Our racing expert Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day two of the Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket and he fancies Ralph Beckett and Harry Bentley to team up with a winner.
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The Cambridgeshire meeting steps up a gear on day two at Newmarket and while there are no handicaps to get stuck into, amongst the live ITV4 races anyway, the group races offer some good punting opportunities.
The race of the day is the Group 2 Shadwell Joel Stakes where King Of Comedy bids to bounce back from his Juddmonte International defeat, but the opposition is strong with Benbatl, Zaaki, Happy Power and the fascinating UAE Jewel in opposition.
I couldn’t find a bet in that race, but I am keen to take on Maqsad in the Listed Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes earlier on (1.50).
William Haggas’ filly looked on great terms with herself when winning over 10 furlongs at this track back in May, but defeats in the Oaks and the Nassau Stakes subsequently have blotted her copybook and I’m not sure dropping in trip to a mile is the answer.
Her class could well see her through, but at 9/4 I’m eager to take her on and the one to be with is Ralph Beckett’s filly CHALEUR at 8/1 (bet365, 7/1 General).
This daughter of Dansili is extremely unexposed after just seven runs and she’s never run a bad race, her worst effort in positional terms being her fourth place on the July Course on her return from 287 days off back in July.
Since then she's run two crackers in defeat, firstly at Goodwood where she stayed on well for a one-length third off a mark of 97, proving she stays a mile well, while last time she improved again when a half-length third in a hot handicap at York.
That was over seven furlongs and the combination of the trip and nature of the track probably did for her, while she’s strongly fancied to reverse the form with Agincourt from 5lb better terms.
A mile at Newmarket on good ground looks perfect for her and she won at this meeting last year, in nursery company, by a length-and-a-half, despite her jockey saying she did everything wrong.
What she did right was travel strongly, so she was clearly at home at the track and Beckett, who is in good form, looks to have pointed her at this contest from a long way out, saying last year that he thought she was capable of winning in Listed company and over a mile.
With Maqsad having questions to answer, Clon Coulis needing luck in-running (and probably more rain, too) from off the pace and with She’s Got You having enough to find on the formbook, it’s Chaleur that stands out at the prices.
In the Group 3 Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes (2.25) we have another well-fancied horse to take on in Promissory, another for the John Gosden-Frankie Dettori combination, and she ran well behind Sir Ron Priestley in Group Three company at Goodwood last time out.
That was just her third run, though, and experience could be her undoing on Friday, so it could be worth looking elsewhere and the underestimated one looks to be Roger Varian’s RASIMA at 12/1 (General).
She's the joint second-highest rated horse in the race, largely thanks to her excellent effort behind Royal Line in the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton last time out where she finished amongst 10 horses rated 105 and higher, beating five of them.
It was a bit of a messy race and trusting the form implicitly would be foolish, while it was obviously on the all-weather as well, so she's far from guaranteed to back up the performance in pure form terms.
However, it's not as if she’s priced up to do so, far from it, and it’s not the only good piece of form she has in her profile, while it was her first go over 1m4f in the cheekpieces.
I do think it went some way to proving she stays the trip and she looks a stronger filly than this time last year, where she was swamped in the final furlong for an eventual fifth place in this very race.
Her defeat of Move Swiftly at Lingfield after that is another example of her quality and she looks to have been gradually getting better throughout the campaign, so much so that a season’s and subsequently career-best effort wouldn’t be a surprise.
Posted at 1700 BST on 26/09/19
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +355.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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