Graeme North reveals what the clock told us about the weekend's action and highlights a horse to have on your radar for the Cheltenham Festival
Courses for horses? Or horses for courses? I was reminded of what best constitutes that subtle distinction after watching Pic d’Orhy win his second successive Betfair Ascot Chase to give his trainer Paul Nicholls a belated first Grade 1 win of an underwhelming season. It’s fair to say plenty of horses who might be pigeon-holed as ‘course specialists’ are anything but; they owe their prominent course status to factors that carry greater weight such as outlier geographical location and opportunity (cards at Ayr and Hamilton on the Flat, for example, two completely different circuits, have evolved steadily over the years to provide more and more opportunities for the mostly low-grade local horse population who rarely venture south of the Border).
Those same influences are no less prevalent over jumps; of the five horses who have won more than five races at the same venue since the start of 2020, no fewer than four of them have come in Scotland. Ardera Cross has scored eight times at Ayr, Pammi has won seven times at Perth, Minella Trump and Bollingerandkrug have scored six times at Perth and Kelso respectively with Clearance (six wins at Newton Abbot) the sole thoroughbred to fly the flag south of the Border.
Of the 21 horses to have won five times at one jumps venue in the period under review, Pic d’Orhy is the only one to have achieved his quintet at Ascot. He’s also won twice at Kempton as well as once each at Ffos Las, Aintree, Huntingdon and Newton Abbot, all of which lend themselves kindly to his strong-travelling front-running style and none of which could be described more widely as either stiff or undulating, and it’s clearly significant he’s never run at Cheltenham. Lacking an entry there this year too, he seems likely to be seen out next at Aintree where he scored in Grade 1 company as a novice in 2022 but has been pulled up in both starts there since. So how good was Saturday’s performance (replay below)?
Unlimited Replays
of all UK and Irish races with our Race Replays
Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits
Well, as ever, that depends. If your preferred approach to assessing racehorse performance is to use something not far differentiated from a weights and measures slant then a ten-length defeat of Corbetts Cross with Blue Lord nearly three lengths further behind in a race that ‘typically’ throws up a race-winning performance in the low-160s might suggest Pic d’Orhy ran above that figure, for all he was slammed himself to the tune of 16 lengths in the 2023 version by Shishkin.
The clock doesn’t rate him quite so highly. Timeform awarded him 159 with no upgrade, below the figures he achieved in both the 2023 Melling Chase, when he beat Fakir d’Oudairies, and the 2024 Silviniaco Conti at Kempton when he was beaten nearly two lengths by Banbridge to whom he was conceding 3lb. But breaking that overall time down into smaller sections suggests even that figure for a never-challenged defeat of a horse (Corbett’s Cross) for whom a further three-furlong drop in trip was an obvious red flag beforehand, with all of the other four having questions to answer, could easily be on the high side.
After all, a final circuit time slower than The Changing Man (who spent just as much time running a solo in front as Pic d’Orhy and would have run even quicker had his rider not eased down from the second last after running a fast section between three out and two out that rubber stamped his authority) managed over three furlongs further isn’t persuasive evidence to me that his performance is as good as the sum of its parts appear. He’ll have to do a good bit better for me if he’s to follow up at Aintree.
Whatever happens at Aintree, Nicholls admitted to plenty of relief after his win at the end of a week in which he revealed that he would be tweaking his horse acquisition policy. It’s not as if Nicholls, who has plenty of the most expensively-acquired bloodstock in the country residing at Ditcheat Stables, has been dealt a bad hand in recent years as some of the cheerleading media articles seem to have implied; after all, since the start of 2020 he has saddled 19 separate horses who went to post with a pre-race Timeform rating of 160 or more which is eight more than Nicky Henderson has had in the same period if not as many as Irish superpowers Willie Mullins (49) or Gordon Elliott (20). Even if restricting the qualifying period to the start of 2024 he still has better numbers than any other domestic trainer.
I’ve no association with the stable at all or their acquisition policy but I wrote before Christmas that having kept my own Irish point-to-point ratings for many seasons the quality isn’t there that was apparent in that sphere even a couple of seasons ago. Not that that situation would be obviously apparent to anyone who treats form as secondary, with the latest campaign being even weaker than the last. That might act as a warning to the upwardly-mobile Rebecca Menzies who expressed an intention several days ago to prioritise ‘getting ahead’ in the Irish point-to-point scene as a fast source of classy future acquisitions. As some owners will testify lately, however, spending 300,000 euros or £300,000 has proved to be a costly exercise to find the seemingly promising once-raced winner or second they bought isn’t much if anything out of the ordinary.
Ascot’s meeting was something of a get-together for course winners as the premier handicap chase, the Betfair Swinley, went to Victtorino who was winning his fourth race at the track since the start of 2020, while hurdle winners Altobelli and First Confession were both winning there for the second time this season.
Victtorino posted a 146 timefigure in getting the better of Grand National entry Threeunderthrufive, demonstrating once again the advantage a ground-saving rail-hugging ride brings around Ascot. That was in contrast to the wide path taken once again by a horse this column has mentioned several times before, Terresita, who almost certainly ran a career best again as she maintained her upward profile.
Altobelli ran a 118 on the clock as he sprinted clear between the last two, having no trouble conceding weight all round, though runner-up Joyeux Machin, who only just over two years ago when with Paul Nolan was sent off 4/1 second favourite for the Challow Hurdle, is likely to be fully primed for a Cheltenham handicap, while First Confession ran an even slower 50 in a race run at a dawdle.
The Changing Man, whose overall timefigure over the same course and distance as Victtorino was just 108, ran the last circuit five lengths faster than Victtorino and would entitle him to a last-circuit rating of 149 after adjustments for weight differences are taken into account; relative to Pic d’Orhy, after a further minor adjustment is made for the different overall race distances, his final circuit comparative time comes in even higher. The Changing Man, remember, split Victtorino and Threeunderthrufive at Ascot before Christmas when in receipt of significant weight from both but this effort suggests to me he’s improved in the eight weeks since and if connections choose to target the Ultima will be hard to keep out of the frame.
Down at Wincanton, the Kingwell Hurdle appeared to end any lingering faint Champion Hurdle claims Burdett Road might have had as he was beaten by Golden Ace. The winner, who attracted strong late support, was back on ‘home turf’ at a track her trainer does well at and knows how to give instructions to ride to best advantage seeing as his winners over hurdles worked hard to secure the best positions against the rail, and scored in a career-best 140 timefigure. That’s well below the level that would normally be required in a regulation Champion Hurdle, but several lines of collateral form suggest she could plausibly be rated a minimum of 151 which would put her on the fringe of the Champion Hurdle picture if she could replicate that now her stable is in better health than for a while.
Back in the day, the ‘Grand National Trial’ meeting at Haydock might have unearthed a few clues for the Aintree marathon in April but, much as is the case with the Eider Chase nowadays, those days are long gone for all the first two Famous Bridge and Apple Away are still engaged. The Graded events, the WKD Rendlesham Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices’ Hurdle, went to Gwennie May Boy and Battle Born Lad in timefigures of 131 and 78 respectively. The latter contest was about as far from Graded quality as it’s possible to get, but in the Rendlesham Gwennie May Boy, a winner at Aintree last year, at least had a couple of opponents of decent if not top quality to beat in the shape of Beauport and Botox Has, for all neither were anywhere near their best on the day. Beauport is another high-profile inmate from the Twiston-Davies yard to have a hole struck into his spring Festival pretensions in recent weeks.
It was equally hard to get enthused by the Graded action on show at Gowran. The Grade 3 Red Mills Trial Hurdle over two miles was typical of so many races in Ireland of this type below the top level, a ragbag of horses either running at a trip well away from their best or on the downgrade up against a small group of younger sorts not all of whom were serious contenders. The winner, Kitzbuhel, appeared to win readily enough but given his timefigure was only 101 he might have been expected to have won a bit more impressively.
Only three went to post in the Red Mills Chase with the pair trained by Willie Mullins, Classic Getaway and Saint Sam, filling the first two places at the end of a well-run race in which the winning timefigure Timeform returned was 153. Bizarrely that’s the first timefigure the winner has returned since 2023 having either failed to complete or been kept to courses from which Timeform doesn’t return timefigures and would suggest he’s as good as ever, for all his efforts in handicaps in that intervening period haven’t been convincing.
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
