Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections on day five at Glorious Goodwood and he has four tips for Saturday's card including a 50/1 shot in the Stewards' Cup.
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John Quinn looks like he’s going to have his best season ever in terms of prizemoney and strike-rate this year and he’s hit a particularly rich vein of form in recent weeks with nine winners from 22 runners at an impressive 41 per cent.
It’s unwise to draw a line through anything of his at present and with that in mind I thought the 50/1 (General, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) about his REPUTATION was a huge each-way price in the Unibet Stewards’ Cup Handicap on the final day of Glorious Goodwood.
This son of Royal Applause is three from 17 in sprint handicaps over six furlongs and all of those wins have come on speedy tracks at Epsom, Ripon and York.
I particularly like that he’s won at Epsom on Derby day off a similar mark as that proves he can cope with the hustle and bustle of a big field on a downhill track and all of his victories have come on faster ground.
He’s won off marks of 85, 86 and 87, so a mark of 90 with the claiming Thore Hammer Hansen taking another 7lb off makes him of interest from a handicapping point of view and he looks to have a nice draw in 28 on the stands’ side, too, with the pacey Gifted Master drawn close by to give him a good tow into the race.
His recent form is good as well, as he won at Ripon in May and then last time, at the same track, he only went down three-quarters-of-a-length to course specialist Pipers Note with the subsequent Sky Bet Dash winner Flying Pursuit one of those beaten in behind.
Interestingly, that win at Epsom came with the visor reapplied after he ran without it for one race and Quinn has tried the same tactics here, using blinkers at Ripon last time after 11 consecutive runs in the visor.
With the visor reapplied he can go well here at a massive price and although I know very little about his jockey, he looks to have made a bright start to his career with four wins from 12 goes for his boss Richard Hannon.
I like him on the stands’ side but I want one on my side on the far side as well as there looks to be a good bit of pace over there with the likes of Solar Flair and Justanotherbottle set to take them along.
That could play into the hands of GLENAMOY LAD, drawn in two, and at 16/1 (General) he’s worth a bet as well.
This horse was highly progressive when last seen and though he’s been off the track for eight months he’s gone well fresh in the past and any concerns over his absence are quelled when you consider how much he’s improved since moving to Michael Wigham.
Rated 78 when he made the switch from Ken Condon’s, he won twice at Newmarket off 75 and 79, very cosily in the second instance, and then cruised to victory off 85 at Newcastle at the end of November by almost three lengths from Tropics.
The 10lb hike he picked up for that success was fully deserved and he could be anything, while a big-field handicap of this nature looks sure to suit given how strongly he travels in his races.
Silvestre de Sousa has been booked for the ride and he’s one of the few highly-progressive horses in the race and the only one, to my eyes, that appears to have been underestimated by the market.
Earlier on, the consolation race, the Qatar Stewards’ Sprint Handicap, opens the card and I thought the general 14/1 about OEIL DE TIGRE was a tad generous considering his exceptional record at the track.
He’s three from three at Goodwood since May, winning off marks of 69, 72 and 78 and though he was beaten into third off his new mark of 85 at Lingfield last time it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regains the winning thread back at this track.
He’s won with a late surge on each occasion in Sussex and a feature of his wins under Sophie Ralston has been his drastic drifts to his right in the closing stages.
Each time he found his way to the far rail from various positions but the good thing is on Saturday he’s drawn in three so he shouldn’t lose any ground if he makes a beeline for the far side once again.
It’s a wide open race, but I like a Tony Carroll sprinter when they get on a roll and given this horse’s love for Goodwood and his 7lb claiming jockey he’s worth a bet at 14s.
Finally, I can’t resist the 11/1 (Bet Victor, Boylesports, Coral) about SOLDIER IN ACTION in the Qatar Summer Handicap at 2.25.
Mark Johnston’s horse won the same race last year off a 9lb higher mark and though he hasn’t been in great form this season that is obviously reflected in his new rating.
This is the first time he’s been back to Goodwood, though, and he has two wins from three starts here, while it’s also the first time he’s raced off a mark in the 90s since he won at Epsom last summer.
He’s actually three from six in handicaps when running off a mark in the 90s and it’s encouraging to see De Sousa take the ride seeing as he’s one from one on him (at Goodwood, in this race last year).
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +347.18pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Posted at 1700 BST on 03/08/18.