Our Ben Linfoot answers the burning questions heading into Trials Day at Cheltenham on Saturday.
Has Trials Day done its job in recent years?
As one of the last ports of call before the Festival at the track where the March magic happens Cheltenham Trials Day appeals to many a trainer and it’s a day that has indeed done its job in terms of finding Festival winners over the years.
Looking at the last 10 years a total of 23 Festival winners had their last outing before their March success on Trials Day and in that timeframe every year that Trials Day has taken place (it was abandoned due to waterlogging in 2021) it has found at least one Festival winner.
Some were obvious, like Thistlecrack winning the Stayers’ Hurdle in 2016 after his Cleeve Hurdle romp, while Lossiemouth landed the Mares’ Hurdle at 8/13 last season after sluicing up in the Unibet Hurdle in January.
Horses like Peace And Co, Un De Sceaux, Paisley Park and Energumene can also be filed in the ‘more obvious drawer’ but other Festival winners were harder to find after their Trials Day effort.
Cole Harden landed the Stayers’ Hurdle at 14/1 in 2015 after only finishing fourth in the Cleeve, Lisnagar Oscar raised the stakes in that genre when winning the Stayers’ at 50/1 after his Cleeve third in 2020 and Un Temps Pour Tout was twice a handicap winner at the Festival after finishing fourth and sixth on Trials Day.
Coole Cody and Unexpected Party also won Festival handicaps after lesser efforts in January, so it’s worth casting an eye on the also-rans as well as the winners when searching through the Trials Day clues ahead of Cheltenham.
There’ll be plenty of those this year, while the obvious horses include East India Dock, Constitution Hill and Potters Charm.
How will Sauvignon go down against East India Dock?
With wet weather forecast in the early hours of Friday we are probably looking at soft ground for Trials Day and that will ask a different question of East India Dock in the opening JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial.
James Owen’s horse is currently second favourite for the Triumph behind last weekend’s impressive Ascot winner Lulamba, but both of his hurdling successes have come on good ground and it remains to be seen if he’s as effective on slower conditions.
He might be and if he is he’ll probably shorten again from his current 6/1, but Sauvignon has the potential to be the big shortener from 33/1 in the Triumph betting on his debut for Paul Nicholls.
The Johnny de la Hey purchase won on soft and heavy ground in France and there looks to be some substance to his form with Sony Bill, second to him in a Listed race at Auteuil, finishing third in a Leopardstown Grade 2 on his debut for Willie Mullins at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.
Sauvignon is rated 1lb higher than East India Dock on that French form, so if the handicappers are right and conditions do swing things in his favour he could be a plunge horse for the Triumph come 1pm on Saturday.
Who can enhance their Festival claims in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase?
A total of 10 Festival winners this century ran in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on their last start before Cheltenham and seven of those have come since 2015 in the form of Irish Cavalier, Un Temps Pour Tout, Mister Whitaker, Imperial Aura, Simply The Betts, Stage Star and Unexpected Party.
The chances of the Timeform race delivering another Festival winner have arguably increased this year with the return of the Novices’ Handicap Chase, now an open Grade 2 with no ceiling rating run over the extended 2m4f on the New Course on the Thursday.
This race is going to appeal to the better novices who look just short of Grade 1 class and who prefer the intermediate distance, so Alan King’s Masaccio immediately springs to mind.
Beaten by the talented The Jukebox Man on his last two starts, he looked a non-stayer in the Kauto Star and 2m4f is probably his trip, while softer ground is a potential factor for improvement.
This looks a fact-finding mission in regards to his suitability for Cheltenham, but a positive showing here will put him right in the mix for the new novices’ handicap chase at the Festival.
Can either of Ginny’s Destiny or Stage Star bounce back for Nicholls?
Both have fantastic records at Cheltenham, but both have been tremendously disappointing this season. It looks the perfect time for one or both of them to step up.
Ginny’s Destiny looks the more obvious one to bounce back in the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase. He ran okay in the Peterborough Chase behind Sunday’s Windsor one-two Protektorat and Djelo and dropping to a mark of 152 gives him a realistic chance back in handicap company over a course and distance he won over in the Timeform race on this day 12 months ago.
Stage Star steps up to three miles for the first time in his life in the Betfair Cotswold Chase and he looks worth a go at it after his struggles over an intermediate trip on his last four runs.
On his best form he has the class to have a say in this type of race, but giving 4lb to a proven stayer like L’Homme Presse looks a really difficult task on his first go in a staying chase, for all that he's an interesting contender.
How will L’Homme Presse fare second time up?
It might be on some punters' minds that L’Homme Presse slightly regressed first to second start last season following a break when he was beaten by Pic D’Orhy at Ascot after winning on the Winter Million card at Lingfield a month earlier.
But that was over 2m5f on good to soft ground against an Ascot specialist, going right-handed, and this Saturday’s Cotswold Chase looks a much better spot for him.
He ran well in third in the King George last time, but the ground was probably too quick for him and he once again shaped like he was desperate to jump left-handed.
With two Cheltenham wins in the bag, as well as a Gold Cup fourth, he’s back at a track he likes going his preferred anti-clockwise on ground that should be ideal.
The fact he gets weight from Gentlemansgame, Capodanno, Ga Law and Stage Star only enhances his claims and he looks a likely short-price favourite who can deliver this weekend, for all that it will be difficult for him to follow up at the Festival if he takes on Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup once again.
What Festival race will Lossiemouth be going for after the Unibet Hurdle?
First of all let’s hope she runs at Cheltenham in the Unibet Hurdle on Saturday or else Constitution Hill will probably be a 1/25 chance.
You can see the logic in running her. Willie Mullins can find out now if he has a mare who can put it up to Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.
The evidence from Kempton was inconclusive. She didn’t look herself, perhaps the ground was too quick or the track too sharp or both. At Cheltenham she is three from three and Friday’s rain looks in her favour.
If she gets blown away by Constitution Hill here, she’ll go for the Mares’ Hurdle. If she beats him or at least runs him fairly close and gives him a race, she’ll go for the Champion.
My gut feeling? If she runs Saturday, I think she’ll end up going for the Champion.
What should we watch out for in the Cleeve?
Finally, the Betfair Cleeve Hurdle has been one of the best trials for Cheltenham with 11 Festival winners running their last race before March in the Cleeve this century.
The Druids Nephew and Un Temps Pour Tout went and won handicap chases after Trials Day, but the other nine all went on to land the Stayers’ Hurdle and the likes of Crambo and Strong Leader will be hoping to enhance their claims against Teahupoo this time around.
Olly Murphy’s Strong Leader is arguably the interesting one, as the ground went against him at Ascot and a wind issue has been addressed since the Long Walk, as well.
He has already run well in a Cleeve Hurdle after finishing third last year, but Friday’s forecast rain looks the big negative for all that he looked every inch a player in the Stayers’ division when he romped away with the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree last April.
That could be his calling once again, but Saturday will tell his trainer whether it’s worth taking in the Stayers’ on the way to Merseyside. A defeat, even in less-than-ideal soft ground, will in all likelihood result in him swerving the Festival.
As for the also-rans, it has to be worth keeping an eye on Transmission, trained by The Druids Nephew’s handler Neil Mulholland. He’s had the four qualifying runs a novice needs to run in a handicap chase at the Festival and all three of his runs this season have come at Cheltenham.
A mark of 133 leaves him right on the cusp of getting in races like the Ultima, but he’ll have other options at the Festival and a spin around Prestbury Park in the Cleeve could be the perfect platform from which he can attack in seven weeks’ time.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
