Warwick & Kempton tips: Best value bets and preview for Saturday January 13
There are some cracking handicaps at Warwick and Kempton this weekend and Matt Brocklebank looks to unearth the value on offer.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, January 13
1pt win Samuel Spade in 2.42 Kempton at 16/1 (General)
1pt win King Alexander in 2.42 Kempton at 9/1 (General)
1pt win City Chief in 3.00 Warwick at 11/1 (William Hill, Unibet)
1pt win Nestor Park in 3.35 Warwick at 22/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
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January jumps racing clearly isn't to everyone’s taste but – Warwick's two-runner novice chase aside – there’s plenty of competitive action to get stuck into on Saturday and the Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase is a worthy feature.
Gavin Cromwell's mare Malina Girl tops the shop and her jockey Conor Stone-Walsh will be keen to set the record straight after they departed when still bang in contention at Cheltenham last month.
Malina Girl had won doing handstands there during the November Meeting (under Sean Flanagan) and it didn’t appear the subsequent 11lb hike in the weights was going to prove too much of an anchor before her fall three fences from the finish last time.
Warwick's jumping test, featuring five fences that come in quite quick succession down the back straight before a tight turn for home, represents a very different challenge, however, and her come-from-behind style may not be ideally suited to such a configuration.
A high proportion of recent Classic Chase winners have been right on the speed, or at least in front rank, so I’d have some concerns over the sticky-jumping Beauport too, despite the over-riding impression that he’s probably a well-handicapped horse once it all clicks into place.
Galia Des Liteaux has the distinct look of a long-term plot horse, Dan Skelton’s mare making her handicap debut here – just down the road from the yard – and fitted with first-time cheekpieces which the trainer has deployed with plenty of success in the past. She’s also likely to be there or thereabouts from the off under Harry Skelton, with the step up in trip another potential factor to help eke out further improvement.
If punters are willing to write off the low-key run on very testing ground in a small field at Newbury last month, then Galia Des Liteaux’s chances become obvious, but it was hardly the ideal prep and I think we need to be a touch more discerning when considering backing Galia Des Liteaux at a single-figure price.
At 10/1 or bigger, I prefer the case for CITY CHIEF, who has done all of his winning under Rules during the months of January, February, March and April to this point. With that in mind, I’m willing to put the two pre-Christmas outings as fact-finding missions, with trainer Nicky Henderson nominating the Grand National as his long-term goal right at the start of the season.
Aintree suddenly seems a longshot (he's 100/1 for National glory, to be precise) as he's slid down to a mark of 140 but that does mean he's 13lb better off with Malina Girl from their meeting at Cheltenham this season and I’m convinced he’s an out-and-out stayer who will relish this first crack at a marathon race.
Above all that, though, is the switch back to a flat track as he just doesn't seem to enjoy jumping the fences on the downhill run before the turn in at Prestbury Park (he wouldn’t be the first). It's presumably no coincidence that his chase wins have come at Hereford and Wetherby, while he won at Ayr over hurdles too, so this course could be made for the horse.
Blinkers set to perk up Park
The rescheduled Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase is a welcome addition to the Warwick card and, with Celebre D’Allen withdrawn on Friday, it's no great shock to see Ramses De Teillee has found his way towards the very top of the market.
The switch from Sandown to this track must have come as great news for David Pipe and connections as he won really well here first time out last season, and he’s only a couple of pounds higher in the weights for his belated return to action this time around.
It’s hard to pick many holes in the grey and he’ll be a fine sight under an aggressive ride in this, but he does look short enough in the betting now.
Thomas Darby beat Mill Green in the November qualifier around course and distance and both merit consideration but I’m rolling the dice with Ben Pauling’s NESTOR PARK, who has always had plenty of talent but hasn’t always been able to put it into practice.
First-time blinkers are applied this weekend which might just act as the rocket required to get this 11-year-old to show something like his best form again, and if they do then he could be in business as he’ll be much happier around here than might have been the case at Sandown had the original race gone ahead as planned.
Nestor Park won his maiden hurdle at Warwick and won over fences at Newbury in February 2022, so left-handed seems to suit best and I’m willing to ignore his poor performance (pulled-up) in last year’s Classic Chase here given the heavy ground and stamina-sapping trip.
He signed off last season with a couple of more encouraging efforts and, having resumed with a creditable enough run behind Celebre D’Allen at Aintree in October, wasn’t seen in his best light at Doncaster where all four fences in the home straight were omitted.
That race developed into a crawl and sprint scenario which is a far cry from Nestor Park will be faced with here and he’s down a couple of pounds to a mark of 132, just 2lb higher than for his last win.
The blinkers suggest that Pauling is keen to see his horse placed a little more handily than has been the case and I like the booking of Ben Jones, who is 5-18 on the chase course here over the years and 5-27 for Pauling so far this season (hurdles and chases).
Pauling power on show at Kempton
Pauling has a couple of likely candidates in Kempton’s Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle in Quinta Do Mar and SAMUEL SPADE, with the latter worth backing at current odds.
A well-regarded juvenile last season after joining from the Flat (David O’Meara), he won first time out over timber at this track before adding to his tally at Huntingdon (another right-handed, speed track) in February.
A shot at the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival proved too much too soon and his year tailed off thereafter, but he clearly stripped fitter for his comeback run as last month’s Taunton win over two miles and three furlongs was a significant career best, and one which suggested there could be a lot more to come over the intermediate trip.
He's gone up 7lb but is still 1lb lower than the initial mark he was given last year and the way he quickened before the second-last at Taunton was really striking. If Kielan Woods can keep hold of him until the turn in here then that turn of foot is going to be a dangerous weapon.
I was considering leaving it there but can’t resist a cover shot on supposed Henderson second-string KING ALEXANDER in the same race at 9/1.
The same stable obviously has market leader Impose Toi at the head of the betting but King Alexander has won his last three completed starts over hurdles, looking transformed since the February ’23 breathing operation, and the 10lb rise for his easy win at Exeter looks a real guess-up job.
You don’t see many Exeter handicaps – fences or hurdles – won in that sort of fashion and the relatively decent conditions should play into his hands as well.
His half-brother Cool Survivor ran in Grade 1s as a novice for Gordon Elliott and while that may prove to be a bit of a stretch for this horse, he’s surely still ahead of the handicapper to some degree, and if it wasn’t for the McManus-owned Impose Toi I reckon he’d be all the rage for this.
Published at 1600 GMT on 12/01/24
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