David Ord, Matt Brocklebank and John Ingles answer the big questions ahead of Sunday's Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Idaho Sun is clear favourite for the Unibet Greatwood – are you for or against?
David Ord: Well, he’s three from three over hurdles and a Grade One winner from Mydaddypaddy in the Formby at Aintree. You can see why he tops the list. But he does lack experience, he’s only had five runs under Rules and the hurdles in the home straight were all bypassed when he won last Boxing Day. It’s his first run since and while an opening mark of 142 could easily underestimate him, I’m happy to look elsewhere at the prices.
John Ingles: I’d have to say against for all that he’s only been beaten once. Some will point to the fact that he has won first time out in both his campaigns, but winning a Greatwood is a bit different from a Newton Abbot bumper and a maiden hurdle at Fontwell. Beating Mydaddypaddy at Aintree has done his handicap mark no favours either and with 11-12 to carry, he’s going to be up against some better treated rivals.
Matt Brocklebank: That sort of antepost price doesn't interest me at all as there's got to be a chance he won't even line up. If he's declared then there must be enough juice in the ground (officially seem optimistic about getting water down Saturday night into Sunday) and he's a huge player off a mark of 142 based on what he achieved last season. It's a wait and see from me really regarding Harry Fry's horse.
Dan Skelton again has a strong hand – what’s the pick of his team?
David Ord: The market just about prefers Let It Rain who is capable of better but I have marginal preference for Harry Lowes. He’s always going to be of interest given connections but he shaped very well in two handicaps last season including when a promoted second in the conditional jockeys’ race at Aintree in which Laafi was first past the post.
The five-year-old Harry Lowes had loads to do at the top of the straight and ran into traffic problems three out before rattling home and passing six rivals from the second last. He’s only up four pound and had a nice pipe-opener in a charity race at Nottingham recently.
John Ingles: Let It Rain looks potentially the best handicapped among them but rain is just what she wants and it remains to be seen if it will be soft enough for her. Otherwise, I agree the interesting one is Harry Lowes who is unexposed and ended last season running a belter in a competitive handicap at Aintree, giving the impression he would have won if things had panned out more smoothly for him.
Matt Brocklebank: If Dave's in a marginal preference then I'd strongly prefer Harry Lowes of the Skelton brigade. The two outsiders have precious little chance and I think Let It Rain is well named and might be held back for once the heavens open. Harry Lowes looks the one to be with although The Mighty Celt as least has a pipe-opener behind him this autumn so more could be expected second time out than he was able to show at Chepstow.
Money this week for Pioneer Pete – can you see why?
David Ord: Yes. He’s won four of his last five and the only defeat in that sequence came when second to Avalo, beaten a short-head, on handicap debut at Punchestown. He put his race fitness to good use when winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle last time and this will be only his third run this sphere. But the handicapper has a bit more evidence now and he’s up another eight pounds in deeper waters.
John Ingles: He’s never finished out of the frame and comes here looking for a four-timer so he’s got that going for him, but he was ridden to exploit any lack of fitness in his rivals when winning the Welsh Champion Hurdle last month and it’s going to be a harder task to make all here having been put up 8 lb for that win.
Matt Brocklebank: He's race-fit, on the improve and absolutely fine with top-of-the-ground conditions. I'm beginning to wonder why I'm not on the gamble now! But he's a single-figure price and up in grade so needs to pull out a bit more to be winning here.
Who’s towards the top of your shortlist right now?
David Ord: If he was definitely running Harry Lowes would be at around 8/1 with one firm. At a bigger price The Hardest Geezer ran well on his return here in the Showcase and is entitled to come forward for it. He was fourth in a warm handicap at Windsor in January form a pound higher and could be in the mix in this.
John Ingles: I think a good case can be made for Harry Lowes, though given the support for Pioneer Pete it’s surprising that Morning Mayhem is at such huge odds. He’s been on the go since the start of the season but remains in form, chasing home Pioneer Pete at Chepstow and then finishing to eye-catching effect at Ascot last time, and this stiff finish should be right up his street.
Matt Brocklebank: I'll put forward a couple of early suggestions in Mossy Fen Road and Captain Hugo. Mossy Fen Road is trained by Harry Derham who must have a strong connection with this race having ridden Brampour to victory for Paul Nicholls back in 2011 and he's always had a high opinion of this horse. He's still got potential and I think that might also apply to Captain Hugo, winner of the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso during his novice campaign. It would be so poignant if Philip Hobbs and Johnson White were able to win a big race at Cheltenham this weekend following the death of Tom O'Brien and Captain Hugo will surely be better off for his quiet comeback run last month.
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