Vertem Futurity analysis: Reverting to type as Mac Swiney becomes Derby contender
Ben Linfoot unpicks the result of the final Group One of the UK Flat season as the Vertem Futurity does what it was designed to do in producing a Derby contender.
Saturday Reports
The last three Vertem Futurity Trophy winners have gone onto win the following year’s 2000 Guineas, but finding Classic-winning milers is not what this race was designed to do.
Frustrated by the lack of opportunities for the less precocious juveniles, the Timeform Gold Cup was born in 1961, the brainchild of that publisher’s founder, Phil Bull, and the new race quickly found a middle-distance Classic winner when the filly Noblesse took in the fledgling Doncaster contest before she won the Oaks in 1963.
Since then the race has taken on a few guises and it has become a good launchpad for wannabe Derby horses with Reference Point, High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized and Camelot all doing what is now the Vertem Futurity-Derby double.
Camelot, whose Epsom success came in 2011, was the last horse to win this race and the Derby, with 2017, 2018 and 2019 Futurity winners Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko (who landed his renewal on the all-weather at Newcastle) all going onto Guineas glory instead.
This year, though, it looks like the Vertem Futurity Trophy has reverted to type, as Jim Bolger’s MAC SWINEY won because of his stamina reserves in a race where such attributes ruled over raw speed.
Persistent rain saw the going altered to heavy in the build-up and the change in conditions saw star attraction Wembley, the only representative for nine-time winning trainer Aidan O’Brien, withdrawn on account of the ground.
The absence of the Dewhurst runner-up robbed the race of its best horse on form and the new top-rated contender was One Ruler, on a BHA mark of 111, so it’s hard to argue this was a vintage renewal.
That has to be factored into calculations when assessing the overall worth of the form going into next year, and when we’re looking into the potential of Mac Swiney his own career record, one that contains three defeats including an eighth and a ninth, is hardly a solid base for a Classic assault.
However, he did have excuses for his defeat in the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes last time, as he was drawn out wide that day and was poorly positioned throughout, while he was outpaced by speedier horses over seven furlongs on good ground, as well.
A mile in heavy ground at Doncaster was much more to his liking given his middle-distance pedigree and he got a lovely tow into things off One Ruler towards the stands’ side before battling on well, calling on all his experience, to see off that rival and the strong-travelling Baradar.
A son of New Approach, Bolger’s only previous Derby winner, from the family of Dewhurst and multiple 10-furlong victor Parish Hall, it’s easy to see why connections feel he’ll blossom as a three-year-old and it’s likely his Classic campaign will revolve around Epsom.
Bolger has had three Derby runners since New Approach, with none of them finishing better than 11th, but he looks to have a genuine contender on his hands in Mac Swiney, a best of 25/1 for Epsom, and it will be interesting to see the route he takes in the spring.
One Ruler gives the form a fairly solid look and he wasn’t beaten far in a three-quarters-of-a-length second.
Backed into 6/4 favourite, his chance was bolstered earlier in the day when the horse he beat in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket, Van Gogh, landed the Group One Criterium International at Saint-Cloud.
He didn’t do anything wrong here, settling nicely for William Buick in a more prominent position than he’s been accustomed to, his jockey possibly mindful of his Flying Scotsman reverse at this track when he didn’t manage to reel in New Mandate and Laneqash.
As it was he provided a great target for Mac Swiney, but he handled conditions perfectly well and had no excuses. He simply looked to be outstayed by a horse with greater stamina.
He’s been highly consistent this year, not finishing out of the first three in all five starts, and while he needs to find a leap in form if he’s to be a player at the top level he’s by Dubawi, looks sure to progress, and could improve for going up to 10 furlongs at three.
In third was Baradar, who could end up being the best of these, certainly over a mile.
He didn’t have the experience of the front two having had just three career runs beforehand, while he struggled to get cover out on the wing after breaking from stall one on the far side.
A little too keen in the early stages, he moved into the final two furlongs like the most likely winner, as in-running odds of 1.16 on the Betfair Exchange suggest, but he was outpointed in the final furlong.
A half-brother to last week’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes runner-up Roseman, he’s like his sibling in that he seems to like testing ground at this time of year, and while that might well determine how he’s campaigned next year he’s an exciting prospect.
By champion sprinter Muhaarar, he looks the best of that sire’s first two crops and while he’s inherited plenty of pace and could be at his best over a mile, there’s stamina on his dam’s side and he could stretch to a mile and a quarter.
Cobh got the run of the race out in front under Adam Kirby but he couldn’t see off the late challengers, just as he couldn’t see off New Mandate and Ontario in the Royal Lodge.
He’s another that has had a very consistent season but he has his limitations and could be tough to place next year.
State Of Rest was four lengths behind Cobh and he didn’t run as well as he did at this track when third in the Champagne Stakes last month.
It looks like he needs better ground to be at his best as he was below form on soft at Naas, as well.
Megallan and King Vega were both bitterly disappointing and respective jockeys Rab Havlin and Oisin Murphy went easy on them from a long way out.
King Vega had only previously raced on good ground so this was a bit of a culture shock for him, while Megallan was off the bridle early and didn’t look to enjoy conditions, either.
The 75-rated Emperor Supreme picked off the eased-down pair for sixth.
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