Free racing betting tips: Value Bet preview for Welsh Grand National at Chepstow plus Kempton
Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet previews yielded a healthy profit in 2020 and he bids to kick off the New Year in a similar vein with four Saturday fancies.
Racing betting tips: Saturday, January 9
1pt win Ami Debois in 1.45 Kempton at 25/1
1pt win Polish in 3.30 Kempton at 22/1
1pt win Solo in 3.30 Kempton at 20/1
1pt win Christmas In April in 3.10 Chepstow at 10/1
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From the turn of the year we invariably see well-treated novices sent down the handicap route in the hope of picking up valuable weekend pots, and it’s no real surprise to see Everglow top the betting for Saturday’s Ladbrokes Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle.
Highly tried in bumpers and not disgraced at a big price behind McFabulous in the Grade Two Persian War on his hurdling debut in October, he went on to be a good second to Star Gate at the same venue, before winning an Ascot maiden pretty readily in mid-December.
Handed an opening mark of 126, he might well be thrown in, especially with Star Gate now rated 145 having gone on to be second behind Bravemansgame in the Challow at Newbury.
But he also comes with risks attached, primarily the fact he’s still so inexperienced after three career starts over jumps, while the big-field handicap scenario will be alien to the horse – albeit there were 15 runners in Star Gate’s Chepstow maiden.
At the prices, and with seemingly out-of-sorts Philip Hobbs reaching for a first-time tongue-tie, he’s one I’m perfectly happy to oppose and I’m going to have two darts, firstly with fellow novice POLISH (22/1 General).
The key with his profile is that, while comparatively exposed, he has hairs on his chest, being a second-season novice with seven hurdle starts under the belt, on top of 13 Flat runs from his time with Roger Charlton and then John Gallagher.
I’ve been looking forward to him going back handicapping this time around and the fact current trainer Fergal O’Brien has waited for this race – the same course and distance over which he produced his best run last season – looks significant.
That staying-on fourth to Downtown Getaway last February could have been a whole lot better had he jumped the third-last flight cleanly, and the form reads pretty well.
This term Polish has run three times in novice company and really caught the eye over this trip when third behind Does He Know in the Grade Two Ballymore trial at Cheltenham’s November meeting.
Getting back on a flatter, right-handed track this weekend (he also won his maiden going anti-clockwise at Ludlow) looks a big plus and I’d expect him to have been freshened up nicely following a 57-day break.
The other horse to be on at the odds is top-weight SOLO (20/1 bet365), who Paul Nicholls has stated might still need some more help from the assessor.
With a Betfair Hurdle entry looming large next month perhaps we’re jumping the gun backing him here, but you’d go poor pretty quickly if you took all trainer quotes for granted and I reckon he could improve enormously for the first run over two miles, five furlongs.
This horse made a massive impression when winning last year’s Adonis Hurdle by 13 lengths on his UK debut at this course and went into the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham as a 4/1 shot with an official rating of 157.
After a mid-pack finish there he was gelded and, just three runs later, now gets to compete off a 13lb lower mark. That’s a fairly rapid drop in the ratings for such a highly-regarded, low-mileage, five-year-old of his ilk, and he clearly couldn’t be in better hands.
Most precocious juveniles tend to improve with distance as they grow up and he’s certainly looked in need of more of a test in the two public appearances so far this season, finishing fourth in the Grade Two Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, before a fifth to Benson in a hot Listed handicap at Sandown early last month.
A rapid resurgence back at Kempton looks perfectly plausible and I certainly can’t let him go unbacked at 20/1 (bet365, BetVictor).
Riders Onthe Storm might become a betting proposition if getting any bigger (5/1 at time of publication) against Imperial Aura, Master Tommytucker and Clondaw Castle in the Ladbrokes Silviniaco Conti Chase, but I doubt many people will be desperate to oppose McFabulous in the Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle.
Preference is for a bet in the Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Chase, where AMI DEBOIS (25/1 General) looks over-priced.
He pulled-up in the Masters Handicap Chase at Sandown when last sighted which was back in February, but he’d previously run a fantastic race when splitting Big River – a close fifth in the Ultima subsequently – and Jessie Harrington’s good cross-country performer Neverushacon - he’s won two races of that type since - at Kelso 12 months ago.
Big River does the business once again at his beloved @KelsoRacecourse to land a sixth win at the track in the £14,000 handicap chase for @lucindavrussell & Derek Fox:
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) January 12, 2020
🏆 January 2020
🏆 February 2018
🏆 October 2017
🏆 March 2017
🏆 October 2015
🏆 March 2015 pic.twitter.com/EyTTA8gWBn
He races from just a 2lb higher mark here and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him razor-sharp fitness-wise on his first run back as he has a pretty respectable record when fresh. In total, his form figures after a break of 50 days or more read 4011U02.
His trainer Graeme McPherson, who had a 28/1 mares' bumper winner at Lingfield on Friday, on top of a second and third at Newcastle, has been quietly ticking along at a decent rate all season, and half of his 24 Kempton runners over the years have finished inside the first four.
He’s also struck up a decent little partnership with Ami Debois’s conditional jockey Lilly Pinchin (70 rides, 10 winners, 8 thirds and 7 fourths), and Saturday will be the first time they utilise her valuable 5lb claim on this horse.
With stamina doubts over one or two of the market principals, and Commodore creeping back up the weights in spite of defeat, it looks an ideal race to unearth one at a big price and Ami Debois could go really well.
The Coral Welsh Grand National is the big betting race if Chepstow beats the freeze and I’m happy to supplement the strong antepost position on CHRISTMAS IN APRIL with another bet at 10/1.
Colin Tizzard is another one of those powerhouse trainers currently scratching around for winners but with a yard of that size it's simply a matter of time before the tide turns quite dramatically, and the 11 entries this weekend suggest there’s nothing untoward with the string in general.
Importantly, Christmas In April was finishing his race off really well when second on his seasonal return at Fontwell in mid-November and the horse he crossed the line alongside, Doing Fine, has come out and won the London National at Sandown.
The Tizzard horse is au fait with National success himself, having won the Sussex National at Plumpton and the Devon National at Exeter as a novice last season, and he was sent off favourite for the Midlands National won by Truckers Lodge at Uttoxeter.
It seems his long season had just about caught up with him there as he eventually pulled-up but the reappearance run shows he’s back on the right track and a bold-jumping, prominent racer has proved to be a lethal combination in this event down the years.
There’s clearly competition for the early lead but they tend to slow it right down before halfway and that puts me off anything that could be looking to come from too far back in the pack.
Published at 1600 GMT on 08/01/21
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