Ben Linfoot's pre-race analysis | Vertem Futurity: The Rule of One

Aidan O’Brien and the Rule of One

Aidan O’Brien is going for his 10th Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster on Saturday. That is some record in a Group One and it would make him the joint leading trainer in the race with Sir Henry Cecil.

The master of Ballydoyle had seven entries at the confirmation stage but decided to rely on just one in the end, Wembley. The son of Galileo is the clear form pick after his second place in the Group One Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket two weeks ago.

A best price of 15/8, Wembley looks very likely to go off favourite but how significant is it that O’Brien has decided to rely on one horse? For a trainer that often goes mob-handed in the best races there is a school of thought that says when he has only one runner it’s because he only needs one.

Looking through his record in the British Group One races for juveniles this is very much not the case, with one notable exception: the Vertem Futurity.

In the Cheveley Park Stakes he’s been represented by just the one runner in six renewals with only Clemmie in 2017 going back to Ireland with the win.

In the Middle Park five times he has rocked up with just the one runner and on none of those occasions has he won the race.

In the Fillies’ Mile he’s gone to war with just a sole representative 12 times and he won it with three of those fillies; Sunspangled in 1998, Listen in 2007 and Together Forever in 2014.

In the Dewhurst Stakes nine times he has gone into the race with one dart and only Air Force Blue in 2015 came away with the win.

That’s five wins from 32, not too shoddy for your average trainer considering the level of opposition, but O’Brien has never been that. For him, it’s a disappointing return, but his numbers are bolstered by his one-horse approach to the Vertem Futurity.

In this race he has gone to Doncaster with just the one runner on four occasions and he went back to Ballydoyle with the trophy three times; with Saratoga Springs in 1997, St Nicholas Abbey in 2009 and with Kingsbarns in 2012. Magritte, the other one, in 2003, was third.

When O’Brien has followed the Rule Of One in the Vertem Futurity he has a 75% strike-rate. Small data, yes, but enough to suggest the confidence behind Wembley’s sole participation in the race is as significant as you might presume.

Race might not be run to suit the Wembley way

Wembley does have the best form, we’ve established his lack of stablemate opposition could be significant and the step up to a mile looks sure to suit, judging by his running style and pedigree, too.

Clearly, he has very strong claims, but if there’s one factor that puts me off his chance at prices around 15/8 it’s the potential tempo of the race and how a steady gallop could catch him out.

The stalls are situated centrally on Saturday and recent history suggests they’ll race in one group up the centre of the track. Given what we’ve seen of Wembley so far, Ryan Moore is likely to ride a patient race with a view of his rivals from the rear.

He’s not the only hold-up merchant in the race, though, with market rivals One Ruler and King Vega also used to been ridden cold, while State Of Rest and Megallan don’t look likely to be too far in front of them.

That’s almost two-thirds of the nine-strong field that could be shunning the early lead and of those that remain only Royal Lodge third Cobh and 150/1 outsider Emperor Supreme look likely to press on in the opening exchanges.

With that in mind there’s just a nagging doubt that Wembley won’t have the instant change of gear to cope and in that scenario we could have a shock on our hands.

We’ve certainly seen similar situations play out in this race before (the wins for Casamento, Camelot and Rivet came off steady gallops), with jockeys perhaps mindful that an all-out slog over a mile is not ideal for a top juvenile at this time of year.

Baradar underestimated for Varian

Given Wembley’s solid chance it’s not a straightforward decision to take him on but, on balance, given how this could pan out, the punter in me wants to give him a swerve at the prices.

The key horse could well be Jim Bolger’s Mac Swiney, as he wasn’t able to race prominently from his wide draw in the National Stakes last time where he was outpaced, but he could revert to more positive tactics here.

A son of New Approach who is bred for a trip next year, when he kicks could be key, but he has been done for speed in a few of his races this season and that could be the case again.

BARADAR is an under-the-radar horse that has to take a leap forward on his bare form but this test could work out nicely for him and at 20/1 he looks underestimated.

He raced more prominently at York last time when winning what looked a strong novice race under a penalty in a good time and if he sits just off the leaders here he could get the run of this.

Forecast rain in the build-up to the race would be in his favour as he’s won twice on soft already and looks to enjoy this time of year, like his talented half-brother and stablemate, Roseman. That horse won a Listed race by over four lengths at Newmarket in the November of his three-year-old season before his fine run in second in last week’s QEII.

Baradar looks cut from the same cloth and his two-from-three profile is promising, especially as he shaped like the second best horse when fourth in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark race at Newbury, his only defeat, where he lost two places late on after trying to keep up with Yibir. Authorized finish third in that contest before winning this race, then the Racing Post Trophy (at Newbury that year), in 2006.

There’s not a lot between Baradar and Megallan on the Newbury evidence, but Baradar is twice the price of the John Gosden-trained colt in most places and his very participation here is interesting enough.

Roger Varian’s Rule of One is quite different to O’Brien’s, but he has had just the one runner in this race before; the 2013 winner Kingston Hill.

1-2-3 Verdict

1. BARADAR (20/1)
2. Wembley (15/8)
3. Mac Swiney (20/1)

Preview posted at 1500 BST on 23/10/2020

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