Trackside Live: Horses to Follow from the recent actiom

Maybe Not (Ralph Beckett)
2 October Newmarket - CopyBet Fillies' Handicap

This feels like sacrilege. Journey all the way to Newmarket for Two-Year-Old Day and put up a horse-to-follow from the three-year-old fillies’ handicap, a race which no-one can provide a definitive answer about why it exists on the juvenile card.

Yet it’s hard not to draw everyone’s attention to a filly who believed the pre-parade at Newmarket was her own catwalk. We see so many horses on a week-to-week basis and not many get the affirmation of ‘beautiful’, but Maybe Not is a worthy recipient. She’s big with the walk to match, and the easy grace of a woman who knows she’s special.

Her racing record is fair but not reflective of the appearance. Unable to win as a juvenile, she recorded handicap victories at both Ffos Las and Kempton before stepping up to Class 3 company with a success at Southwell. Only fourth at Newmarket, she feels like a filly who will improve if kept in training at four – her frame is big enough to suggest further progression likely and with careful race planning, Maybe Not looks like a future Black Type winner in the making.

Guesstimate (William Haggas)
22 October Newmarket - Free Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes

Our methodology of working through a race for horses-to-follow is checking; notes against result. Needed the run but ran well causes immediate interest, and that was the case with William Haggas’ Guesstimate.

On paper, she was beaten a long way into third in a race which favoured a prominent position, having always stayed in touch with the front pair before making some headway under Cieren Fallon. The quality of the race is questionable and she was always in the right place, but this is a filly who definitely needed the run.

She is also bred to stay, so a solid third over seven furlongs appears fairly commendable. By Sea The Moon, the filly is out of the regally bred Approximate, a daughter of Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup winning mare Estimate, and should benefit from a step up in trip next season. She isn’t a world-beater, but a useful fillies handicap over a middle distance appears well within her remit.

Ashdown Forest (Ed Walker)
23 October Nottingham – Download The PricedUp App Handicap

In a card full of competitive handicaps at a mid-week Nottingham meeting, the eight-runner 2m1f stamina test didn’t catch the eye as a likely supplier of a horse-to-follow, but we roll with the punches at Trackside.

Who knows what Ashdown Forest’s future looks like, but if jumping ends up being his game, he received some insight as to what it could look like when coming home third in a strung-out finish akin to the end of a handicap chase.

Placed third on handicap debut over 1m6f at Haydock, the son of Camelot was still showing signs of inexperience in the paddock at Nottingham, sweating lightly and tense as he took in his surroundings. He stayed in touch with the leaders early on and appeared to not perform on the ground, weakening in the closing stages for a seventeen-and-a-half length third.

The dam has produced a Black Type performer on the flat and over jumps, so Ashdown Forest’s career options are versatile. Back on a sounder surface, he looks a likely type for staying handicaps next year.

Leader Crik (Nigel & Willie Twiston-Davies)
24 October, Cheltenham - 2m3½f Novice Hurdle

Time to unpack the first weekend of the new Cheltenham Season. To be honest I could do you a column on it’s own on the weekend but we’ll go with the headlines, and Leader Crik is one I’d like to be keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.

It’s been a weekend to forget for the Twiston-Davies team. They came with a few good chances and went away with form figures of PP7767705, clearly not what they were hoping for. Un Sens A La Vie was the big disappointment but others, like Leader Crik, look like longer term projects and I’d not be giving up off the back of his effort here.

Essentially a tall, scopey sort that will surely jump a fence in time, he’s going to take a bit of time to grow into his frame and perhaps just found even this too sharp a test on ground that was nowhere near as soft as we might have imagined it was going to be at the start of the day. Essentially, one to keep onside; don’t be charging in next time but improvement will come at some point this year.

Gold For Alec (Tom Symonds)
24 October, Cheltenham - 2m Handicap Hurdle

By contrast, I’d say Gold For Alec’s turn isn’t far away, and if they step him back up to a trip around 2m4f (I think he’ll get 2m6f fine) next time and the ground is desperate, I’d probably want to be on.

He looked fit and well for his reappearance here and was just about the pick of the paddock, for all he got himself a touch warm as his jigged his way around the paddock late on. He had the cruising speed to keep up with the main pack but was probably left with a touch too much to do, and he stayed on well up the hill to claim a close enough third, doing all his best work late. His win at Huntingdon last year came over half a mile further, and his previous form at Chepstow worked out well too, all suggesting his current mark is workable. Should be up to winning something similar and he’ll not mind the rain that’s (finally) on the way.

Tiny Tetley (Philip Hobbs/Jackson White)
25 October, Cheltenham - 3m Handicap Hurdle

There were a few you could take from the Pertemps Qualifier as needing the run, but not winner Ma Shantou, who, from the moment he stepped into the pre-parade ring, jumped out at you as being ready for the day. Third home Supremely West will come on a touch and fourth Long Draw, despite looking about ready, had a little post-race blow too. But further back in seventh, I thought Tiny Tetley was one that would benefit greatly for the pipe-opener and he very much shaped that way too.

Held up just behind the leaders, he gave best turning in and looked a tired horse when jumping left at the last, but he kept on well and gave more than enough encouragement that he might be able to bag another handicap or two and carry on his good work of last year when winning three on the bounce, including the Challenger Final at Haydock. He’s won on everything from good to firm to heavy ground, with his improvement last year coming on the top of the ground, and he might be one to think about around Kempton this winter, should connections decide to go that way.

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