Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections for day two of Glorious Goodwood and he's throwing a dart at one at a big price in the opener.
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*Baileys Excelerate a Non Runner (Self cert - lame)
Three-year-olds have dominated the Qatar Sussex Stakes ever since it was opened up to older horses in 1975 and two colts from the Classic vintage head the market this time around on day two of Glorious Goodwood.
Without Parole is favourite after his St James’s Palace success last time out while Expert Eye is challenging for the market leader position after his own impressive Royal Ascot victory in the Jersey Stakes.
Of the two I’d prefer Without Parole as Expert Eye has something to prove over a mile, especially as he seems to need a strong gallop to produce his best form.
Without Parole looks more versatile and remains unbeaten after four starts, his best his most recent effort when he fought off Gustav Klimt at the royal meeting.
His presence puts me off an each-way bet on one of the older horses and there looks to be very little between Beat The Bank, Lightning Spear and Lord Glitters anyway.
The likely defection of So Beloved (ran in the Lennox on Tuesday) will also reduce the field to seven so it looks a race to swerve from a betting perspective.
In contrast, the Move Over To Matchbook Handicap over 1m4f at 2.25 looks a good race to have a go at and I really like the look of Mark Johnston’s BAILEYS EXCELERATE at 14/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3) here.
The market is headed by his stablemate Making Miracles at 9/2 with Ryan Moore booked, which is perfect as it has deflected attention away from Baileys Excelerate who looks underestimated.
The pair actually finished upsides each other at Royal Ascot in the King George V Stakes, when only 2lb and a neck separated them. Baileys Excelerate gets a 4lb pull with his stablemate here thanks to Making Miracles’ subsequent Haydock success and the selection ran a really good race at Ascot in the circumstances.
He likes to dominate ideally, but couldn’t do that from stall 19 in the King George V. He was shuffled back early, got trapped out wide, was then lit up as Lewis Edmunds nudged him forward and was subsequently way too keen in the early part of the race.
Still in there pitching a furlong out, it was to his great credit that he was only beaten eight lengths in eighth at the line and he can prove himself to be much better than that at Goodwood.
Previously he looked a handicapper of some potential at Haydock when punted into 6/4 favouritism on May 26, making all and pulling out plenty in the closing stages to win easily off a mark of 85.
That makes him of real interest here off 92 on just his third go at the trip and it could be significant that Silvestre de Sousa takes the ride for just the second time after previously riding him to victory in that aforementioned race at Haydock.
The son of Excelebration is entered at Goodwood on Friday as well, always a good sign with a Johnston handicapper at this meeting, and with his stablemates looking the most likely threats on the pace you would think he’ll be much more comfortable than he was in the early stages at Royal Ascot.
He looks a really strong stayer at this trip when in his comfort zone on the front end, and, at 14/1, I’m happy to double my stake on him for a good each-way bet as he looks the play of the day.
Earlier on I’m taking a speculative punt on Richard Hughes’ GREAT SOUND at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4) in the opening Matchbook Betting Podcast Goodwood Handicap (1.50) and I’m halving my win stake on this one in preference of a small each-way bet.
He’s 33/1 because he’s shown very little in three starts for Richard Hughes and there is a chance he’s a regressive horse, but I think there’s enough about him to throw a few quid his direction at a big price.
Firstly, he’s always shaped like a stout stayer and there has to be a good chance that this extended 2m4f will bring about improvement in him.
Secondly, he’s won off a 3lb higher handicap mark over 1m6f at Newbury in August last year when trained by John Gosden.
Thirdly, I say shown very little but I thought he shaped quite nicely at Salisbury last time when fourth behind Okool, only fading in the final furlong on his first start since wind surgery.
Fourthly, that was a flag-start race like this one, so I wonder if Hughes was getting him used to the scenario? Teak was third in the same Salisbury race in 2014 before winning this race at Goodwood at huge odds.
Finally, Hughes, who was a master around here as a jockey, has plenty of similarly-rated stayers he could’ve picked from for this race like Stanley and Soghan and Golden Wolf.
At 33s, there’s enough there to get the slingshot out.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +346.34pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Posted at 1700 BST on 31/07/18.