result; a 6lb ride in his mark to 114 won’t stop him winning again.

Four more for the trackers

A few other horses I’d say are worth keeping an eye on from the lesser races last week are Kykorock, Fortune De Mer, Le Frimeur and Ben Solo.

Kykorock and Fortune De Mer are both with Dan Skelton and the former, who was a point to point winner at Larkhill before starting out over hurdles, got on top late to make a winning chasing debut at Warwick over two miles.

In view of his overall sectionals, which compare more than favourably with Excelero who won the opener over the same distance off a mark 21lb higher despite carrying 9lb less, Kykorock is clearly on a mark he can run up a sequence off, especially when put back over two-and-a-half miles, and Skelton must be chuckling his head off with the paltry 6lb rise the horse has been given.

Fortune De Mer might be the type he targets at a good-quality handicap hurdle. Ridden to poke his head on the line, sectionals suggest he should have won comfortably instead of being left with a lot to do and a 1lb rise for that effort looks more than fair.

Haiti Couleurs might not have turned up in the Betfair Chase but Rebecca Curtis looks to have a very good prospect to me in Ben Solo who won at Chepstow over two-and-a-half miles, jumping really well and keeping on strongly to score in a 115 timefigure, upgraded to 133 after sectionals are incorporated, so a 6lb rise in his mark to 123 ought to be chicken feed.

What was impressive about his performance too was his striding profile over last half mile. Nearly all horses over fences end up taking more strides per furlong as the race comes to a climax and tiredness kicks in but his was increasing, suggesting not only did he have plenty left at the line but that three miles, a trip he has yet to tackle, will be right up his street.

Le Frimeur, also a winner in points and trained by Harry Durham, scored in a 111 timefigure on the same card but is arguably worth more like 128 when sectionals are incorporated.

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