Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Free racing tips for Newbury on Super Sprint day
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot tipped July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns at 10/1 in last week's column and he tackles Newbury's Super Sprint card this Saturday.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, July 20
1pt e.w Al Kout in 2.25 Newbury at 33/1
1pt e.w Separate in 3.40 Newbury at 16/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Ventura Rebel is a key horse for punters in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury on Saturday as the Norfolk Stakes runner-up is by far the best horse on form and plenty will be tempted by the 6/4 available on Friday night.
It looks like there could be further significant rain at Newbury that will turn the ground on the soft side, but that wouldn’t bother Richard Fahey’s charge who looks to have an outstanding chance of enhancing his trainer’s excellent record in the race.
With plenty of bookies paying five places, though, an each-way wager against him looks a sensible option, as there have been a good number of horses beaten at short odds in this race when they seemingly had plenty in hand.
The one I like against the favourite is Richard Hannon’s SEPARATE at 16/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5).
The Hannon yard have had a terrific record in this race down the years and they won it again last season with Ginger Nut, who improved for running in a bigger field after racking up her experience in smaller-field contests.
She prepped for this at Windsor, so Separate has a very similar profile. The daughter of Cable Bay also ran at Windsor on her latest start, while she’s been running well in small fields in between a few really tough assignments.
On her second start she was an eye-catching sixth in the Marygate at York, staying on well under hands and heels after finding trouble in-running, while she looked a non-stayer when beaten in the Albany Stakes over six furlongs at Royal Ascot.
With five runs now under her belt, she looks ready for a big-field five-furlong assignment, as she’s a strong traveller that looks sure to be suited by the demands of this race.
Last time at Windsor she ran well in second under a penalty, again shaping like a really strong gallop over five furlongs would be right up her street, while she has some good Newbury form in the book thanks to her debut second here on soft ground.
She’s got a tough task against the favourite, but getting 8lb will help and the deteriorating ground could blunt his class advantage as well.
Earlier on the card it’s the Marsh Cup (2.25) over two miles and a bit and this looks a tight handicap with little edges likely to play a big part.
With the potential for soft ground in mind I don’t really like the look of favourite Carnwennan, while Withhold might not appreciate such conditions after a long break and they wouldn’t be ideal for Lucky Deal, either.
Proschema and Who Dares Wins will probably enjoy a bit of cut, but they’ve been well found in the market after their Northumberland Plate runs and I prefer the chances of AL KOUT at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4, 28s and 25s generally).
Heather Main’s horse sneaks in this at the bottom of the weights and he loves soft ground, running well in such conditions and worse at Haydock on a couple of occasions.
Given he goes well at that left-handed and galloping track, Newbury should suit this horse and he comes into the race in good form after a second off the same mark at Kempton on his latest start.
What I really liked about that performance is that he battled back for second after he was headed and that trait has been seen before in this horse despite five career seconds.
He’s a battler and he might well be a tough nut to crack in the Newbury straight, as Luke Morris should be able to get a prominent pitch from stall one with very little pace pressure up against him judging by past performances.
Off a light weight he could keep on grinding things out from the front on Saturday, with the rain a huge help to him given he’s at a class disadvantage with plenty of these.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +377.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 19/07/19.
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