Our racing expert Ben Linfoot has three Value Bet selections for day three of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival at York including two at huge prices.
Recommended Bets: Ebor Festival, Day Three
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*Tamleek is a non-runner (Going)
Ten Sovereigns versus Battaash is a licking-your-lips clash for the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Friday but there is the potential for another boil over in the race.
We’ve had 100/1, 40/1, 40/1 and 20/1 winners of this contest in the last 10 years, unusual for a Group One, but this is a pretty unique top-level contest.
The only other Group One sprint over five furlongs in Britain is the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot, on a much stiffer track, so this is a very different test for the elite sprinters.
Battaash should be ideal for it, but, for whatever reason, he’s fluffed his lines here the last couple of years, so it will be Ten Sovereigns who will likely be sent off favourite following his July Cup romp.
That was over six furlongs, of course, and he was very strong at the end of the race. Did he scream five-furlong Group One winner after that? Not really, to my eyes, although he’s clearly a very talented six-furlong horse on his favoured fast ground.
He might get away with the trip due to his ability, but I could never back a horse at 6/4 for a Nunthorpe with that as a caveat, so I’d rather back one each-way against both him and Battaash.
Mabs Cross is the obvious one after her heart-breaking defeat in last year’s renewal, but she was chinned by an outsider in Alpha Delphini that day and big-priced horses have flourished in this race.
With that in mind I’m backing COPPER KNIGHT each-way at 66/1 (William Hill, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3) as he has a good chance of holding on for a place, considering his course form, and he might even land the jackpot if the big two don’t turn up.
This horse was a bargain buy for the Easterbys, having been bought out of Hugo Palmer’s for 5,000gns, and he’s won over 36 times that number for his connections since thanks to eight victories and a flurry of good placed efforts.
Four of those victories have come at York and he simply loves the place.
In fact, he’s won three of his last four here; a handicap off 92, a handicap off 100 and a Listed race, while his only defeat was a third-place finish off 105 in a handicap in May, where he just failed to give around 20lb to both Duke Of Firenze and Dark Shot.
That was a serious effort and one that suggests he can hold his own in group company when granted the right conditions – and an 11-runner race on the Knavesmire on good to firm and drying ground is absolutely perfect for him.
He’ll be close-up, possibly taking a lead off Ornate and El Astronaute, but he should be well placed to strike and though we are relying on the big two running below form it’s not out of the question.
In the Gimcrack Richard Hannon’s Threat is the one to beat but he has tasted defeat on his last two starts and he takes so much out of the market it’s worth backing one each-way against him.
Kevin Ryan has won the race three times in the last seven years and he runs three this time around, with the outsider of the trio, BYLINE (25/1 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3), appealing at the prices.
He’s a half-brother to both Bogart and Blaine, who both won at this meeting as juveniles for Ryan, the latter in this very race, while his sire, Muhaarar, won the Gimcrack, too.
It’s an obvious port of call for him, then, and he was impressive at Hamilton on his second start, making the most of his experience to win very easily from a field including newcomers.
That bare form looks nothing special, but he’s hugely unexposed and could well take off now he meets good company for the first time, something that wouldn’t be a surprise considering his family and his trainer.
It’s not really factored into his price, though, so he’s worth chancing with stall one looking no bad thing in a race that is probably a bit more wide open than the betting suggests.
Finally, another out of the ballpark selection on a day where quite a few at big prices appeal.
The opening Sky Bet Handicap is deep in quality but I thought 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4, Betway 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) quotes were a bit big about David O’Meara’s TAMLEEK and he’s another worth chancing each-way.
He ran in a Derby trial when with Saeed bin Suroor and was rated 107 when not beaten far in Raheen House’s Bahrain Trophy, but that was two years ago and he’s hardly been seen since.
Returning in the spring for O’Meara having been gelded, he ran a race full of promise in a Doncaster conditions event on the back of 606 days off in March, finishing amongst rivals rated from 95 to 110.
Dropped to 96 after that, he ran over 10 furlongs in handicap company back at Doncaster on August 3 and actually ran on quite nicely for seventh over a trip short of his best.
It was surprising, then, that the handicapper dropped him 6lb in one go, allowing him to race off 90 on Friday back over a mile-and-a-half.
This is tough and he could be outclassed by in-form rivals, but, from towards the foot of the weights, he looks dangerous from a handicapping perspective and although the 50s has unfortunately disappeared the 33s remains fair.
Posted at 1700 BST on 22/08/19.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +362.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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