Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for York and Newmarket on Friday

Recommended bets, Friday October 9

1pt win Baronial Pride in 2.05 York at 28/1

1pt win Indigo Lake in 4.10 Newmarket at 22/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Exciting stuff on ITV Racing on Friday and it’s superb to see Shale and Pretty Gorgeous renew their rivalry on these shores in the bet365 Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket.

The fact they’re trained by the O’Brien brothers adds another dimension to their private mini-battle to become champion juvenile filly in Europe, though John Gosden’s progressive, and unbeaten, Indigo Girl could yet muscle in on the Irish match-up.

She ended up beating Dubai Fountain a shade more cosily than the official distance (three quarters of a length) suggests in the May Hill at Doncaster, but she’s obviously being priced up primarily on potential as the bare form leaves her a bit behind the Moyglare one-two.

The prospect of much slower ground is likely to play to the strengths of Joseph O’Brien’s Pretty Gorgeous, the strong-travelling daughter of Lawman having beaten Shale on soft in the Debutante at the Curragh in August, but it could also help Mother Earth bridge the gap on the big two, while Roger Varian’s lightly-raced Frankel filly Zabeel Queen – only third in the May Hill – promises to cope with conditions well too.

Dubai Fountain won on bad ground at Haydock earlier in the year and will presumably put the pace to the race under P J McDonald from stall one. She may well be the each-way play if you’re keen on a small interest in the day’s feature, but it’s a race I can leave alone.

The bet365 Old Rowley Cup Handicap is a belting betting heat and I’m surprised to see INDIGO LAKE (22/1 Hills) available at such a big price.

The race was basically designed for horses like him – a big, backward colt at two who is probably only just getting the hang of the game as his three-year-old campaign draws to a conclusion.

Time off the track and being gelded clearly helped when capitalising on a very favourable handicap mark (78) at Doncaster on his seasonal return in mid-June and the horse he beat that day – namely Favorite Moon – will most likely be favourite for one of York’s big handicaps on Friday, racing off a mark of 95.

So despite another 6lb hike for his back-to-form, easy Newcastle win last month, Indigo Lake is evidently still ahead of the assessor from his revised rating of 91 and, in truth, I’m pretty convinced he’s a Group horse who has been masquerading as a handicapper all along.

He’s certainly bred to be better than he’s often shown; his full-brother Obligate won Listed and Group 2 races last year and ran in the Prix du Moulin won by Circus Maximus. Indigo Lake’s dam was an unraced half-sister to a bunch of top-class winners, including Champs Elysees, so it’s no great surprise the son of Frankel gets this mile and a half trip really well.

Not only does he stay (tried over 1m6f in July to no avail), but he travels too. He sauntered all over his rivals at Newmarket’s July course on his penultimate start, only to doss about when getting to the front before handing the initiative back to stablemate To Nathaniel close home.

I can forgive him that – rather, I can forgive Martin Harley, who was having his first ride on the quirky sort – especially after Rab Havlin steered him to an impressive win on the Tapeta last time out.

Havlin knows him well now, having been on board for the majority of his starts, and although he’s generally ridden him fairly prominently, I think he’ll try and switch him off near the back in this big field before coming with a late run.

He may have little choice from stall 15 but that’s not such a bad slot at all here as you can get a bit boxed in down by the rail, and the last four winners of this particular race have broken from double-figure stalls (17, 15, 10 and 17).

The testing going is presumably one of the reasons he’s trading at such an inflated price – he has never raced on soft – but not many Frankels don’t handle a bit of dig in the autumn and it’s not too hard to envisage him actually improving for it. If that’s the case he’ll be really hard to keep out of contention.

Gosden’s Logician is back in action in the rescheduled Betsafe Cumberland Lodge Stakes up at York.

I was quite happy to take him on the other week at Ascot, especially where Highland Chief had won so well under top weight at the Royal meeting. But Logician absolutely powered up the Knavesmire in last year’s Great Voltigeur and I’m less inclined to oppose him here, though I'm still to be convinced his fluent action will be best served when the mud is flying.

I don’t really fancy taking a punt against the aforementioned Favorite Moon either in the Betsafe Handicap, so I’ll focus on the Betsafe Double Winnings Handicap over a trip just short of a mile.

Seven of the 20 declared are entered up in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day later in the month but only Hortzadar and Alternative Fact are likely to make the cut for the big race at Ascot on their current marks.

It could be rather more touch and go for horses like Shelir, Plantadream and Crownthorpe. The latter won this race last year and was a huge eyecatcher in the way that he ran on into third at Haydock a fortnight ago.

Richard Fahey’s horse is only 1lb higher in the weights than for the course win so everything looks in place for another massive run, but his price evaporated quite quickly after declarations and I’m more drawn to the stablemate BARONIAL PRIDE (28/1 bet365, 18/1 generally).

He’s one of the least exposed runners in the line-up with only eight starts to his name, and only six of those on turf. The light profile is a result of him picking up an injury and missing his entire three-year-old campaign but he was promising at two and looked to retain all that ability, and more, in a couple of outings at the start of 2020.

Given his maiden win came on soft ground at Hamilton, the son of Mayson looks to have been deliberately put away for a back-end programme and, while nothing in his pedigree really screams he’ll improve for the move up to a mile, it certainly looked that way at Newcastle when fourth to Glen Shiel at Newcastle in January.

He was denied a clear run that day and suffered the same fate when last seen over the same seven furlongs at the Gosforth Park track, and he just shaped like a horse who could have loads in the locker when finally getting the rub of the green.

Well-being has to be taken on trust after another 233 days off and whether or not a huge handicap around York will result in a change of fortune is another question entirely, but I’d be amazed if Fahey left much to work on fitness-wise with conditions as they are and stall 12 doesn’t look a bad place to be under Ben Curtis.

Curtis has surprisingly yet to have a winner at York this year (0-30) and might not be operating quite at his very best since being handed a hefty suspension after breaching Covid-19 protocols at Newmarket, but you can’t keep a quality jockey like him down for too long and his record this year for Fahey is quite tidy (2-9). The money has come for him on Friday but anything north of 16/1 looks perfectly fair.

Posted at 1530 BST on 08/10/20

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