Our racing expert Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day three of Glorious Goodwood and he's taking two against the field in the opening handicap.
Recommended Bets: Glorious Goodwood, Day Three
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Aidan O’Brien has yet to have a winner at this year’s Glorious Goodwood as we head into day three, but that’s likely to change on Thursday with Hermosa and Constantinople set to line up as favourites in the Nassau and Gordon Stakes respectively.
Hermosa steps up to 10 furlongs for the first time in the Nassau, but, she’s by Galileo, so, you know, she should thrive over the distance, and if she does improve for it it’s hard to see her getting beat.
French Oaks winner Channel rates as the main danger, while soft ground did for Deirdre at Royal Ascot and isn’t one to draw a line through on the back of that run.
However, I don’t desperately want to take on Hermosa and I don’t think there’s much wrong with the Gordon Stakes market, either.
So, it’s to the handicaps as usual for a bet and the opening Unibet Handicap (1.50) is a tricky contest, packed full of interesting three-year-olds.
William Haggas has a couple of well-fancied horses in this and loads of top yards are well represented, but the eyebrow-raising stable is Sir Michael Stoute’s as he’s not a trainer you particularly associate with handicaps.
He does like a runner in this race, though, and since he won it with Labarinto in 2011 he’s had four more goes with two of them finishing third and one second.
ALMANIA (10/1 General) is his representative this year, a horse that was thought good enough to run in the Dante on his first start this season.
He didn’t earn a shot at the Derby after that run, but he has run well in two 1m4f handicaps at Ascot since and, particularly last time, I felt he shaped as though he’d like to go a bit quicker, so I can see why connections have dropped him back to 10 furlongs.
Certainly, he wasn’t suited by the slow gallop that day, but dropping in trip in a handicap at Glorious Goodwood should solve that problem and if his stamina is brought into play then all the better.
The King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot that he was fifth in is working out well – Sir Ron Priestley, who won the second race at Goodwood on Wednesday, was 13th in that race – and he’s shown a good attitude to keep going in both of his last two runs.
He showed the same trait as a two-year-old and if he gets into a battle late on I want him on my side, while Andrea Atzeni, who rides Goodwood well, is booked to do the steering on this horse for the first time.
That’s significant, because Atzeni is three from five at Goodwood for Stoute, having won here aboard Expert Eye, Ulysses and Platitude.
He rates a solid wager and instead of going each-way I’ll double my stake on him and have a saver on THE TRADER (16/1 bet365, William Hill, Bet Victor), who regular readers of this column will know well.
We were on him at Epsom when he was second and then again at Newmarket last time when he wasn’t so good, but he was too keen early on that day and then raced on what turned out to be the wrong part of the track towards the stands’ side.
It’s getting towards last chance saloon time for him but when that saloon is Glorious Goodwood with a nice draw in stall two I can’t resist a cover bet.
Mark Johnston got instant improvement from this horse when stepping him up to 10 furlongs and has been unlucky not to get a win out of him considering his first three efforts this year in good races that worked out well.
He was disappointing after being gelded last time, but he wouldn’t be the first horse to bounce back from a poor run for this yard at Goodwood and at 16s he’s worth at least a cover shot.
Finally, the closing Tatler Handicap over five furlongs is the type of blink-and-you’ll-miss-it big field sprint I love and there’s plenty of pace on here, as you would expect.
Good Luck Fox, Glory Fighter, Top Breeze, Lufricia, Blame Roberta and Amplify are all expected to blast out of the blocks and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them set things up for a closer.
Step forward GET THE RHYTHM (12/1 William Hill, Unibet, Coral) for Richard Fahey, a horse that was outpaced on his seasonal debut at Redcar last time before he stormed home to win quite cosily.
Fahey says in his column on this site that he felt he’d need the run that day, so improvement can be expected and the form of that Redcar win has worked out really well.
The second, True Hero, was second again next time out at Newcastle, the third, Que Amoro, won by seven lengths at York last week, the fourth, Enchanted Linda, won at Catterick subsequently, and even the eighth, Key To Power, won at Lingfield on her next start.
Get The Rhythm did well to win that first time up then, when he reportedly needed it, and, up just 4lb, he’s worth backing at 12/1 in a race that looks sure to be run to suit with the excellent Sean Davis taking another 3lb off.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +368.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 31/07/19.