Graeme North timefigure analysis of Sun Goddess

Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis including Sun Goddess and Desert Castle


Our timefigure expert Graeme North analyses the key action from the Betfred St Leger meeting and Irish Champions Festival.


Which week offers the highest-quality week Flat racing in Britain and Ireland?

Well, I suppose it depends upon your interpretation of ‘highest-quality week’. In terms of sheer numbers of Group races across Britain and Ireland, the answer is Royal Ascot week and St Leger/Irish Champions week with, this year at least, 19 Group races apiece. The concentration of Group races is highest in St Leger week, however, with those 19 contained within (this year) 32 less races than in Royal Ascot week.

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In terms of winning Timeform ratings greater of equal to 100, however, Goodwood week produced by far the most, four more than Royal Ascot and York Ebor weeks and six more than St Leger week. Whatever, last week was one of the best all year and I’ll crack on with Doncaster where the opening day on Thursday hosted two pattern events, the Park Hill Stakes and the May Hill, both sponsored by Betfred.

The May Hill was easily the faster of the two, its winner Musical Times returning a timefigure of 109 compared to Waardah’s 85 in the Park Hill. A 109 timefigure is the May Hill’s highest since Certify in 2012 and a seven-and-a-half length winning distance is easily the widest this century in a race usually decided by small margins.

Unsurprisingly given those figures, she produced a high-quality performance in extending her winning run to three and her timefigure was briefly the best by a juvenile filly all season until its previous holder Sun Goddess reclaimed the title after her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes three days later.

Looking right out of the top drawer after a ten-week break, Musical Times relished the step up to a mile and on pedigree will stay further, and in the short term looks the one to beat in the Fillies’ Mile, a race both recent May Hill winners Inspiral and Desert Flower also went on to win.

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Friday’s two Group races at Doncaster were the Flying Childers and the Doncaster Cup and they produced extremes with Final Objective winning the former in 104, the fastest on the card, and Caballo De Mar winning the latter in the slowest, just 47.

What looked no more than an average Flying Childers running on paper proved as much with less than a length covering the first six with the favourite, who’d been second in the Gimcrack, edging it close home dropped to the minimum trip.

If anything, the Doncaster Cup was a substandard running with Scandinavia, Trawlerman and Sweet William all missing, and high-end handicappers completed the places behind the winner who was the clear form pick but needed the tonic of more severe headgear as well as a tongue strap to perk him up. He’ll presumably head back to France for the Prix du Cadran.

Caballo De Mer comes home at Doncaster
Caballo De Mer comes home at Doncaster

Saturday’s card saw the first double-figure field for the Betfred St Leger since 2021, albeit one which had a feel of quantity over quality, even with the Derby winner in the field, just two others having won a pattern race this season and lacking the Arc-bound Sky Bet Great Voltigeur winner Maltese Cross.

With usual sacrificial lamb Action in there as a pacemaker (interestingly, the brand-new World Athletics championship, the ‘Ultimate’, the same weekend prohibited designated pacemakers) the race was well run, producing a winning timefigure of 117, 2lb less than the Timeform rating he was credited with.

For all Highwayman has a somewhat odd profile for a Classic winner, refused a mark after a trio of runs in maidens before going on an unbeaten spree upped markedly in trip, he powered through the line as if he’ll stay all day and already seems the biggest threat to Scandinavia's Gold Cup crown next season.

His win is sure to be remembered first and foremost for providing Saffie Osborne with a first win for a female jockey in a British Classic. Osborne might be up and coming but it’s a sobering thought for her that she’s still a long way to go to become a Group race regular with 39 other jockeys having had more rides in Group races in Britain and Ireland this season than she has.

Saffie Osborne with the Leger trophy
Saffie Osborne with the Leger trophy

She didn’t have a ride in either of the other two Group races on the card, the Champagne Stakes or the Park Stakes, and the one she did have in the only Group race run on Sunday, the Sceptre Stakes, was a 50/1 shot having been replaced as runner-up Touleen’s regular rider after getting into plenty of trouble when a fast-finishing second to Precise in the Coronation Stakes.

The Park Stakes has lost little in quality despite the recent upgrading of the Sky Bet City of York to Group 1 status and this year’s renewal was another excellent edition. With the eventual third setting a good gallop the race was teed up for a good timefigure and More Thunder, who was back down at seven furlongs for the first time this season, was able to show his class in running down one with an excellent record in similar company, posting a 114 figure to which can be added another 4lb sectional upgrade.

The Champagne revolved around the once-raced Desert Castle, who'd created quite an impression on debut and he looked something out of the top drawer once again, turning in a performance of a similar merit in the race to Too Darn Hot and Chaldean in the last decade, both of whom followed up in the Dewhurst.

An imposing, grand-looking sort, he cruised into contention over two furlongs out soon quickened three lengths clear then hung left. If anything, though, the time was slightly disappointing with the timefigure coming in at just 95, though he at least earned a 4lb bigger upgrade than either of the two horses in the places behind him.

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Across at Leopardstown on Saturday there were five Group races, three of which were Group 1s. The highest Timeform rating awarded in those three went to the Irish Champion Stakes winner Hotazhell, and he also recorded the highest timefigure at the meeting too, 121.

Most of the pre-race talk centred around Juddmonte International one-two-three Item, Almaqam and Constitution River but of the three only Constitution River showed something like his best on the day, even leading with over a furlong to go but unable to hold off either the winner or Wimbledon Hawkeye (who’d finished just behind Hotazhell in Germany last time) with Ryan Moore subsequently reporting he hung left throughout.

Item hasn’t proven particularly consistent this season but it’s tough to think of a more consistent top-level horse than his stablemate Blue Bolt who continues to sweep all before her in the races she contests, this victory providing trainer Andrew Balding with his first top-level success in Ireland in the Matron Stakes.

The pace was fair and there were no hard-luck stories, for all neither of the O’Brien pair Precise and True Love showed anything like their best form on the day with Fallen Angel looking too a lesser version of her former self, and Blue Bolt wasn’t hard pressed to score in a 103 timefigure.

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Whether Ireland needs another Group 1 race for juveniles is up for debate but even so there was a familiar feel to the outcome of the HKJC World Pool Golden Fleece Stakes, Aidan O'Brien having won three of the last four renewals when it was a Group 2, and he did so again with the heavily-supported favourite, Darkness Falls who looked one of the best seen out in the division so far this year, landing a strongly-run race by over four lengths in a smart 107 timefigure.

Two of his recent winners, Auguste Rodin and Benvenuto Cellini, have gone to win Derbies and being by Camelot, Darkness Falls will surely have those races on his agenda too. The other Group races on the card, the Solonaway Stakes and the Kilternan Stakes, were both steadily run; Quddwah won the former in 83 and Arabian Crown the latter in 65.

There were even more Group 1 races at the Curragh on Sunday than there were at Leopardstown, and though there was nothing to split Flying Five winner Comanche Brave and Irish St Leger winner Scandinavia on Timeform ratings, the Flying Five winner fared slightly better on time than Scandinavia did, posting a 119 compared to the latter’s 114 on a day when figures weren’t entirely straightforward to return.

I wouldn’t be viewing Comanche Brave’s win as a further boost to Ka Ying Rising’s dominance at the top of the world sprint rankings given he is a vastly superior model to the one out in the Far East earlier in the season.

On top of that, the task that usually confronts European runners at sprint distances at Sha Tin can’t be understated (since 2010, Britain and Ireland have run 20 horses at Sha Tin at five or six furlongs and only Sole Power (back in 2012) of those has reached the frame) but Comanche Brave is clearly the best in Ireland and probably better over five than six.

Scandinavia didn't need to reach either his Ascot or Goodwood heights to extend his winning sequence towards double figures, typically more workmanlike than flashy, and he’s clearly the one to beat in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot next month.

Scandinavia has the measure of Queenstown
Scandinavia has the measure of Queenstown

The two Group 1 races for juveniles over seven were both well run and both produced smart timefigures. As mentioned earlier, the Moyglare Stud saw Sun Goddess go back to the top of the juvenile fillies on time with 111 but an 11lb sectional upgrade (6lb more than the runner-up Green Empress and 11lb more than the third-placed Dancing Destiny) takes her overall timerating to an outstanding 122.

Sun Goddess had prior form with Folsom Blues, the pair having finished first and second in the Phoenix Stakes, and that form was franked when the colt landed the Vincent O’Brien Goffs National Stakes later in the afternoon.

A similar setup to the earlier Group 1 for fillies saw a strong pace and Folsom Blues took his own form up a considerable amount in going one better than in the Phoenix in some style, a 112 timefigure inching up to 115 overall when sectional upgrades are included.

Joey Sheridan celebrates Folsom Blues' National Stakes win
Joey Sheridan celebrates Folsom Blues' National Stakes win

Joseph O’Brien, who has had such a stellar breakthrough season, was also on the mark in the other Group race on the card, the Blandford Stakes, with Oaks winner Thundering On.

The form of the Oaks hadn’t really stood up and Thundering On was below form herself on faster ground subsequently in the Pretty Polly but back from a three-month break she put herself back in the Arc picture, left with a lot to do under a confident ride before putting in a sustained burst to pass most of the field in the straight, a small sectional upgrade boosting her 113 timefigure to 115.


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